Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arroyo, PR
May 5, 2024 12:13 PM CST (18:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:19 AM Sunset 5:55 PM Moonrise 4:29 AM Moonset 4:32 PM |
Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 050921 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 521 AM AST Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for all Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands until this afternoon, with saturated soils, any brief period of heavy showers or persistent light rain could lead to urban and small-stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and debris flow. The precipitable water content is forecast to remain above normal levels through at least next Thursday, with a drying trend anticipated by the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...
Calm weather conditions prevailed overnight with little to no rain and a few low-level clouds. GOES-E detected a cloud deck between the mid and upper levels, with a more significant presence near St.
Croix. Shower activity began to increase offshore across the Atlantic Waters early this morning. Minimum temperatures have been in the mid and upper 70s across most coastal sites and in the mid and upper 60s along mountains and valleys.
The wet pattern, fueled by near to above-normal moisture, will persist throughout the beginning of this week. MIMIC-TPW2 has indicated a wet air mass with values between 1.80 and 2.00 inches, lending further support to the GFS guidance. Later today, the GFS guidance suggests the possibility of additional moisture being drawn from the Eastern Caribbean south of us over the islands. The National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests calm weather conditions during the day, followed by an active afternoon and evening weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Cordillera Central and north of it and near La Sierra de Luquillo, as well as downwind from St Croix. Environmental conditions remain conducive to flash flooding, river flooding, mudslides, and landslides, a potential risk due to last week's weather conditions.
Therefore, it's crucial to stay vigilant and prepared for any additional. St Thomas and southern Puerto Rico, both, has the potential to observe a mixture of sunshine and clouds with little to no rain most of the day.
An upper-level trough will swing by Monday and Tuesday, which combined with the lingering above-normal moisture content will promote the continuation of the wet and unstable pattern. Although we can anticipate periods of no rain, due to the much above normal river streamflows, and saturated soils, any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could result in dangerous flooding problems as well as sudden mudslides/landslides. Currently, the most active day, based on the latest model guidance could be expected between late Monday into Tuesday.
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...
By Wednesday, the latest models agree that a surface high pressure will remain dominating over the central Atlantic promoting light to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds through the end of the workweek. At upper levels, another trough should move through Thursday, maintaining unstable conditions across the islands with a moist airmass lingering over the local area. The Precipitable Water (PWAT) models are suggesting above-normal climatological levels through at least next Thursday; with values around 1.90-2.20 inches. Consequently, the wet pattern is expected to continue by midweek with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms development each afternoon. We encourage residents and visitors to remain weather-aware because any additional shower activity over saturated soils will further enhance the potential for flash flooding and mudslides.
Thursday night into the weekend, a mid to upper-level ridge extends into the local area from the western Caribbean, bringing a drier airmass into the upper levels with PWAT values around normal levels, decreasing the potential for shower development. By Saturday, the high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote southeasterly winds across our area. As a result, diurnal and local effects can promote afternoon showers and thunderstorm activity mainly across the interior to western Puerto Rico, but not expecting significant accumulations since moisture levels should be lower. In addition, a Saharan Air Layer should be near the area, but the greater concentrations should stay over the Caribbean waters.
In summary, expect unstable weather conditions to continue by the middle of the week, then more stable conditions are anticipated from Friday onwards.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will prevail this morning, but the unstable weather pattern will promote the formation of SHRA/TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evening. VCTS/TSRA may continue to promote tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions btwn 05/16-23z near JSJ/JBQ/ISX. Surface winds will shift from the ENE aft 05/12Z, ranging between 10-15 kt, but locally higher due to sea breeze variations and in/near TSRA.
MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western to central Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through the forecast period. A northeasterly swell is expected to spread across the local waters by Tuesday and gradually increase seas to around 5 to 6 feet through the end of the week. Remnant moisture from the induced surface trough located to our east will continue to promote shower and isolated thunderstorms development across the regional waters during the afternoon and evening for the next several days.
BEACH FORECAST
Low risk of rip currents should continue through Monday, then becoming moderate from Tuesday onwards. However, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of jetties, and piers.
HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of PR and the USVI through this afternoon. Please refer to the latest Flood Watch (FFASJU)
for more information.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for PRZ001>013.
VI...Flood Watch through this afternoon for VIZ001-002.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 521 AM AST Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for all Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands until this afternoon, with saturated soils, any brief period of heavy showers or persistent light rain could lead to urban and small-stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and debris flow. The precipitable water content is forecast to remain above normal levels through at least next Thursday, with a drying trend anticipated by the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...
Calm weather conditions prevailed overnight with little to no rain and a few low-level clouds. GOES-E detected a cloud deck between the mid and upper levels, with a more significant presence near St.
Croix. Shower activity began to increase offshore across the Atlantic Waters early this morning. Minimum temperatures have been in the mid and upper 70s across most coastal sites and in the mid and upper 60s along mountains and valleys.
The wet pattern, fueled by near to above-normal moisture, will persist throughout the beginning of this week. MIMIC-TPW2 has indicated a wet air mass with values between 1.80 and 2.00 inches, lending further support to the GFS guidance. Later today, the GFS guidance suggests the possibility of additional moisture being drawn from the Eastern Caribbean south of us over the islands. The National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests calm weather conditions during the day, followed by an active afternoon and evening weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Cordillera Central and north of it and near La Sierra de Luquillo, as well as downwind from St Croix. Environmental conditions remain conducive to flash flooding, river flooding, mudslides, and landslides, a potential risk due to last week's weather conditions.
Therefore, it's crucial to stay vigilant and prepared for any additional. St Thomas and southern Puerto Rico, both, has the potential to observe a mixture of sunshine and clouds with little to no rain most of the day.
An upper-level trough will swing by Monday and Tuesday, which combined with the lingering above-normal moisture content will promote the continuation of the wet and unstable pattern. Although we can anticipate periods of no rain, due to the much above normal river streamflows, and saturated soils, any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could result in dangerous flooding problems as well as sudden mudslides/landslides. Currently, the most active day, based on the latest model guidance could be expected between late Monday into Tuesday.
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...
By Wednesday, the latest models agree that a surface high pressure will remain dominating over the central Atlantic promoting light to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds through the end of the workweek. At upper levels, another trough should move through Thursday, maintaining unstable conditions across the islands with a moist airmass lingering over the local area. The Precipitable Water (PWAT) models are suggesting above-normal climatological levels through at least next Thursday; with values around 1.90-2.20 inches. Consequently, the wet pattern is expected to continue by midweek with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms development each afternoon. We encourage residents and visitors to remain weather-aware because any additional shower activity over saturated soils will further enhance the potential for flash flooding and mudslides.
Thursday night into the weekend, a mid to upper-level ridge extends into the local area from the western Caribbean, bringing a drier airmass into the upper levels with PWAT values around normal levels, decreasing the potential for shower development. By Saturday, the high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote southeasterly winds across our area. As a result, diurnal and local effects can promote afternoon showers and thunderstorm activity mainly across the interior to western Puerto Rico, but not expecting significant accumulations since moisture levels should be lower. In addition, a Saharan Air Layer should be near the area, but the greater concentrations should stay over the Caribbean waters.
In summary, expect unstable weather conditions to continue by the middle of the week, then more stable conditions are anticipated from Friday onwards.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will prevail this morning, but the unstable weather pattern will promote the formation of SHRA/TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evening. VCTS/TSRA may continue to promote tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions btwn 05/16-23z near JSJ/JBQ/ISX. Surface winds will shift from the ENE aft 05/12Z, ranging between 10-15 kt, but locally higher due to sea breeze variations and in/near TSRA.
MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western to central Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through the forecast period. A northeasterly swell is expected to spread across the local waters by Tuesday and gradually increase seas to around 5 to 6 feet through the end of the week. Remnant moisture from the induced surface trough located to our east will continue to promote shower and isolated thunderstorms development across the regional waters during the afternoon and evening for the next several days.
BEACH FORECAST
Low risk of rip currents should continue through Monday, then becoming moderate from Tuesday onwards. However, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of jetties, and piers.
HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of PR and the USVI through this afternoon. Please refer to the latest Flood Watch (FFASJU)
for more information.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for PRZ001>013.
VI...Flood Watch through this afternoon for VIZ001-002.
AM...None.
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