Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 1:43 AM   Moonset 2:25 PM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 840 Pm Pdt Fri May 31 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 3 to 5 ft through Sunday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 4.45 kt at 1250 am Saturday. Seas 3 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.75 kt at 1259 pm Saturday. Seas 3 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 5.24 kt at 146 am Sunday. Seas 4 to 5 ft.

PZZ200 840 Pm Pdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Gusty north winds and choppy seas will continue this evening before high pressure breaks down as a weak front approaches. Then an unusually late season storm system brings stronger southerly winds to the waters Sunday.

FXUS66 KPQR 010441 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 941 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Updated aviation discussion...

SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry weather will prevail today as high pressure persists over SW Washington and NW Oregon. The high pressure weakens enough Saturday to allow a weak frontal system to clip the region with clouds and a few showers, mainly along the coast and over the higher terrain. A stronger system will spread rain throughout the forecast area Sunday; this rain may be locally heavy as a moderate to strong atmospheric river of moisture will be involved. Unsettled weather will linger through the first half of next week, then a turn toward warmer and drier weather appears likely by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday night...Not much change in the forecast thinking through this weekend. GOES satellite imagery, and looking outside our window, shows mostly sunny skies along with some passing cirrus. Our 12 at 12 rule of thumb would produce a high temperature in the upper 70s late this afternoon. High pressure aloft will shift east of the Cascades this evening, allowing a weak shortwave system to move onshore. This system will deepen the marine layer, potentially bringing some drizzle or light rain to north coastal areas Saturday morning. Just enough moisture and low-level instability could linger into Saturday afternoon for a few showers, with the best chances being along our north coastal zones and across the higher terrain. Temperature on Saturday are expected to be near normals for early June, lower 70s for inland valleys.

Whatever rain falls on Saturday will likely pale in comparison to the rain expected with the next, stronger system Sunday and Monday.
Models and their ensembles continue to suggest a deep tap to subtropical moisture, somewhat associated with a tropical system which emerged from the western Pacific over the past 24-48 hours.
GEFS members suggest a high likelihood (>90%) of integrated vapor transport (IVT) exceeding 500 kg/m/s, with about a 50/50 chance of IVT exceeding 750 kg/m/s along the Oregon coast Sunday evening.
Meanwhile the forecast area will be in or near the left-exit region of an unseasonably strong jet streak; this will enhance lift as the deepest moisture moves across the region. Deep moisture under the right circumstances can lead to unusually high rainfall rates. As such, Sunday afternoon and evening look quite wet for SW Washington and NW Oregon, with NBM probabilistic QPF suggesting the vast majority of the CWA has a better than 70-80% chance of receiving 1 inch or more of QPF. The same guidance suggests 1 inch or more of rain is a near certainty in the Coast Range and Cascades north of Highway 20, with NBM means suggesting 1.5-3.0 inches of QPF for the same area Sunday night into Monday. High-end (95th percentile) QPF suggest a couple locations could reach 4 inches of QPF if everything were to line up properly. With this in mind, it is not out of the question that there could be rapid rises or even minor flooding on a couple of our flashier creeks and drainages (the Grays River comes to mind), but based on latest guidance it appears the chances of this occurring at any given location are 10% or less. -DH/Weagle

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...The unseasonably strong jet stream over the NE Pacific remains aimed toward the Pac NW through Tuesday, keeping the weather unsettled across SW Washington and NW Oregon. Latest NBM thunder probs are in the 10-20% range for much of the CWA Monday afternoon, which seems reasonable given the pocket of cool air aloft swinging through the region and the strong early June sun. Depending on how much sunshine can break through the clouds Monday, a couple of the thunderstorms could become strong enough to produce small hail and/or gusty winds. Either way, Monday will likely be somewhat blustery given the 30-40 kt SW winds at 850 mb shown by the 12z NAM. Guidance suggests another system potentially moving into the Pac NW Tuesday, though there is a lot of variability on the strength of this system.

Starting midweek, models are suggesting a high likelihood of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure developing somewhere over the Western United States. Looking at the 00z WPC cluster analyses, there is still a lot of variability in where models and their ensembles are placing the upper ridge axis...which will be key in determining just how warm it will be toward the end of next week. Based on the 00z WPC clusters, it appears there is only about a 20-30% chance of a pattern that would avoid significant positive 500 mb height anomalies over WA/OR (i.e. significantly above-normal temperatures), with the remainder of guidance suggesting temps several degrees above normal (at least inland) by the end of the week. By next Friday, NBM probabilistic guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of highs reaching the 90s in the Willamette Valley, with a 5-15% chance of highs exceeding 100 degrees. With this in mind, those sensitive to heat should pay close attention to the forecast the next few days, and perhaps consider where they may go to stay cool late next week should the hotter forecast guidance prevail. -Weagle

AVIATION
Satellite imagery as of 0430z Sat shows increasing high clouds over the region as a weak front approaches. Expect VFR conditions to continue across all terminals through late tonight.
After 12z Saturday, the weak front will move closer to land and potentially drop cigs to MVFR along the coast. Guidance suggests a 50-70% chance of MVFR cigs developing along the coast after 12z Sat and persisting through the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile, inland terminals on Saturday will likely maintain VFR cigs. Could see some light, non-impactful shower activity near KAST and the Portland Metro with this weak front. Winds will be light (under 5 kt) and variable tonight, then increase and turn more westerly/southwesterly through the day Saturday around 5-10 kt.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the entire TAF period.
Expect increasing cloud cover tonight, with cigs lowering to low-end VFR throughout the day Saturday. Winds turn more westerly tomorrow, remaining under 10 kt. -Alviz

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory wind gusts up to 25 kt south of Cape Falcon (marine zones PZZ 272,273,252,253) will continue through the evening. A weakening Pacific front approaches the area tonight and will bring lighter west/southwest winds 10-12 knots on Saturday.

A more organized and stronger storm system will move into the northeast Pacific Sunday shifting winds southerly. Small Craft Wind gusts are likely with 90+% chance of gusts exceeding 21 kts. There is also a 10-20% chance of a brief period of Gale Force winds of 35 kts for the latter half of Sunday. Seas will build to 8-10 feet at 10-12 seconds Sunday afternoon, persisting into Monday. Another westerly swell will enter the waters toward the middle of next week with seas of 10-12 feet at 14-16 seconds.
-Batz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252- 253-272-273.

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Vancouver
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Sat -- 02:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:12 AM PDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:14 AM PDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM PDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:20 PM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Tillamook
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Sat -- 02:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:19 AM PDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:29 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:39 AM PDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 PM PDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:15 PM PDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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