Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 4:34 PM   Moonset 2:37 AM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 617 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Today - East winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 9 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 9 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 10 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 9 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 9 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 9 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 617 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis -
strong easterly winds are expected the next few days along with elevated seas. A small craft advisory remains in effect through today and into Wednesday morning. Additional advisories may be needed before winds finally diminish Thursday night.

FXUS62 KTBW 181204 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 804 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Dry air aloft continues to deepen as seen in the 12Z TBW sounding and local ACARs data to keep rain chances very low today. Tight 6-7mb surface pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula and daytime mixing of strong winds aloft to produce gusty E winds again today preventing Gulf seabreeze. Lack of afternoon convection and cloud cover for warm temps well above normal values as well.
These winds will also create dangerous marine and boating conditions. Latest grids and forecast on track.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Gusty easterly winds to around 25 knots and VFR conditions to continue with winds diminishing overnight after 04Z.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Ridging will continue to dominate our weather pattern over the next couple of days. As the pressure gradient is squeezed over us between the strong ridge and the deepening low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico, breezy easterly winds are expected the next few days.
With this strong ridging overhead, slightly warmer than average temperatures are expected (lower 90s) over the next couple of days and the strong easterly flow will focus the warmest temperatures along the west coast of Florida. Mostly rain free conditions are expected today as PWs will remain under 1.5 inch and only isolated thunderstorm chances are expected on Wednesday.

Moisture will begin returning to the area later this week as a system in the Atlantic approaches the east coast. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the degree of intensity with this system, but one thing they do agree on is the increase in rain chances it brings to the Florida Peninsula as moisture streams across the state towards the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures during this time frame will continue to run above average, with the warmest temperatures being felt across the Nature Coast. Lower 90s will be seen across SWFL through Central Florida, with middle 90s expected across our northern counties. The warm temperatures along with the increase in moisture will lead to heat index values in the triple digits for most of the forecast area during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong easterly winds are expected the next few days along with elevated seas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through today and into Wednesday morning. Additional advisories may be needed before winds finally diminish Thursday night.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy easterly winds are expected the next few days with high dispersion expected, but RH values will remain well above critical thresholds. Winds will diminish by the end of the week along with increasing rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 77 92 77 / 20 20 40 30 FMY 94 77 91 76 / 20 20 50 30 GIF 92 76 91 75 / 40 30 40 20 SRQ 95 77 94 76 / 20 20 40 30 BKV 94 74 93 72 / 20 20 30 20 SPG 94 80 93 80 / 20 30 40 30

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Chassahowitzka
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Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:00 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida (2), Tide feet

Chassahowitzka
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida, Tide feet

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