Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bena, MN
June 2, 2024 2:50 PM CDT (19:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:15 AM Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 2:04 AM Moonset 3:48 PM |
FXUS63 KDLH 021750 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and severe weather in north central Minnesota will arrive this evening and last through Monday morning before showers become more localized in coverage Monday daytime.
- The threat of tornadoes in north-central Minnesota from severe weather this evening has decreased as of this morning, with damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail around an inch in diameter as the primary hazards late this evening and early tonight.
- Areas of dense fog are very likely (60-80% chance) Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
- Quickly followed by another system that will bring more heavy rain and severe weather Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Lingering fog this morning in northwest Wisconsin with visibilities as low as a quarter mile in some areas. As the sun rises and low level mixing starts up, fog should dissipate by mid morning. Before the excitement later today, lingering dry air aloft and efficient mixing today will lead to dry conditions, especially in the Arrowhead. Relative humidity as low as 20% is possible in the Arrowhead and 30% elsewhere.
Convergence aloft from flow switching to the south and warm and moist Gulf air being advected up to the Upper Midwest will slowly saturate the lower and mid levels throughout the day. A thin area of clouds and light rain showers are present in central Minnesota this morning, but is battling dry air, so only some sprinkles will hit the ground, if anything. Some showers may reach the ground by early afternoon in northern Itasca/Koochiching counties.
The main show begins later in the evening as a cold front with a low pressure system in the Dakotas moving northeast to Canada.
Heightened instability (500-1500 J/kg) across western and north central Minnesota along with marginal 0-6km shear (~30kts) and lapse rates over 7 C/km for the afternoon will lead to isolated to scattered severe storms throughout northeastern and north central Minnesota. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible with these storms - especially earlier in the evening.
Once night falls, lower levels become stable, and the severe threat will decrease a few hours after midnight. Then the line of storms will become elevated and continue to make its way through the area.
Heavy rainfall will also accompany this line. Predicted PW and rainfall totals continue to decrease, but PWs up to an inch and a half and up to an inch of rain is still possible (60%) where the heaviest rain falls. Main areas that will see highest values are the Brainerd Lakes area, decreasing as you head east. With saturated soils from recent rainfall, isolated areas of ponding to minor flooding may occur.
A sharp upper level trough dipping down into the Central Plains will bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
This system has a similar setup to this one, but the system's arrival in the morning will lead to the severe threat being further east. Global models show MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear in excess of 30 kts for most of the Northland, but specifically across the southern half of our area. Heavy rainfall is also expected, but models currently diverge on the timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall. However, PWs once again in excess of 1.5 inches could lead to widespread half inch to an inch across the Northland.
By Wednesday, a blocking pattern seems to set up over the western CONUS which will lead to temperatures cooler than normal, gusty winds, and more chances for showers and storms throughout the remainder of the week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A warm front lifting over the Northland this afternoon creates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances at most northern Minnesota terminals through 03Z Monday. Small hail is possible from the stronger thunderstorms through this mid- evening time period. The better chances of severe weather producing damaging wind gusts around 40-50 kts and large hail around an inch in diameter enter north-central Minnesota, especially around BRD, after 03Z and lasting through 09Z in northeast Minnesota. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to trail to primary line of thunderstorms clearing last in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead early Monday morning before lifting and scouring out from 15-18Z Monday. There is high uncertainty on when those ceilings lift and scour out though at area terminals so left lower-vis/cig restrictions in the TAFs for now until confidence increases on that timing.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A couple rounds of showers and storms over western Lake Superior today and Tuesday will have increased northeast winds in otherwise lighter southwest winds. No hazardous conditions are currently expected, but will need to be monitored whether these increase for the Tuesday system. Some strong to severe storms are possible over western Lake Superior on Tuesday as well.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and severe weather in north central Minnesota will arrive this evening and last through Monday morning before showers become more localized in coverage Monday daytime.
- The threat of tornadoes in north-central Minnesota from severe weather this evening has decreased as of this morning, with damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail around an inch in diameter as the primary hazards late this evening and early tonight.
- Areas of dense fog are very likely (60-80% chance) Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
- Quickly followed by another system that will bring more heavy rain and severe weather Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Lingering fog this morning in northwest Wisconsin with visibilities as low as a quarter mile in some areas. As the sun rises and low level mixing starts up, fog should dissipate by mid morning. Before the excitement later today, lingering dry air aloft and efficient mixing today will lead to dry conditions, especially in the Arrowhead. Relative humidity as low as 20% is possible in the Arrowhead and 30% elsewhere.
Convergence aloft from flow switching to the south and warm and moist Gulf air being advected up to the Upper Midwest will slowly saturate the lower and mid levels throughout the day. A thin area of clouds and light rain showers are present in central Minnesota this morning, but is battling dry air, so only some sprinkles will hit the ground, if anything. Some showers may reach the ground by early afternoon in northern Itasca/Koochiching counties.
The main show begins later in the evening as a cold front with a low pressure system in the Dakotas moving northeast to Canada.
Heightened instability (500-1500 J/kg) across western and north central Minnesota along with marginal 0-6km shear (~30kts) and lapse rates over 7 C/km for the afternoon will lead to isolated to scattered severe storms throughout northeastern and north central Minnesota. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible with these storms - especially earlier in the evening.
Once night falls, lower levels become stable, and the severe threat will decrease a few hours after midnight. Then the line of storms will become elevated and continue to make its way through the area.
Heavy rainfall will also accompany this line. Predicted PW and rainfall totals continue to decrease, but PWs up to an inch and a half and up to an inch of rain is still possible (60%) where the heaviest rain falls. Main areas that will see highest values are the Brainerd Lakes area, decreasing as you head east. With saturated soils from recent rainfall, isolated areas of ponding to minor flooding may occur.
A sharp upper level trough dipping down into the Central Plains will bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
This system has a similar setup to this one, but the system's arrival in the morning will lead to the severe threat being further east. Global models show MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear in excess of 30 kts for most of the Northland, but specifically across the southern half of our area. Heavy rainfall is also expected, but models currently diverge on the timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall. However, PWs once again in excess of 1.5 inches could lead to widespread half inch to an inch across the Northland.
By Wednesday, a blocking pattern seems to set up over the western CONUS which will lead to temperatures cooler than normal, gusty winds, and more chances for showers and storms throughout the remainder of the week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A warm front lifting over the Northland this afternoon creates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances at most northern Minnesota terminals through 03Z Monday. Small hail is possible from the stronger thunderstorms through this mid- evening time period. The better chances of severe weather producing damaging wind gusts around 40-50 kts and large hail around an inch in diameter enter north-central Minnesota, especially around BRD, after 03Z and lasting through 09Z in northeast Minnesota. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to trail to primary line of thunderstorms clearing last in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead early Monday morning before lifting and scouring out from 15-18Z Monday. There is high uncertainty on when those ceilings lift and scour out though at area terminals so left lower-vis/cig restrictions in the TAFs for now until confidence increases on that timing.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A couple rounds of showers and storms over western Lake Superior today and Tuesday will have increased northeast winds in otherwise lighter southwest winds. No hazardous conditions are currently expected, but will need to be monitored whether these increase for the Tuesday system. Some strong to severe storms are possible over western Lake Superior on Tuesday as well.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN | 24 sm | 17 min | SSE 11G15 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 75°F | 52°F | 44% | 29.84 |
Duluth, MN,
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