Sunrise 4:31 AM   Sunset 11:22 PM Moonrise 1:36 AM   Moonset 12:58 PM

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PKZ802 Dall Point To Kwikpak Pass Out To 15 Nm- 249 Pm Akdt Fri May 31 2024
Tonight - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sat night - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sun - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sun night - N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Mon - N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Mon night - N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Tue - N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Wed - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 312155 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 155 PM AKDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS
A summer-like pattern is here for the Interior as temps rise into the 70s with showers and storms developing each afternoon through the short term. An arctic front will be dropping south over the North Slope this weekend with colder temperatures, light snow and the potential for some rain or mixed precipitation. The West Coast will remain cooler with a chance for showers in the higher terrain of the Seward Peninsula.

DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The 12z models initiated well aloft as there is a trough in the arctic beginning to drop south, weak ridging from the Yukon and Northwest Territory extending through the Interior to Wrangell Island. There is also a 519 decameter low in the Western Bering and a 538 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska. All together, this is bringing easterly to southeasterly flow over the Interior and West Coast as well as weak northwesterly flow turning southerly over the North Slope. The overall pattern shouldn't change too much as the low in the Gulf of Alaska remains the driver for Easterly flow through the weekend, then gets rejuvenated next week as the currently low in the Western Bering moves in. A trough in the high arctic will drop south tomorrow and bring strong offshore flow from Utqiagvik east. The main arctic low then drops over Point Lay Sunday night and to the Seward Peninsula by Monday afternoon.

Surface Analysis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in the Interior, especially over the higher terrain. These will become more numerous this afternoon as a front lifts north over the AK Range.
Around Fairbanks, there is a chance for a shower or storm, but the greatest risk remains north and east over the White Mountains.
Skies had cleared over much of the Arctic Coast west of Nuiqsut this morning, but stratus and some fog will move in again this evening and overnight. In Western AK, northerly winds near gale force will develop from Point Hope through the Bering Strait tomorrow evening. Much of Western Alaska remains dry today but there will be a few showers and even the slight chance for a storm over the higher terrain.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A very nice day in Western Alaska today with highs in the 60s to near 70 inland, and 50s to near 60 along the coast. The only exception will be from St. Lawrence Island northward where temperatures will be in the 30s to 40. A few showers and an isolated storm are possible over the higher terrain today while most low elevation areas remain dry. Temperatures tomorrow will be comparable to today with a bit more numerous showers and storms. Northerly winds will be increasing along the Bering Strait Coast with gale force gusts likely tomorrow night through Sunday.
There may be an isolated snow or rain shower as well. With these northerly winds, temperatures will cool by about 10 to 15 degrees across Western Alaska with highs around freezing from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior...
It will be a warm one today with highs reaching the low to mid 70s across much of the Interior. Showers and storms have already developed along the terrain and will become more numerous this afternoon. Heavy rain, small hail and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Similar conditions tomorrow with showers and storms, mainly over the higher terrain but temperatures will be a few degrees warmer across the board. On Sunday, temperatures cool back down to the 60s to near 70 because of some more widespread rain and clouds. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms seems to be setting up north and west of Fairbanks, but timing of the front will be key. Either way, this front should bring rain which may be heavy at times, especially over the higher terrain with wetting rains possible in the valleys Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers and storms continue for the next several days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Clear skies west of Nuiqsut will cloud up tonight with some fog developing along the coast. A front will then drop south tomorrow night with snow developing on Sunday as snow levels drop to sea level over parts of the NW Arctic. Overall, accumulations look to be 1 inch or less and it may transition to a mix of snow and freezing drizzle from Utqiagvik east on Monday. N winds will be fairly strong through Point Hope gusting into gale force range by late Sat. For the northern slopes of the Brooks Range, specifically Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass, there is a chance for snow Saturday night through Monday. The heaviest looks to come Sunday night through Monday morning with accumulating snow becoming more likely. At this time, exact accumulations are uncertain but amounts up to 4 inches are possible in the Passes with up to 6 inches above 5000 feet. Looking further, we are monitoring a warming trend towards the middle of next week with the chance for showers and storms in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
Isolated to widely scattered wet thunderstorms today will generally favor the White Mtns into the S Yukon Flats, which is where the best axis of instability is, with general isolated wet thunder across most of the remainder of the Interior, from Fairbanks north. Today is also warming and drying in valleys. Sat is the warmest and driest day RH wise, with near red flag conditions as northeast winds to 10 mph will be likely across the Interior, along with temps around 75 and min RH around 20-25 percent. Isolated wet thunder looks fairly spotty Sat with ridging aloft supporting mostly higher terrain thunder north of Fairbanks and over the Fortymile. Sunday, an easterly wave brings more chances for heavier showers with continued isolated wet thunder chances.

Out west, drying trend with general afternoon showers and isolated wet thunderstorms over the Interior the next couple days. Strong north winds and cooler temps will blast down along the coast from Sat through Mon.

HYDROLOGY
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-851-854-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.

Black
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:33 AM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 03:50 AM AKDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:34 AM AKDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM AKDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:03 PM AKDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black, Black River, Alaska, Tide feet

Kwikluak Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:07 AM AKDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:34 AM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 04:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM AKDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:46 PM AKDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:40 PM AKDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kwikluak Pass, Yukon River, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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