Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 6:57 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 3:14 PM

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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 929 Am Ast Wed Mar 8 2023
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Numerous showers.Thursday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.

AMZ700 400 Pm Ast Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail tonight. The rest of the week expect a dominant southerly to southeasterly component. A wetter pattern is anticipated through at least mid-week as a tropical wave approaches the region from the southeast increasing moisture, seas, and winds, as a result small craft should exercise caution across most of the regional waters and local passages.

FXCA62 TJSJ 022054 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 454 PM AST Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

Wet and unstable conditions are expected throughout the week due to an approaching tropical wave and its moisture field. Therefore, the risk of flooding rains will be elevated across most of the forecast area. Improving conditions are foreseen by next weekend.

SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...

Today we have already begun the transition to a wet unstable pattern fueled by the moisture field of a tropical wave that approaches the islands from the southeast and a low-level jet. In the early morning hours, variable and hot conditions under partly cloudy skies prevailed with scattered showers moving through the Caribbean Waters, local passages, and east-southeast of Puerto Rico. Before midday, activity intensified and cloudiness increased resulting in an active day with multiple flood advisories and flash flood warnings due to a strong severe thunderstorm that moved into the southeast bringing periods of heavy rain and wind gusts. In Guayama and Yabucoa, wind gusts of 50 and 48 mph respectively were recorded. At this time, the Radar Doppler showed rainfall estimates between 2 to 5.5 inches. Municipalities of the eastern and southeastern quadrants of Puerto Rico received the greatest accumulations. As a consequence, river gauges across area rivers reported multiple rivers in that region in action stage, minor, and moderate flood levels. Emergency managers reported some rescues due to flooding waters in Maunabo and Naguabo. Flood Warnings continue in effect along Rio Blanco in Naguabo until 6 PM and Rio Canovanas and its tributaries until 8 PM. Additional Flood Warning will likely be needed until waters recede, stay tuned!

Additional periods of rainfall activity are possible tonight into tomorrow morning, especially across eastern sectors of Puerto Rico and local islands, and waters. For the remainder of the period, we are anticipating a wet and unstable pattern. According to the latest model guidance, the precipitable water content will remain at above- normal levels throughout the work week, approximately 2.20 to 2.50 inches, due to the synoptic scenario and a moist south- southeast wind flow. Therefore, the risk of flooding rains will be elevated across most of the forecast area.
Flooding of urban areas, roads, and small streams, as well as isolated flash floods, are possible in the upcoming week.
Residents and visitors should avoid activities in small streams and waterfalls due to the risk of sudden water rises across the area rivers, and are encouraged to remain weather- aware for any future updates.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 500 AM AST Sun Jun 2 2024/

Most recent model guidance suggests Precipitable Water(PW) values ranging from the 75th percentile (above normal values) to above the 2-standard deviation for this time of the year as lingering moisture from a departing tropical wave continues to promote showers and thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. We forecast the thunderstorm activity to be stronger over western PR, particularly by the afternoon hours.
However, the stronger or more convective part of the tropical wave will remain well to the south of the islands. The persistent mid- to upper-level trough across the northwestern Caribbean will favor periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms near the forecast area, particularly over the Hispaniola, and potentially reach some areas of western Puerto Rico through mid-week. At this time, models suggest Wednesday as the most unstable day of the long-term period. Therefore, the risk of flooding rains will stay elevated across all the islands.

As this pattern unfolds, a deep layered ridge will build and hold just east of the Leeward Islands. The interactions of these weather features will promote divergence aloft and south-to- southwesterly wind flow at the surface. That being said, we foresee warm to hot conditions across the islands. However, it will depend on how much cloud cover and rainfall materialize over the islands.

A drying trend is still expected by the end of the workweek into the weekend as a broad surface ridge becomes the dominant weather feature.

AVIATION

(18z TAFs)

A tropical wave will likely bring VCSH/VCTS across the local area today. Therefore, areas of MVFR conds and mtn tops obscd can be expected as the day progresses. Winds will prevail from the east to southeast at 10-18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail tonight. The rest of the week expect a dominant southerly to southeasterly component. A wetter pattern is anticipated through at least mid-week as a tropical wave approaches the region from the southeast increasing moisture, seas, and winds, as a result small craft should exercise caution across most of the regional waters and local passages.

BEACH FORECAST

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect from Monday morning to Monday afternoon for beaches of St Croix. A moderate risk is expected across most southern and eastern facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, St Thomas, And St John tonight into Monday, while a low risk is anticipated for northern beaches of Puerto Rico. The risk of rip currents is expected to remain between low and moderate through at least midweek, then return to low by the end of next week.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.

VI...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.

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Roosevelt Roads
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:28 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:40 AM AST     0.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:24 AM AST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 PM AST     1.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:19 AM AST     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:28 AM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:59 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:45 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM AST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:58 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:05 PM AST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:14 PM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:53 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:55 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:30 PM AST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:53 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current, knots

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