Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 6:58 PM Moonrise 12:43 PM   Moonset 12:29 AM

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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 929 Am Ast Wed Mar 8 2023
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers.Thursday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.

AMZ700 921 Pm Ast Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . Surface high pressure over the atlantic and an induced trough east of the area will promote moderate east to northeast winds through the rest of tonight. Frontal remnants from the northeast and an upper level trough are expected to increase the potential for showers and isolated Thunderstorms through tomorrow. Winds will continue to diminish and veer, becoming east-southeast to southeast throughout the weekend with increasing saharan dust through Sunday.

FXCA62 TJSJ 140032 AAA AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 832 PM AST Thu Jun 13 2024

UPDATE
Showers have cleared off of the Atlantic waters and very few showers were seen over land as of 8 PM AST. Some moisture is moving toward the area from the northeast but shower formation is expected to be minimal. An interesting circulation northeast of the area has also been traveling southwest at 13 mph for the last 15 hours. A small thunderstorm burst from its center about 340 miles northeast of San Juan, but otherwise it was just an interesting cloud pattern. Precipitable water is nearly at a minimum over the area tonight but is expected to rebound to almost 2 inches by late Friday afternoon. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to western Puerto Rico. Saharan dust is also expected to make an appearance Friday and increase to significant levels through Saturday. Haze continues in the forecast Saturday night through midnight Monday morning. The addition of significant Saharan air indicates that temperatures will likely remain quite warm Friday and increase on saturday. An excessive heat watch has been issued for Friday and will almost certainly be necessary for Saturday when the forecast is issued on Friday.dangerously hot conditions are possible. No changes were noted in the marine situation, which should remain benign for the next 7 to 10 days in our area.

AVIATION

VFR conds will prevail for the next 24 to 36 hours except between 1630-2200Z on Friday in western and interior Puerto Rico when SHRA/TSRA will bring MVFR-IFR conds. Due to wind direction only brief MVFR conds are expected at TJBQ. Wind flow will be 8 to 12 kts thru 14/12Z with land breeze influences. Then sea breezes will set in and winds will veer slowly to the SE through 15/12Z.

CLIMATE
The high in San Juan reached 91 degrees this afternoon which is not a record, however the minimum so far is 81 degrees which, if it holds, will break the record of 79 set in 2022 and 6 prior years as far back as 1941.

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 459 PM AST Thu Jun 13 2024/

SYNOPSIS...

A surface trough passing through the region tomorrow will continue a pattern of passing showers and afternoon convection, mainly across western Puerto Rico. Isolated areas may experience heavy rainfall at times, however mid to upper-level ridging will limit widespread rainfall. By Saturday, a plume of Saharan dust of moderare to high concentration is forecast to spread across the region, causing hot and hazy conditions that last through the second half of the weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday

A mid to upper ridge is forecast to build and then linger across the region into this upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure extending southwards to just north of the region and an induced surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles will maintain a light to moderate east to northeast wind flow tonight, then becoming east- southeast to southeast throughout the weekend.

Low level moisture from a departed tropical wave and an old frontal boundary will continue to allow showers to linger this evening before dry air moves in, lasting through tomorrow morning.
The passage of the surface trough tomorrow afternoon will bring an increase of moisture and instability across the region which will assist afternoon convection mainly across western interior sections of Puerto Rico. Isolated areas may experience heavy rainfall at times, however the mid to upper-level ridging will limit widespread rainfall.

By Saturday, a plume of Saharan dust of moderare to high concentration is forecast to spread across the region while the local low level wind flow becomes more southeasterly By then with the southeasterly winds expect another round of hotter and hazy conditions due to the combination of suspended dust particulates and the mid to upper leve ridging, which will favor subsidence and compression of the warm air resulting in limited convective development across the islands. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 90s especially along the north and west coastal areas with maximum heat indices expected to be in the low 100s once again with excessive heat impacts probable particularly along the coastal and urban areas.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday
/from previous discussion/ Hot and hazy conditions will continue to start the long term period. Current model guidance suggests precipitable water (PWAT)
at below normal to normal values to start the period, with only few patches of more humid air, from frontal remnants, moving through the islands. Southeasterly surface windflow is expected to persist on Sunday as a Surface high is present over the Atlantic.
This will steer warmer tropical air towards the islands, promoting overall warm to hot conditions. Heat related products will likely be issued for the islands later on. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to be above normal to start the period.
Model guidance suggests more easterly winds to start the workweek as the Atlantic surface high weakens. Saharan dust particles will continue to start the period as well, promoting hazy skies at least through Tuesday. Although model guidance suggest some moisture over the mid levels, a more notable increase is suggested by Wednesday. Most available moisture for the period will remain below 850 mb, however. A decrease in PWAT values is now forecast for Monday and most of Tuesday, with an increase by Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure aloft will start to weaken as we head into the workweek.

AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions will continue across the area except for SHRA/TSRA dvlpg aft 13/17Z ovr wrn and interior PR till 13/23Z. Wind flow is easterly 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt on the coasts in sea breezes.
Aft 14/01Z winds bcmg easterly 10 kt or less with land breezes. SHRA will be mainly ovr the local waters and isold ovr the east coast of PR. Aft 14/13Z winds will become sea breezes in east to southeast flow.

MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the Atlantic and an induced trough east of the area will promote moderate east to northeast winds through tonight. Frontal remnants from the northeast and an upper level trough are expected to increase the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms through tomorrow. Winds will continue to diminish and veer, becoming east-southeast to southeast throughout the weekend with increasing Saharan dust through Sunday.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-005-008-010.

VI...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.

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Fri -- 12:30 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM AST     First Quarter
Fri -- 02:36 AM AST     0.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:43 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:21 AM AST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:43 PM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 PM AST     0.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:57 PM AST     0.43 feet Low Tide
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