Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 3:53 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 319 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Wednesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Thursday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 319 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow prevails through midweek. Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow returns by late week. Seas continue to subside today into Monday.

FXUS64 KMOB 021118 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility prevail at daybreak this morning with an expectation for VFR flight category to prevail by mid to late morning for the entire forecast area. A few showers near the coast will propagate inland through late morning before becoming isolated to scattered showers and storms for this afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and may result in temporary reductions in flight category for both ceilings and visibility. Winds will generally prevail out of the south to southeast today around 5kts.

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/

New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Northwest flow aloft prevails through Monday for the forecast area. A subtle shortwave approaches the area from the northwest this afternoon, with a more pronounced shortwave traversing the gulf coast states Monday into Monday evening. These features will be responsible for any stormy weather the next 48 hours, with favorable diurnal timing in the afternoon to early evening hours.
Expect isolated showers this morning near the coast to spread inland by late morning. With the approach of the subtle shortwave, expect convective coverage to increase a bit to isolated to scattered showers and storms by early to mid afternoon. Weak shear and moderate instability suggests storms should be your more typical pulse-type summertime storms, with potential for brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Temperatures today top out in the middle 80's for most spots.

Tonight storms should die out after sunset with loss of daytime heating and any lingering storms become focused offshore over the marine waters. Overnight temperatures fall into the upper 60's and lower 70's. The evolution for things Monday is a bit trickier as it depends on how storms organize well upstream across TX/LA in association with the more potent shortwave. Exact strength and placement of this feature early Monday will determine if a complex of storms misses the forecast area to the southwest or not, or just never makes it to the forecast area at all. Given high uncertainty in the convective evolution Monday, have kept isolated PoPs in the forecast but can see those being bumped up in future forecast packages if confidence increases on Monday's convective evolution.
Regardless, another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 80's to perhaps lower 90's in spots. A High risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight, becoming a moderate risk for Monday. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Northwesterly to occasionally westerly flow aloft persists through next weekend as the ridge over Mexico gradually builds into the Southern Plains and a trough digs over the eastern portion of the CONUS. Subtle shortwaves slide across the region in this pattern throughout the period, but timing out these individual features is tough at this time range. Meanwhile, the surface high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip on the region and eastern Gulf through at least Friday. Moisture will continue to pump into the area this upcoming week as we maintain onshore flow at the surface.
There will be a chance for showers and storms each day through at least Thursday of this week with the highest chances coincident with the passing shortwaves. Model guidance indicates that a front will drift south into the area late in the work week or early next weekend. We stuck closely to the blended guidance on Friday and Saturday, which resulted in a relatively dry forecast, however, the POPs could increase in future forecast updates given the presence of the front (i.e. we aren't entirely sold on this being a dry frontal passage).

It'll be toasty this week (when it isn't rainy/cloudy) with highs hovering right around or slightly above average. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s most days. On days that remain clear with no showers/storms, expect highs to be a few degrees warmer. Heat indices will hit the century mark in a few locations each day.

Beach Note: Rip current risk is LOW through Thursday with the RCMOS probabilities indicating the LOW risk persisting through at least early next weekend. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A light onshore flow prevails through midweek. Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow returns by late week. Seas continue to subside today into Monday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 85 71 88 71 88 72 89 73 / 50 20 20 10 20 0 10 10 Pensacola 82 74 86 74 87 74 88 75 / 50 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 Destin 83 75 85 75 87 76 87 75 / 50 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 84 68 88 68 89 67 90 70 / 50 20 20 10 30 10 20 20 Waynesboro 86 69 89 69 89 70 92 70 / 50 10 20 10 30 10 20 20 Camden 85 68 89 68 89 69 91 70 / 40 10 20 10 30 10 20 30 Crestview 84 68 89 67 91 67 91 70 / 50 10 20 0 20 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Sun -- 02:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM CDT     0.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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