Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM   Moonset 3:43 PM

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AMZ085 Atlantic S Of 22n W Of 70w Including Approaches To The Windward Passage- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - NE to E winds 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Tonight - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wed - NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Thu - NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Sat night - NE to E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXCA62 TJSJ 020900 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 500 AM AST Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

A mixture of hazy skies along with an increase in moisture is expected today. We anticipate the typical afternoon across western Puerto Rico. Wet and unstable conditions are expected early next week due to an approaching tropical wave. Improving conditions are foreseen from next Friday onwards.

SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...

As a tropical wave approaches the islands from the southeast and a broad surface trough develops west of the region, we can expect a gradual increase in moisture content for the rest of the short-term period. According to the latest model guidance, the precipitable water content will rise to above-normal levels, approximately 2.20 to 2.50 inches, by late today into Monday due to the synoptic scenario and a moist southeast wind flow. This will heighten the risk of flooding rains across most of the forecast area, potentially leading to flooding in urban areas, roads, and small streams, as well as isolated flash floods in the upcoming week. It is advisable for residents and visitors to avoid activities near small streams and waterfalls due to the risk of sudden water rises in the area's rivers. Thunderstorms today could produce frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Additionally, a weak Saharan Air Layer remains over the area, leading to a combination of haze and increasing humidity. This weather pattern will contribute to warm to hot temperatures, and heat indices are expected to reach heat advisory criteria along the southern, western, and northern coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and St. Croix. Therefore, a Heat Advisory (NPWSJU) is in effect for these areas.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

Most recent model guidance suggests Precipitable Water(PW) values ranging from the 75th percentile (above normal values) to above the 2-standard deviation for this time of the year as lingering moisture from a departing tropical wave continues to promote showers and thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. We forecast the thunderstorm activity to be stronger over western PR, particularly by the afternoon hours.
However, the stronger or more convective part of the tropical wave will remain well to the south of the islands. The persistent mid- to upper-level trough across the northwestern Caribbean will favor periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms near the forecast area, particularly over the Hispaniola, and potentially reach some areas of western Puerto Rico through mid-week. At this time, models suggest Wednesday as the most unstable day of the long-term period. Therefore, the risk of flooding rains will stay elevated across all the islands.

As this pattern unfolds, a deep layered ridge will build and hold just east of the Leeward Islands. The interactions of these weather features will promote divergence aloft and south-to- southwesterly wind flow at the surface. That being said, we foresee warm to hot conditions across the islands. However, it will depend on how much cloud cover and rainfall materialize over the islands.

A drying trend is still expected by the end of the workweek into the weekend as a broad surface ridge becomes the dominant weather feature.

AVIATION

(06z TAFs)

A tropical wave will likely bring VCSH/VCTS across the local area today. Therefore, areas of MVFR conds and mtn tops obscd can be expected as the day progresses. Winds will prevail from the east to southeast at 10-15 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail today. The rest of the week expect a dominant southerly to southeasterly component. A wetter pattern is anticipated from today through at least mid-week as a tropical wave approaches the region from the southeast increasing moisture, seas, and winds.

BEACH FORECAST

A moderate risk is expected across most of the beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. While, a low risk is anticipated for western and south central Puerto Rico. The risk of rip currents is expected to remain between low and moderate through at least midweek, then return to low by the end of next week.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-003-005-007-008-010-011.

VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.

Sandy Point
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Sun -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT     0.77 meters High Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:30 AM EDT     0.27 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.90 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sandy Point, North Caicos Island, Tide feet

Hawks Nest Anchorage
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Sun -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:05 PM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hawks Nest Anchorage, Turks Islands, Tide feet

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