Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:05 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 329 Am Hst Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through early Tuesday morning - .
Today - North northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 3 seconds. Tonight - Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Wave detail: east southeast 3 feet at 3 seconds. Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, rising to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas to 2 feet or less, then to 3 feet in the afternoon. Monday night - Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Tuesday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less.

PHZ100 329 Am Hst Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters - A strong surface ridge will remain nearly stationary far north of the islands through Tuesday, then weaken and move over the islands on Wednesday and Thursday.

FXHW60 PHFO 021351 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 351 AM HST Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Breezy trades will continue into the middle of the week, before weakening and giving way to land and sea breezes during the second half of the week. An upper level trough over the islands through Tuesday may bring some heavier showers at times, especially over interior Big Island where there will be also be a chance for afternoon thunderstorms.



DISCUSSION
No major changes to the forecast this morning, however the winds for the Big Island summits over the next couple days was nudged upwards. Used a blend of the ECMWF and the GFS to account for the upper level trough moving over the islands which will bring some stronger, but still below advisory level, winds into mid week.

The overall forecast philosophy remains the same. A breezy trade wind pattern to remain in place through Tuesday. A mid to upper level trough has moved closer to the islands from the east overnight. The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo haven't shown many changes, but expect colder temperatures at the 500 mb to move in tonight.

High pressure remains far to the northeast of the islands, with a ridge north of 30N, which will maintain the breezy trade wind pattern into the middle of the week. Satellite derived precipitable water shows a drier airmass has moved over the smaller islands, and that is reflected in the Lihue sounding overnight which reported 1.12 inches. More moisture is found near the Big Island where the sounding had 1.28 inches. Several gages on the eastern side of the Big Island have reported more than an inch of rain since last evening. Anticipate additional showers over the east side of the Big Island, and to a lesser extent over Maui. The remaining islands will have some clouds overhead, but the chance for showers will be significantly lower.

A mid to upper level trough moving over the islands from the east will lead to an increasing unstable airmass over the islands through Tuesday. The trough is expected to sharpen and pivot over the islands during this time, before lifting north and then east away from the region. The global models are in good agreement that this trough will bring colder temperatures to 500 mb. The ECMWF keeps temperatures around -10/-11C, while the GFS brings in even colder temperatures of -12/-13C. These temperatures are significantly colder than normal for June. At 700 mb there isn't much different in the temperatures between these models with temperature getting to around 4/6C which is colder than normal but not as climatologically colder. Additional the coldest temperatures at 700 mb look to be focused near Kauai, while the colder 500 mb temperatures reach most of the islands.
Thunderstorms were added with the afternoon package to the Big Island forecast for Monday and Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance being Tuesday afternoon. Leeward island plumes over the nearshore waters will also be candidates for nocturnal thunderstorm activity during this time, however confidence is lower so that is not currently reflected in the forecast.

The second half of the week will see the a new mid-level ridge setting up far northwest of the islands, as a front north of the islands weakens to a trough. This will cause our winds to weaken and turn to the southeast. This could lead to some land and sea breezes over the islands. With a decrease in precipitable water and a more stable airmass overhead, expect a decrease in shower activity, with clouds and showers more likely during the afternoon and evening hours over interior and southeast facing portions of the islands.



AVIATION

Breezy to strong trades will continue, as a surface high moves closer to the state from the northeast. Low cigs and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas with periods of MVFR conds possible in any SHRA. VFR conds should prevail elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island and N thru SE sections of the smaller islands.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low- level turb S thru W of terrain, as well as for moderate turb between FL300-FL400.

AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no time table for return to service.



MARINE

A 1028 mb surface high centered about 900 nm NE of the islands will remain nearly stationary through the remainder today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to only include zones in the typically windy areas around Maui county and the Big Island. The high is expected to weaken slightly on Monday, but will still help to support fresh to locally strong ENE trade winds through Tuesday. On Wednesday, a frontal system approaching from the northwest will allow the high to weaken significantly, and lead to light and variable winds through the end of the week.

An extended period of elevated surf along S facing shores is now underway, with numerous swell pulses expected, mainly from the SSW. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is likely to be needed for the largest of the swells, which may not arrive until next weekend.
Nearshore buoys S of the islands continue to indicate increased energy in the longer 15-17 second period bands this morning, equating to elevated surf, but below HSA levels. This swell likely peak today into Monday, then gradually ease Tuesday before additional long-period swells arrive.

A strong, slow-moving low in the distant NW Pacific generated what will be a small NW swell when it arrives in the islands Monday and Tuesday (3 to 4 foot medium period swell from 320 direction), with the potential for a small follow- up NW swell later in the week. Trade winds will continue to generate short- period wind waves that will support choppy surf along exposed E facing shores the next couple of days.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Lahaina
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:41 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:44 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:52 AM HST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM HST     2.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:36 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:04 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:44 PM HST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lahaina, Maui Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kahului
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:40 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:24 AM HST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:34 PM HST     2.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:35 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:21 PM HST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:06 PM HST     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii, Tide feet

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