Sunrise 3:57 AM   Sunset 9:53 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 3:21 PM

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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 1230 Pm Akdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Today - SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the morning, then then 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Tonight - E wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Sun - E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.Sun night - E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.Mon - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Tue - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wed - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 011237 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 437 AM AKDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SHORT TERM
/ through Saturday night / Old parent low over the north central Gulf of Alaska continues in place spreading showers onshore the region through the day. For the daytime hours the best chance of rain will be near the coast mountain range east of the inner marine channels from the upslope flow, and another pocket of organized showers breaks away from the parent low to spread into the other coast from Southern Baranof Island northward.

Next impulse in the mid level low pattern is being pulled from a a system over western Aleutians east under the Gulf low where it will be influenced to turn Northeast Saturday evening and night and push that front into the southern panhandle late Saturday night. Winds near the front and to developed front to the old parent low as it 'connects' to it will be 25 to 35 kt. As the front approaches may need to watch for the gustiness increasing to where strong wind headlines might be needed.

With the front there will be another period of light to occasionally moderate rain rates, mainly for the southern panhandle. Recent rainfall has brought up stream levels in southern, however, the new rains at the moment should not be enough for flooding concerns. The biggest adjustment to the morning forecast was to reduce some of the PoPs for the northern portion of the forecast area overnight, as the system starts out headed into the southern panhandle and the flow pattern tends to not be as wet for the northern so PoPs down to 10 to 30 percent tonight.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Friday/ Long term outlook remains active for the next week as a broad upper trough remains in place over a majority of the state. Upper level low pressure will also be a semi permanent feature in the gulf, leading to periods of wet weather and occasionally stronger systems.

There are two primary systems of note during the end of the weekend and start of next week. The first is a moderately strong trough that will primarily impact the southern panhandle on Sunday. This will bring moderate to locally heavy rains as well as winds of 20 - 30 kt, primarily to the coastal gulf waters and Dixon Entrance/Clarence Strait. Some outflow winds will develop through Icy Strait as the trough rotates through the gulf as well, with winds of 15 to 25 kt with highest expected at Cross Sound.

The second system set to impact SE Alaska has the potential to be more impactful due to it incorporating the remnants of a former tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar). A strong jet will help propel this system towards Haida Gwaii Monday before it begins to recurve northward and northwestward on Tuesday. Unlike the Sunday storm, this one will likely bring moderate to heavy rain to a majority of the panhandle as it transits the gulf. The storm itself is expected to have substantial embedded moisture, while a significant plume of moisture will be primarily aimed further south toward the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Similar to the Sunday system, the southern panhandle will likely see the heaviest rainfall and highest totals for this timeframe. However, this system also has the potential to produce high wind gusts of 45 kt or more to Dixon Entrance and southern Prince of Wales Island as it approaches and makes its turn northward. The overall track of this feature and how healthy the storm is will play a major role into how the wind field sets up along the inside passage. At minimum, widespread small craft conditions with winds of 25+ kt can be expected to follow NE of the feature along the outer coast Tuesday and into Wednesday, with modest increases in winds in the inside waters as well with highest winds currently expected near Dixon Entrance. We will be watching this for further developments over the coming weekend.



AVIATION
Flying conditions across SE AK continue to be up and down this morning as the low over the western gulf continues to funnel more clouds and rain into the area. Conditions continue to be all over the place with some locations reporting VFR conditions with rain while elsewhere, IFR conditions are being reported with rain. Expect this to continue this morning as showers continue to move across the area. Some improvement is expected during the daytime part of the TAF period but conditions are expected to deteriorate for most places again this evening as another wave of precip moves around the low and into the panhandle.

MARINE
Incoming weather front wrapping around surface low in the gulf. Front will move into the southeast gulf and then the southern panhandle by early Sunday. Wind band with the front are roughly 30 kt to min gales late Saturday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.

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Cleveland Passage
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Sat -- 02:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:25 AM AKDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM AKDT     11.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:20 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:30 PM AKDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:54 PM AKDT     14.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Houghton
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Sat -- 02:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:05 AM AKDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM AKDT     12.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:10 PM AKDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:34 PM AKDT     15.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Houghton, Robert Islands, Stephens Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

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