Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM   Moonset 2:47 PM

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AMZ085 Atlantic S Of 22n W Of 70w Including Approaches To The Windward Passage- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - NE to E winds 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Tonight - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wed - NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Thu - NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Sat night - NE to E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXCA62 TJSJ 010848 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 448 AM AST Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS

Expect the hazy skies and warm weather conditions to prevail through the weekend and early next week. We anticipate the typical afternoon across western and northwestern Puerto Rico.
Wet and unstable conditions are expected early next week due to an approaching tropical wave. Improving conditions are foreseen from Friday onwards.

SHORT TERM
Today through Monday...

Hot temperatures are expected to continue through the rest of the short term period. Heat indices are expected to range from 104 to 112 degrees Fahrenheit, mainly along the lower elevations of western and northern Puerto Rico, and St. Croix. Therefore, another Heat Advisory (NPWSJU) was issued across these areas, and will likely be issued once again on Sunday and Monday. Hazy skies will continue today and through at least early Sunday as the area remains under the influence of a Saharan Air Layer with moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust. This drier air mass will limit shower activity in general, but diurnally induced streamers developing off the USVI and smaller islands and possible isolated thunderstorms could still develop once again this afternoon over western PR.

On Sunday and Monday, a gradual increase in moisture content is expected as a tropical wave streams across the islands and a broad surface trough develops west of the region. The precipitable water content is forecast to increase from around 1.50 inches today to near 2.50 inches by late Sunday into Monday morning under a moist southeast wind flow. Therefore, the risk for flooding rains will increase across the USVI and most areas of Puerto Rico. Residents and visitors in PR should avoid activities in small streams and waterfalls due to the risk of sudden water rises across the area rivers.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...

The inherited forecast remains unchanged. The latest model guidance suggests Precipitable Water(PW) values staying in the 75th percentile or above normal values for this time of the year as lingering moisture from a departing tropical wave continues to promote showers and thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with some thunderstorms potentially being strong over western PR. We foresee a wet weather pattern unfolding across the northeastern Caribbean as a mid-to-upper-level trough moves from the northwestern to the north-central Caribbean while a deep layered ridge builds and holds just east of the Leeward Islands. This weather pattern will promote divergence aloft and south-to-southwesterly wind flow at the surface. As mentioned in previous discussions, an elongated area of low pressure will develop to our north/northwest, particularly by the first part of the week. In response, moisture pooling is generally expected across the local area through most of the long-term period, with guidance suggesting 2.00-2.50 inches of precipitable water content, peaking from Tuesday into midweek. Therefore, the risk of flooding rains will significantly increase across all the islands. Nonetheless, with the persistent southerly winds and high humidity, we can expect warm to hot conditions across the islands. However, it will depend on how much cloud cover and rainfall materialize over the islands.

A drying trend is expected by the end of the workweek and early in the weekend as a broad surface ridge becomes the dominant weather feature. Overall, expect wet and somehow unstable weather conditions to prevail through Thursday and improve weather conditions from Friday onwards.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop btw 01/17z-21z in and around TJBQ, causing tempo MVFR conds. HZ due to Saharan dust will continue through early Sunday, this is causing false cigs at TISX. ESE winds expected at 10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 01/14z.

MARINE

A moderate east to southeast wind flow will prevail across the region today, becoming easterly briefly on Sunday, and with a dominant southerly component through midweek next week. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the weekend between the late afternoon and evening hours across the western waters of Puerto Rico.
A wetter pattern is anticipated by Sunday into early next week as the next tropical wave will approach the region.

BEACH FORECAST

A low risk of rip currents will continue today across most beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John while a moderate risk is expected across southwestern Puerto Rico, Vieques, and St. Croix. The risk of rip currents is expected to remain between low and moderate throughout the upcoming weekend. A high risk of rip current is possible across the beaches in Saint Croix.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-005-008-010.

VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.

Abrahams Bay
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Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:28 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:55 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Abrahams Bay, Mayaguana Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Sandy Point
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Sat -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.81 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.30 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.84 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.38 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sandy Point, North Caicos Island, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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