Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:44 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 318 Am Cdt Thu Jun 13 2024
Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest late. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Bay waters smooth. Friday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Friday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 318 Am Cdt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis - Light offshore flow will prevail through Friday. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters early this morning with chances diminishing through the day. No appreciable precipitation is expected Friday or Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday night through most of next week as moisture from the southern gulf of mexico advances northward. Increasing onshore winds and seas can be expected during this period, with small craft advisories likely necessary by Tuesday.

FXUS64 KLCH 131558 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1058 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge extending from the Eastern U.S. to the Gulf coast giving our region east northeast winds. Weak stationary frontal boundary draped across the coastal waters with light northeast winds there as well. Fairly nice dewpoints in the 60s across most locations, with temperatures in the mid 80s. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Radar showing only a few showers along the frontal boundary across the coastal waters. Overall trends have been diminishing in coverage. Little to no coverage is expected further inland.
Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at this time.

08/DML

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Very quiet weather ongoing across the region this morning. Some patchy dense fog is presently being observed in the vicinity of Houston, but this hasn't really developed further east in any appreciable capacity. Can't rule out the possibility of some light ground fog through the remainder of the early morning especially across the few areas that saw rain yesterday, but this shouldn't amount to much and should be quick to dissipate after sunrise.

Otherwise, high pressure extending across most of the Northern gulf coast and ridging aloft beginning to nudge into the area will keep precip at bay and skies generally clear. Daytime mixing should again pull some low 60s dewpoints down to the surface which will drop afternoon RH values into the 35-45% range making the lower 90s high temperatures feel a bit more bearable.

The ridge aloft will continue to build across the area both Friday and Saturday maintaining dry conditions. The combination of increasing subsidence and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s will drive afternoon highs into the mid 90s Friday afternoon and upper 90s Saturday afternoon. However, the slightly below normal dewpoints especially in the afternoon should keep apparent temperatures below advisory criteria.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Isolated to numerous PoPs are on tap for the entire forecast period.
As a result, temperatures for the period will be held to or below climatological normals. MaxTs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with both MinTs and dewpoints in the 70s.

The long term kicks off this weekend with a ridge of high pressure aloft, centered over the Southeastern States. Over the forecast period it will slowly move up the east coast. Yesterday morning NHC highlighted an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche for possible development over the long term period. As of 2AM EDT NHC has increased this area to a 40% chance of development. Regardless of development, the moisture from this system will bring with it a chance for locally heavy rainfall and a threat of flooding.

Model guidance has improved slightly as to the evolution of the system, with the broad area of low pressure expected to move west northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico before moving inland around the Tamaulipas / Veracruz area mid to late next week.

There is still some disagreement as to how far north the rich plume of tropical moisture will move. While some models have backed down, we will still be facing a multiday flooding threat over the early to mid week period. PWATs along the coast on Sunday are in the 1.8 to 2 inch range which is in the 75th to 90th percentile range. Monday and Tuesday, they are in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. Wednesday and Thursday, they are in the 2 to 2.4 range.

Of course this will all depend on where the plume of tropical moisture sets up and this is highly likely to change over the coming days. As of now, there is a Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on day 4 and 5 (Sunday & Monday). Sunday the risk area is along coastal SETX / SWLA. Monday it encompass nearly three quarters of the CWA Keep in mind that the potential for greater and or additional flood threats will exist over this period.

Stigger/87

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

Few to scattered cumulus ~3500-5000 ft expected this afternoon, dissipating this evening and overnight, and again for late Friday morning. VFR expected throughout the period. Light northeast winds around 5-8 kts epected this afternoon, becoming light and variable 3 kts or less after 00z, and northeast 5-8 kts once again after 15z Friday.

08/DML

MARINE
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Light offshore flow will prevail through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters early this morning with chances diminishing through the day. No appreciable precipitation is expected Friday or Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday night through most of next week as moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. Increasing onshore winds and seas can be expected during this period, with Small Craft Advisories possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 64 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 92 70 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 93 71 96 76 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 93 73 96 74 / 10 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Lighthouse Point
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Thu -- 12:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:21 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:15 AM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 PM CDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lighthouse Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

Southwest Pass
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Thu -- 12:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:05 AM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:59 AM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 PM CDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:11 PM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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