Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM   Moonset 2:23 PM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 920 Pm Edt Fri May 31 2024
Overnight - South winds 10 knots or less. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 62 degrees, and off erie 62 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KPBZ 010631 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 231 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain will return to the area late Saturday night into Sunday with crossing low pressure. Above normal temperature and low probability showers and thunderstorms are favored thereafter until the next system arrives mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through this evening before rain moves in from the west.
- Temperatures will warm back above-normal on Saturday.
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Upper level ridging will shift east of the region through this evening in response to the approach of a weakening shortwave trough. The daytime hours will remain dry with increasing cloud cover amid warm/moist advection aloft. Temperature is likely to be near to slightly above the daily average.

Mostly light rain showers will arrive in the eastern Ohio zones from the west after midnight (and likely closer to dawn Sunday)
in association with the weakening shortwave trough. Stable overnight conditions and marginal shear should preclude lightning development.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and low probability thunder expected Sunday before tapering off during the evening.

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Gradual progression of the generally weakening shortwave trough is expected Sunday, with the system generally exiting late Sunday night. The associated precipitation areas will progress across eastern Ohio during the morning hours then through western Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening. The environment will feature minimal instability due to excessive cloud cover (less than 500 J/kg SBCAPE focused mainly south of I-70) and weak shear; this will limit storm strength (limited severe threat) and rainfall rates/updraft organization (limited flooding threat). The lack of stronger surface forcing and the decaying dynamics of the shortwave will also create more of a scattered coverage appearance, meaning some locations may see little to no rain.

Dry weather should return by Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating and exiting of the shortwave, with any lingering showers confinded to upslope Laurel Highland zones. The lack of notable dry advection behind the system could make fog a potential overnight impact, depending on the degree/quickness of cloud clearing.



LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability showers and thunderstorms with above normal temperature likely to start the next work week.
- Increasing precipitation chances accompany a mid to late week low pressure system that will cause falling temperature.

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Subtle ridging stretching from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River Valley Monday is likely to promote dry weather and slightly above average temperature. The probability for showers and thunderstorms should be low and generally confined to the higher terrain where better moisture and terrain convergence may lead to an isolated afternoon storm. Little change in the broad synoptic flow is expected for Tuesday, which will promote above normal temperature and dry weather. That said, there remains a scenario that convective evolution to the west could push far enough east to increase precipitation chances late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Ensemble means continue to favor the eastward progression of an upper level trough into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This scenario would provide increasing large scale ascent/forcing to promte more widespread hsowers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. However, an alternate but plausible outcome is that more staunch ridging will either delay trough arrival or deflect its passage farther north; this would delay the next precipitation chances while maintaining above normal temperature.

Confidence is higher for general troughing to move over the Great Lakes region by Friday that would promote periods of showers and thunderstorms and downward trending temperature.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will continue as high pressure moves east across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Light and variable wind tonight will veer to the SSE later this morning with speeds around 5 kt.

Outlook
Restrictions and showers/possible thunderstorms return Sunday with a crossing trough of low pressure. Current ensemble guidance indicate a 60-70% chance of MVFR on Sunday. MVFR to IFR fog/stratus is possible Sunday night with low level moisture in place. VFR returns later Monday and Tuesday under high pressure, before a restriction and shower/thunderstorm potential returns with a Wednesday cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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