Sunrise 3:57 AM   Sunset 9:53 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 3:21 PM

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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 252 Pm Akdt Sat Jun 1 2024
Tonight - SE wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 2 ft or less then 3 ft late. Sun - E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Sun night - E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. Mon - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Mon night - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Tue - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Wed - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Thu - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 012321 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 321 PM AKDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SHORT TERM
The persistent trend of back to back frontal passages endures as an upper level low and rather potent 500 mb jet, upwards of 80 knots, continues to send surface troughs up the panhandle. Extremely similar to yesterday's short term discussion, an easterly front is slowly moving up the panhandle and is diminishing as it passes. Easterly to southeasterly winds have picked up around the central panhandle with a bulk of the rain around Sitka to Petersburg. Areas around the Icy Strait corridor will likely see these increased winds but to a lesser extent, as well as some rainfall. Expect this front to decay over the afternoon and evening time frame and be replaced by yet another front from the south Sunday morning.

Somewhat more potent for the southern panhandle, this near gale system looks to move into the extreme southern panhandle early Sunday morning, bringing 30 knot winds and up to 11 ft seas.
Accompanying the winds is a dose of light to occasionally moderate rainfall, with most impactful conditions during the morning hours.
Yet again, the front will travel up the panhandle and decay, likely fully diminishing before the Icy Strait corridor. In lieu of south to southeasterly winds, central and northern channels could see a fast swap to northerly winds up to 10-15 knots.

Behind the front, rain showers will quickly begin to disappear as mid level drying will inhibit any widespread shower development, particularly towards the south.

LONG TERM
/ Monday through Saturday/ Little changes to the long term outlook which remains active for the next week as a broad upper trough remains in place over a majority of the state. Upper level low pressure will also be a semi permanent feature in the gulf, leading to periods of wet weather and occasionally stronger systems.
Due this active pattern, model uncertainty on timing and intensity begins to deviate more beyond mid week, leading to lower forecaster confidence for that timeframe.

One bright spot will be right at the start of the mid range forecast period as Monday looks to be a decent break for the panhandle between systems alluded to in the short range discussion. Mid level drying will inhibit shower development with more breaks in cloud cover during the day and overall lighter winds for the inner channels.

The primary system of note is set to impact SE Alaska has the potential to be more impactful due to it incorporating the remnants of a former tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar). A strong jet will propel this system towards Haida Gwaii Monday before it begins to recurve northward and northwestward on Tuesday. Unlike the Sunday storm, this one will likely bring moderate rain to a majority of the panhandle as it transits the gulf, with the heaviest rain still expected for the southern panhandle. The storm itself is expected to have substantial embedded moisture, while a significant plume of moisture will be primarily aimed further south toward the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Models have come into further agreement that this system will begin to weaken before it makes its turn north and west into the central gulf. However, this system still has the potential to produce frequent high wind gusts of 45 kt or more for Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait and southern Prince of Wales Island as it approaches and makes its turn northward.
Once again the overall track of this feature and how healthy the storm is will play a major role into how the wind field sets up along the inside passage. At minimum, small craft conditions with winds of 25+ kt can be expected to follow NE of the feature along the outer coast Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday, with modest increases in winds in the inside waters as well with highest winds currently expected near Dixon Entrance.

As mentioned above, the forecast beyond Tuesday's system is active but not as clear in terms of timing of significant features due to increasing divergence in model solutions. Overall expect continued unsettled weather with slightly cooler temperatures and continuing chances for showers.

AVIATION
VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle, but there are some showers around that are dropping ceilings down to MVFR conditions at times. Gusty winds and some light turbulence also still plague some areas like the northern inner channels and Yakutat area today. Conditions across the south will start to deteriorate tonight as a new front comes in from the gulf.
ceilings and Vis will drop down to MVFR conditions again with some isolated IFR. Winds will also be on the increase with some turbulence possible. Northern panhandle expected to be mostly VFR into Sunday with lighter winds. Improving conditions expected into Sunday night.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.

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Cleveland Passage
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Sun -- 02:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 04:29 AM AKDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:34 AM AKDT     12.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM AKDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:46 PM AKDT     15.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Houghton
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Sun -- 02:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:04 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 04:09 AM AKDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:14 AM AKDT     12.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM AKDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:26 PM AKDT     16.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Houghton, Robert Islands, Stephens Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

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