Sunrise 4:15 AM   Sunset 11:45 PM Moonrise 5:34 PM   Moonset 1:11 AM

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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Fri - E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat - E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Sun - E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 171341 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 541 AM AKDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Low marine stratus has engulfed the entire Gulf of Alaska and pushed up Cook Inlet and fairly far inland up the Susitna River valley this morning. The is the most challenging aspect of the forecast for today and maybe tomorrow: how far inland these low clouds will be able to make it inland and how much of the stratus all dissipate during the day? If this was any other time of the year except in the middle of summer, this stratus would likely persist for days as the region remains under high pressure with southwesterly surface flow. However, with the long daylight hours, it is likely much of the stratus over land will dissipate.
Over the Gulf and along the north Gulf coast (Seward and Cordova especially) there is a good chance it just stay socked in with that southwest surface flow. Stratus moving in and out of the Prince William Sound area and Cook Inlet may be a factor to deal with the next few days.

Inland, the airmass remains unstable, but not nearly as much as a few days ago. Most of the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are expected to be over elevated terrain.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA and THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska: Afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Valley and parts of the Alaska Range will return later today. The precipitation will start in the Alaska Range during the mid to late afternoon hours and migrate into the Kuskokwim Valley for the evening hours. The greatest chance of thunderstorms today stretches from Stony River west to Lower Kalskag. The main threats from the thunderstorms will be frequent lightning and small hail. Tuesday, late afternoon and evening isolated thunderstorms in the Alaska Range and scattered rain showers elsewhere can be expected. More widespread rain showers arrive Wednesday as Gulf Low brings mainly southerly to southwesterly flow to the area.

The Bering Sea and the Aleutians: A low south of Dutch Harbor will move eastward through the first part of this week. As its front along the southern Aleutian chain moves north an eastward through the day today, continued rain showers from the Central Aleutians to the AK Pen are expected. Also, persistent southerly to southeasterly winds will result in gap winds ranging from 20 to 30 kts for most of today in the Eastern Aleutians. Tomorrow, the rain showers shift eastward as the low moves toward the Eastern Aleutians; still staying south of the Aleutians though. Southerly to southeasterly flow remains from the Central Aleutians to the AK Peninsula. The chances of rain diminish in the ALeutians and the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday as this low dissipates.

-DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Model agreement is pretty good through the forecast period. The upper level high covers the Northern two- thirds of the Mainland before shifting to cover the Eastern half through the weekend.
This ridge supports surface thermal trough, maintaining the chances for convection. Coming from the Chukchi Sea through the Bering Strait, an upper level closed low weakens as it drifts into the Central Bering by Sunday. A trough moving over the Alaska Peninsula Thursday becomes a low center near the Southwest Gulf of Alaska Friday before meandering around the Gulf and the Eastern North Pacific through the end of the forecast period. While the main storm track is out in the North Pacific, weak troughs continues to slide along the Aleutians and AKPEN, continuing around the Gulf through the period.

Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected mostly in the Eastern Interior. Morning fog and stratus yields to afternoon showers across the Western Alaska coast and Pribilofs with the Bering low's movement. The upper low over the AKPEN brings locally heavy showers across Southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island starting Thursday. Weak fronts bring rain across the Aleutians and AKPEN, spreading into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska for late Saturday. Generally mild conditions spread across Southcentral through late Friday with scattered afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms developing through Sunday and clearing up/drying out afterwards.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...The big question for the airport has to do with southwesterly flow up Cook Inlet has brought in low stratus clouds and fog from the Gulf over much of Cook Inlet. At this time it looks like these low clouds will remain west of the airport, but this will certainly bear watching today, tonight and in coming days with the persistent southwesterly flow.

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Pete Dahl Slough
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:45 AM AKDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:15 AM AKDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM AKDT     3.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:00 PM AKDT     9.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pete Dahl Slough, Alaska, Tide feet

Eyak River entrance
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Mon -- 02:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM AKDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:23 AM AKDT     6.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM AKDT     3.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:08 PM AKDT     9.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eyak River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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