Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Traverse City, MI
June 16, 2024 2:47 PM EDT (18:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 9:24 PM Moonrise 3:14 PM Moonset 1:38 AM |
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1027 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .
Today - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts to 25 knots. Scattered showers in the late morning, then numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 161730 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Multiple rounds of showers into this evening.
- Isolated severe storms, locally heavy rainfall possible tonight.
- High heat and humidity begins this Monday and continues through the entirety of the long term forecast period.
- Chances of showers and storms expected at times this week.
UPDATE
Issued at 949 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
No significant changes needed to the inherited forecast. Weak shortwave trough and persistent warm, moist advection kicking off light showers this morning, especially across eastern upper Michigan. Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms working their way in from Wisconsin. Expect these showers to spread overhead this afternoon. Not expecting anything severe out of this activity as they outrun west displaced instability axis.
Temperatures will recover into the 70s and lower 80s across northern lower Michigan before cooling some with arrival of thicker clouds and showers this afternoon. Clouds look to keep eastern upper considerably more cool...perhaps not even reaching 70 degrees for some areas.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Pattern Synopsis:
Mid/upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes will slide east as a shortwave quickly lifts across the region this afternoon and evening. The associated surface response looks to work across Wisconsin/far northern Great Lakes into tonight. More expansive, dominant ridging will establish itself over most of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River by Monday morning.
Forecast Details:
Multiple rounds of showers into this evening -- Ongoing light rain showers on the periphery of low/mid-level warm advection will continue over the next few hours before exiting to the northeast later this morning. A brief break in rain chances is anticipated through the remainder of the morning before a second round of showers associated with the aforementioned shortwave works in from the west beginning early this afternoon and will persist into this evening. Dry low-level profiles will work to inhibit heavier rainfall for a time, despite saturated profiles aloft. Little to no thunder is anticipated with this activity given the lack of buoyancy from moist adiabatic profiles aloft.
Isolated severe storms, locally heavy rainfall possible tonight -- As warm, moist advection continues across the Great Lakes, steep lapse rates will arrive on the heels of aforementioned activity to provide ample elevated instability to support thunderstorm chances later this evening and tonight. Current confidence in how potential convection later this evening and tonight will evolve is low.
Additional scattered storms may form after previously mentioned showers depart east along/to the north of the partially modified outflow boundary. Where exactly this boundary sets sets up, and if/how much convection forms along it are the main sources of uncertainty. With that said, the potential for west-east training convection exists in the vicinity this boundary later this evening and tonight -- and with PWATs near/exceeding climatological max values and ample instability in place, locally heavy rainfall of 1" or more will be possible across far northern lower/eastern upper Michigan should training convection develop. An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out as well, with the primary hazards being large hail and gusty winds.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Previous forecast discussion remains true as midlevel subtropical ridging is expected to build this Monday across the eastern half of North America and remain in place for the majority of the long term.
This pattern will support a hot and humid air mass to advect from the Gulf region into the Great Lakes region.
Aformentioned ridging will start to slowly break down throughout the work week, but keep temperatures well above average for mid June.
The baroclinic zone is set to remain north of the CWA, but embedded height disturbances along the ridge will continue chances of showers and storms at times this week, but no heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected at this time.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
-High heat and humidity begins this Monday and continues through the entirety of the long term forecast period: Hottest days of the long term remain to be Monday and Tuesday as temperatures surge into the mid 90s south of the bridge. No aid from the heat is expected with overnight lows as dew points remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, prohibiting efficient radiational cooling. Heat will slightly relieve itself by the midweek, but highs will still remain well above average for mid June with most locations seeing highs in the 80s through the Friday /Saturday timeframe. Temperatures are expected to remain just below advisory criteria for now, but it would not be too surprising if one is later issued due to the rarity of the event and the vulnerable populations of the CWA (lack of central air in homes compared to other parts of the country).
-Chances of showers and storms expected at times this week: Chances of convection are set to continue at times this week as the heat wave occupy the Great Lakes Region. Aformentioned height disturbances are expected to remain north of the CWA, but scattered thunderstorms can fire off for a few locations from diurnal heating or along lake breeze boundaries. No heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected, but thunderstorms could provide a brief aid to the heat to localized areas across northern Michigan.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Other than perhaps some MVFR cigs spreading across KCIU late tonight/early Monday morning, expecting VFR conditions to persist under some passing mid and upper level clouds. A few light showers will fall out of this cloud deck this afternoon, but with minimal impacts. Will need to watch for isolated to scattered convective development tonight, any of which could bring brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Confidence is much too low to include a specific mention of this in the forecast.
Overspreading of low level jet tonight will produce wind shear.
Gusty southeast to south surface winds this afternoon expected to decrease in speed tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night for MIZ020-025-026-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346-348-349.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Multiple rounds of showers into this evening.
- Isolated severe storms, locally heavy rainfall possible tonight.
- High heat and humidity begins this Monday and continues through the entirety of the long term forecast period.
- Chances of showers and storms expected at times this week.
UPDATE
Issued at 949 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
No significant changes needed to the inherited forecast. Weak shortwave trough and persistent warm, moist advection kicking off light showers this morning, especially across eastern upper Michigan. Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms working their way in from Wisconsin. Expect these showers to spread overhead this afternoon. Not expecting anything severe out of this activity as they outrun west displaced instability axis.
Temperatures will recover into the 70s and lower 80s across northern lower Michigan before cooling some with arrival of thicker clouds and showers this afternoon. Clouds look to keep eastern upper considerably more cool...perhaps not even reaching 70 degrees for some areas.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Pattern Synopsis:
Mid/upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes will slide east as a shortwave quickly lifts across the region this afternoon and evening. The associated surface response looks to work across Wisconsin/far northern Great Lakes into tonight. More expansive, dominant ridging will establish itself over most of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River by Monday morning.
Forecast Details:
Multiple rounds of showers into this evening -- Ongoing light rain showers on the periphery of low/mid-level warm advection will continue over the next few hours before exiting to the northeast later this morning. A brief break in rain chances is anticipated through the remainder of the morning before a second round of showers associated with the aforementioned shortwave works in from the west beginning early this afternoon and will persist into this evening. Dry low-level profiles will work to inhibit heavier rainfall for a time, despite saturated profiles aloft. Little to no thunder is anticipated with this activity given the lack of buoyancy from moist adiabatic profiles aloft.
Isolated severe storms, locally heavy rainfall possible tonight -- As warm, moist advection continues across the Great Lakes, steep lapse rates will arrive on the heels of aforementioned activity to provide ample elevated instability to support thunderstorm chances later this evening and tonight. Current confidence in how potential convection later this evening and tonight will evolve is low.
Additional scattered storms may form after previously mentioned showers depart east along/to the north of the partially modified outflow boundary. Where exactly this boundary sets sets up, and if/how much convection forms along it are the main sources of uncertainty. With that said, the potential for west-east training convection exists in the vicinity this boundary later this evening and tonight -- and with PWATs near/exceeding climatological max values and ample instability in place, locally heavy rainfall of 1" or more will be possible across far northern lower/eastern upper Michigan should training convection develop. An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out as well, with the primary hazards being large hail and gusty winds.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 351 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Previous forecast discussion remains true as midlevel subtropical ridging is expected to build this Monday across the eastern half of North America and remain in place for the majority of the long term.
This pattern will support a hot and humid air mass to advect from the Gulf region into the Great Lakes region.
Aformentioned ridging will start to slowly break down throughout the work week, but keep temperatures well above average for mid June.
The baroclinic zone is set to remain north of the CWA, but embedded height disturbances along the ridge will continue chances of showers and storms at times this week, but no heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected at this time.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
-High heat and humidity begins this Monday and continues through the entirety of the long term forecast period: Hottest days of the long term remain to be Monday and Tuesday as temperatures surge into the mid 90s south of the bridge. No aid from the heat is expected with overnight lows as dew points remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, prohibiting efficient radiational cooling. Heat will slightly relieve itself by the midweek, but highs will still remain well above average for mid June with most locations seeing highs in the 80s through the Friday /Saturday timeframe. Temperatures are expected to remain just below advisory criteria for now, but it would not be too surprising if one is later issued due to the rarity of the event and the vulnerable populations of the CWA (lack of central air in homes compared to other parts of the country).
-Chances of showers and storms expected at times this week: Chances of convection are set to continue at times this week as the heat wave occupy the Great Lakes Region. Aformentioned height disturbances are expected to remain north of the CWA, but scattered thunderstorms can fire off for a few locations from diurnal heating or along lake breeze boundaries. No heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected, but thunderstorms could provide a brief aid to the heat to localized areas across northern Michigan.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Other than perhaps some MVFR cigs spreading across KCIU late tonight/early Monday morning, expecting VFR conditions to persist under some passing mid and upper level clouds. A few light showers will fall out of this cloud deck this afternoon, but with minimal impacts. Will need to watch for isolated to scattered convective development tonight, any of which could bring brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Confidence is much too low to include a specific mention of this in the forecast.
Overspreading of low level jet tonight will produce wind shear.
Gusty southeast to south surface winds this afternoon expected to decrease in speed tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night for MIZ020-025-026-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346-348-349.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 31 mi | 68 min | SSW 9.9G | 73°F | 29.90 |
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Gaylord, MI,
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