Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cocoa West, FL
June 10, 2024 3:58 PM EDT (19:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 9:09 AM Moonset 11:10 PM |
AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 348 Pm Edt Mon Jun 10 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 101809 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 209 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
VCTS at all terminals this afternoon. TSRA TEMPOs from SFB southward this afternoon including MVFR VIS and CIGs . A seabreeze has developed from MLB southward backing winds onshore. Southwest winds around 8-10kts ahead of the seabreeze. VCTS diminishing to VCSH around 02/04Z. High coverage of -RA with occasional VCTS is forecast early Tuesday morning along with prevailing MVFR CIGs .
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Today-Tonight...One last day of abnormally hot weather, then the streak finally comes to an end as the mid-upper level ridge responsible is shunted to the southeast by broad troughing over the CONUS digging down to the Atlantic seaboard. An attendant surface front associated with the trough stalls near or just north of North Florida, while the Atlantic high retreats south and seaward a bit, backing low-level flow southwesterly, and lifting copious (and much needed) tropical moisture to Florida. Increasing cloud cover brings temperatures down a notch from previous days, but still well above normal in the M-U90s inland and L-M90s along the coastal corridor. A couple high temperature records could be broken again today, with Leesburg and Vero Beach the most likely candidates. Heat index values also come down a notch, but remain just below Heat Advisory criteria at 100-107, highest from Osceola and southern Brevard south. Winds WSW-SW 5-10 mph pick up to 10-15 mph and a bit gusty in the afternoon , especially along the coast.
As for rain chances, we'll start the day with a fairly sharp PWAT gradient across ECFL from around 1.8-1.9" in Martin County to 1.2-1.3" in northern Lake and Volusia counties, which are forecast to increase to 1.7"-2.1" (between the climatological 75th percentile and daily maximum) by the evening. This will support increasing rain chances through the day, starting at 20 pct across the southern counties by late morning, 30-50 pct across most of ECFL by the afternoon, and topping out at 60-70 pct from Orlando to Titusville south. CAMs have a bit of variation in timing, for example the HRRR getting things going mainly in the afternoon, but overall coverage is in pretty good agreement. While 500mb temperatures are a somewhat unimpressive at -6C to -4C, the additional instability provided by the increasing moisture looks to push MUCAPE values over 2,500 J/kg in the afternoon, and those hot conditions will cause low-level lapse rates to exceed 7-8 C/km, resulting in a favorable environment for clusters of pulse thunderstorms after 2 PM. Dry mid-levels could enhance downdrafts, and indeed soundings show DCAPE values 900-1,000 J/kg, leading to gusty thunderstorm winds to 50 mph, and a locally severe/damaging gust to 60 mph can't be ruled out. Other storm hazards will be occasional to frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
Adequate low-mid level flow should keep storms on the move, but repeated rounds could result in locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3", with a upper limit of 4" not out of the question.
Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected through the night, and while they won't pack the same punch as those this afternoon as we lose instability from daytime heating, we'll continue to see those rainfall totals increase.
Tuesday-Friday...Fairly straight forward forecast at this point.
Southwesterly flow around the Atlantic high transports juicy tropical moisture across Florida, which combined with a broadening shortwave trough becoming quasi-stationary over the GOMEX and Florida, will result in high rain chances and an increasing potential for localized flooding through the week. To paraphrase WFO MLB wisdom, weather in Florida is often the mean of two extremes, and as we look at the potential of going from drought to flooding, this certainly holds true. We'll see multiple rounds of showers and lightning storms through the period with daily rain chances 80-90 pct. The big question will be where we see those repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms, and how much rainfall accumulates. A fairly common theme across the various guidance is 24-hour rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4" possible, and a total QPF through Friday night of 5-8" down south and 2-4" to the north. Based on these numbers and the cumulative effect over several days, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across all of ECFL through the period, and a Slight Risk starting across the south Tuesday that shifts further north each day, reaching Orlando to Titusville by Friday.
Model soundings show mostly that long-skinny profile associated with high rainfall events, but CAPE values still manage to reach 1,000-1,500 J/kg in the afternoons, so storms capable of gusty winds and at least occasional cloud to ground lightning will be possible.
Almost as good news as the rain will be temperatures, which are forecast to barely make it to 90 in northern Lake and Volusia counties Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise and elsewhere only make it to the M-U80s thanks to the cloud cover and rain. While not a cold snap by any means, they will be at or below normal, which is at least something.
Saturday-Sunday...Guidance has further diverged and further decreased forecast confidence going into the weekend. GFS develops a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ECM develops little more than a wave. This results in a much drier solution from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture across the area and continues rain chances. Official forecast reflects a compromise blend between the two, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend, but changes are likely as we drawn nearer.
MARINE
Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Today-Tonight...The Atlantic high retreats southeastward as a frontal boundary stalls near or north of North Florida. Flow starts to become more SW-SSW later in the day as a result, but the sea breeze circulation remains the primary driver of winds, backing them to the S-SE at 10-15 kts in the afternoon, then returning to SW-WSW overnight. Another nocturnal offshore surge to 15-20 kts is expected, but limited to well offshore of the Volusia waters tonight. Increasing moisture from the SWrly flow will result in SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and lightning storms, some of which could become strong, capable of winds over 35 kts and locally higher seas. Outside of storms, seas 1-3.
Tuesday-Friday...Pattern remains fairly static through Friday.
SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. High rain chances through the period with rounds of SCT-NUM showers and lightning storms. High cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze. Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, maybe creeping up to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream Tuesday night.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Sensitive fire weather conditions due to near record heat and drought conditions continue today, then a gradual improvement is expected through the request of the week as moisture and subsequent rain chances increase. Min RHs 50 pct or higher except north of I-4 at 35-40 pct today. SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms expected this afternoon.
CLIMATE
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Leesburg is the only location today forecast to tie their record high temperature, but all other sites are expected to be within a few degrees from their record max temps this afternoon.
Record high temperatures (including last year set) for today, June 10th:
Daytona Beach 100 1981 Leesburg 96 2007 Sanford 99 1985 Orlando 99 1907 Melbourne 96 1981 Vero Beach 95 2007 Fort Pierce 97 1948
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 89 73 89 / 40 80 50 80 MCO 76 85 74 86 / 50 80 50 80 MLB 75 86 73 87 / 60 90 70 90 VRB 74 86 72 87 / 60 90 70 90 LEE 76 89 76 90 / 40 70 40 80 SFB 76 88 75 89 / 40 80 50 80 ORL 77 86 75 88 / 50 80 50 80 FPR 74 86 72 87 / 60 90 70 90
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 209 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
VCTS at all terminals this afternoon. TSRA TEMPOs from SFB southward this afternoon including MVFR VIS and CIGs . A seabreeze has developed from MLB southward backing winds onshore. Southwest winds around 8-10kts ahead of the seabreeze. VCTS diminishing to VCSH around 02/04Z. High coverage of -RA with occasional VCTS is forecast early Tuesday morning along with prevailing MVFR CIGs .
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Today-Tonight...One last day of abnormally hot weather, then the streak finally comes to an end as the mid-upper level ridge responsible is shunted to the southeast by broad troughing over the CONUS digging down to the Atlantic seaboard. An attendant surface front associated with the trough stalls near or just north of North Florida, while the Atlantic high retreats south and seaward a bit, backing low-level flow southwesterly, and lifting copious (and much needed) tropical moisture to Florida. Increasing cloud cover brings temperatures down a notch from previous days, but still well above normal in the M-U90s inland and L-M90s along the coastal corridor. A couple high temperature records could be broken again today, with Leesburg and Vero Beach the most likely candidates. Heat index values also come down a notch, but remain just below Heat Advisory criteria at 100-107, highest from Osceola and southern Brevard south. Winds WSW-SW 5-10 mph pick up to 10-15 mph and a bit gusty in the afternoon , especially along the coast.
As for rain chances, we'll start the day with a fairly sharp PWAT gradient across ECFL from around 1.8-1.9" in Martin County to 1.2-1.3" in northern Lake and Volusia counties, which are forecast to increase to 1.7"-2.1" (between the climatological 75th percentile and daily maximum) by the evening. This will support increasing rain chances through the day, starting at 20 pct across the southern counties by late morning, 30-50 pct across most of ECFL by the afternoon, and topping out at 60-70 pct from Orlando to Titusville south. CAMs have a bit of variation in timing, for example the HRRR getting things going mainly in the afternoon, but overall coverage is in pretty good agreement. While 500mb temperatures are a somewhat unimpressive at -6C to -4C, the additional instability provided by the increasing moisture looks to push MUCAPE values over 2,500 J/kg in the afternoon, and those hot conditions will cause low-level lapse rates to exceed 7-8 C/km, resulting in a favorable environment for clusters of pulse thunderstorms after 2 PM. Dry mid-levels could enhance downdrafts, and indeed soundings show DCAPE values 900-1,000 J/kg, leading to gusty thunderstorm winds to 50 mph, and a locally severe/damaging gust to 60 mph can't be ruled out. Other storm hazards will be occasional to frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
Adequate low-mid level flow should keep storms on the move, but repeated rounds could result in locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3", with a upper limit of 4" not out of the question.
Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected through the night, and while they won't pack the same punch as those this afternoon as we lose instability from daytime heating, we'll continue to see those rainfall totals increase.
Tuesday-Friday...Fairly straight forward forecast at this point.
Southwesterly flow around the Atlantic high transports juicy tropical moisture across Florida, which combined with a broadening shortwave trough becoming quasi-stationary over the GOMEX and Florida, will result in high rain chances and an increasing potential for localized flooding through the week. To paraphrase WFO MLB wisdom, weather in Florida is often the mean of two extremes, and as we look at the potential of going from drought to flooding, this certainly holds true. We'll see multiple rounds of showers and lightning storms through the period with daily rain chances 80-90 pct. The big question will be where we see those repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms, and how much rainfall accumulates. A fairly common theme across the various guidance is 24-hour rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4" possible, and a total QPF through Friday night of 5-8" down south and 2-4" to the north. Based on these numbers and the cumulative effect over several days, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across all of ECFL through the period, and a Slight Risk starting across the south Tuesday that shifts further north each day, reaching Orlando to Titusville by Friday.
Model soundings show mostly that long-skinny profile associated with high rainfall events, but CAPE values still manage to reach 1,000-1,500 J/kg in the afternoons, so storms capable of gusty winds and at least occasional cloud to ground lightning will be possible.
Almost as good news as the rain will be temperatures, which are forecast to barely make it to 90 in northern Lake and Volusia counties Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise and elsewhere only make it to the M-U80s thanks to the cloud cover and rain. While not a cold snap by any means, they will be at or below normal, which is at least something.
Saturday-Sunday...Guidance has further diverged and further decreased forecast confidence going into the weekend. GFS develops a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ECM develops little more than a wave. This results in a much drier solution from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture across the area and continues rain chances. Official forecast reflects a compromise blend between the two, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend, but changes are likely as we drawn nearer.
MARINE
Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Today-Tonight...The Atlantic high retreats southeastward as a frontal boundary stalls near or north of North Florida. Flow starts to become more SW-SSW later in the day as a result, but the sea breeze circulation remains the primary driver of winds, backing them to the S-SE at 10-15 kts in the afternoon, then returning to SW-WSW overnight. Another nocturnal offshore surge to 15-20 kts is expected, but limited to well offshore of the Volusia waters tonight. Increasing moisture from the SWrly flow will result in SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and lightning storms, some of which could become strong, capable of winds over 35 kts and locally higher seas. Outside of storms, seas 1-3.
Tuesday-Friday...Pattern remains fairly static through Friday.
SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. High rain chances through the period with rounds of SCT-NUM showers and lightning storms. High cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze. Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, maybe creeping up to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream Tuesday night.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Sensitive fire weather conditions due to near record heat and drought conditions continue today, then a gradual improvement is expected through the request of the week as moisture and subsequent rain chances increase. Min RHs 50 pct or higher except north of I-4 at 35-40 pct today. SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms expected this afternoon.
CLIMATE
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Leesburg is the only location today forecast to tie their record high temperature, but all other sites are expected to be within a few degrees from their record max temps this afternoon.
Record high temperatures (including last year set) for today, June 10th:
Daytona Beach 100 1981 Leesburg 96 2007 Sanford 99 1985 Orlando 99 1907 Melbourne 96 1981 Vero Beach 95 2007 Fort Pierce 97 1948
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 89 73 89 / 40 80 50 80 MCO 76 85 74 86 / 50 80 50 80 MLB 75 86 73 87 / 60 90 70 90 VRB 74 86 72 87 / 60 90 70 90 LEE 76 89 76 90 / 40 70 40 80 SFB 76 88 75 89 / 40 80 50 80 ORL 77 86 75 88 / 50 80 50 80 FPR 74 86 72 87 / 60 90 70 90
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 8 mi | 124 min | SSE 7G | 91°F | 89°F | 29.82 | ||
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 11 mi | 92 min | 85°F | 1 ft | ||||
| 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL | 31 mi | 48 min | SE 7.8G | 84°F | 83°F | 29.83 | 75°F | |
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 94 mi | 133 min | W 6 | 93°F | 29.86 | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCOF PATRICK AFB,FL | 10 sm | 24 min | SSE 12 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 86°F | 81°F | 84% | 29.79 | |
| KTIX SPACE COAST RGNL,FL | 11 sm | 71 min | WSW 10 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 99°F | 70°F | 40% | 29.81 | |
| KXMR CAPE CANAVERAL AFS SKID STRIP,FL | 11 sm | 21 min | SSE 14 | 8 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 79°F | 84% | 29.77 | |
| KTTS NASA SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY,FL | 17 sm | 63 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 90°F | 75°F | 63% | 29.79 | |
| KMLB MELBOURNE INTL,FL | 18 sm | 15 min | ESE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 90°F | 75°F | 63% | 29.79 |
Link to 5 minute data for KXMR
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KXMR
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KXMR
Wind History graph: XMR
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cocoa Beach, Florida, Tide feet
Trident Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT 2.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:52 PM EDT 3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT 2.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:52 PM EDT 3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Trident Pier, Port Canaveral, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.9 |
| 1 am |
| 3.4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 2.4 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.7 |
Melbourne, FL,
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