Sunrise 4:28 AM   Sunset 11:26 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 5:27 PM

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PKZ803 Kwikpak Pass To Cape Stephens Out To 15 Nm- 246 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon - .
Tonight - NW winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Mon - N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Mon night - NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Tue - NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Tue night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wed - NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wed night - NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 022109 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 109 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A bit of an active day today with plenty going on, let's get into it. Starting with the overall pattern, we have a convergence zone which is clearly visible on satellite. It extends from the NE Arctic Coast through the Central Brooks Range to SW AK. Convection has already begun to initiate and widely scattered thunderstorms will follow this afternoon from Coldfoot to McGrath as surface temperatures increase and helps break a cap aloft. In the NE Arctic, there is a chance for thunderstorms southeast of Atigun Pass towards Arctic Village. We will also be monitoring this area for mixed precipitation tonight and tomorrow. In FNSB, there is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly after 3 PM. The Eastern Interior southeast of Fort Yukon remains mostly dry today.
Looking out west, a cooling trend continues for most coastal locations with gusty winds from Kivalina southward. The Western Interior will have a chance for showers and storms, though most remain east of Nulato.

DISCUSSION

Upper Level Analysis...
Models have initialized very well with an arctic low in the Beaufort Sea dropping into the Chukchi and over the Seward Peninsula by tomorrow afternoon. An area of upper level divergence is located from the NE Arctic to SW AK. There is a weakening area of ridging from Fort Yukon northward to Kaktovik which will diminish through the day. Otherwise, a persistent area of low pressure remains in the Gulf of Alaska which has provided several easterly waves in the Interior and will continue to do so through the week.

Surface Analysis...
A stalled convergence boundary is stationed from the NE Arctic to SW AK with ongoing rain showers and areas of snow north of the Brooks Range. The SE Interior will remain dry this afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies. Around Fairbanks, partly to mostly sunny skies will transition to stormier looking skies this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop east of Fairbanks and move over the area after 3 PM. Over the West Coast, stratus will remain dominant over the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island while the remainder of the area has mixed clouds and sun with breezy and chilly conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
South and west of Nuiqsut remains mostly dry today, then light snow develops over the Arctic Plain tonight which traverses north to Utqiagvik by tomorrow afternoon. The kitchen sink will be thrown at the Central/Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range over the next few days. A convergence zone brings areas of light snow today which may turn briefly heavy this evening east of Anaktuvuk Pass. This snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain from Anaktuvuk Pass north/east to the coast. Ice accumulations are looking more likely to occur after midnight through 10 AM tomorrow morning. By 10 AM tomorrow, ice accumulations may be around a trace from Nuiqsut east, with a few hundredths in Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes. Temperatures will rise above freezing for most of this area during the afternoon. Areas of drizzle may continue at times during the afternoon, and this has the chance to transition to freezing drizzle tomorrow night along the Dalton Highway. Most of the precipitation will end during the day on Tuesday as a warming trend continues.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Southeast of Circle remains dry today with highs ranging from the 60s in the Tanana Valley to low 70s in Circle and Eagle. Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the White Mountains and around the Chena Recreation Area. These will maneuver west throughout the afternoon and evening with storms possible in Fairbanks after 3 PM. North and West of FNSB is where the bulk of the action will be situated. Numerous showers with widely scattered thunderstorms will be stationed from Bettles southwest to Tanana and McGrath. These storms may be accompanied with gusty winds up to 40 mph, heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall totals may be as much as 0.50 inches in the heaviest/most persistent rain.
Otherwise, easterly flow with rain and storms looks to continue through much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Most of the area remains dry today, but showers and storms will be around today from McGrath northeast with heavy rain possible. A few showers will be possible this evening from Galena east, but nothing too impactful. Otherwise along the coast, wind gradually weakens in the Bering Strait but increases along the rest of the coast with gusts from 25-35 mph expected this afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with highs near 50 in the YK Delta and mid to upper 60s inland. Wind will remain nearly the same through tomorrow afternoon then strengthen overnight along the Bering Strait Coast with gusts to 55 mph possible in Diomede and Wales through Tuesday night. Wind then weakens everywhere except from Kivalina to St. Lawrence Island where gale force gusts continue through Wednesday. A cooling trend will persist tomorrow with highs along the coast in the 30s. Isolated snow showers may develop in the Bering Strait Monday night, but not accumulations are expected.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
Cooler and wetter conditions are expected the next few days with only a few spots in the Yukon Flats reaching the mid 70s for highs. Thunderstorms will be the main story of the forecast as shortwave trough after shortwave trough make their way in from the east over the next few days. This pattern will remain quite persistent through at least Wednesday. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected today from Nikolai to Manley Hot Springs to Coldfoot and east across the White Mountains and Yukon Flats. Monday, expect widely scattered thunderstorms from Tanana to Arctic Village during the afternoon, then transition to Fort Yukon and the Fortymile during the evening with isolated storms elsewhere. Tuesday comes with isolated storms for most of the Interior and we are currently favoring north and east of Fairbanks in the terrain, to the Yukon Flats for widely scattered thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ810-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.

North Bay
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Sun -- 12:45 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 04:10 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM AKDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:57 PM AKDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Pikmiktalik River entrance
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Sun -- 12:40 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 04:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:21 AM AKDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:17 PM AKDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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