Monday, May27, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Pole Ojea, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 5:59PM Sunday May 26, 2019 10:59 PM CST (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:04PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PR
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location: -39.86, -75.19     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 270104
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
904 pm ast Sun may 26 2019

Update Showers and thunderstorms affected interior and western
portions of puerto rico during the afternoon hours with rainfall
accumulations ranging between 1 to 3 inches. Additional showers
affected the san juan metro area, where 1 to 2 inches of rain were
observed across portions of carolina, san juan, and trujillo alto.

Scattered showers continue to affect portions of north-central,
northwest, and southwest puerto rico as of this writing and should
gradually dissipate during the next couple of hours. Latest tjsj
sounding shows moisture on the increase with a precipitable of
1.99 inches. Latest model guidance indicates deep tropical
moisture moving across the area during the next couple days with
precipitable water values expected to range between 2.0 and 2.2
inches. Therefore, the potential is there for heavy rainfall
activity to develop across interior, western, and northwest puerto
rico during the afternoon hours as the moisture will combine with
daytime heating and local effects. Additional showers are also
likely across the san juan metro area and eastern portions of
puerto rico. Therefore, the potential will exist for urban and
small stream flooding as well as rapid river rises and mudslides
in areas of steep terrain, especially across interior and western
puerto rico where the soils are saturated. Across the usvi,
isolated to scattered showers are possible at times, however,
significant rainfall activity is not expected at this time.

Aviation MainlyVFR conditions should prevail across the local
terminals through 27 16z. Shra and TS are expected across interior
and western pr between 27 16z and 27 23z, possibly affecting tjmz
and tjbq terminals. MVFR to possibly ifr conditions are possible,
especially if the activity moves over the terminals. Winds are
expected to be light and variable overnight, increasing to 10 to
15 knots from the ese to SE with sea breeze variations after
27 14z.

Marine Seas up to 5 feet will continue through Monday afternoon
across the regional waters. Then by Monday night, as a northerly
swell affects the atlantic waters and local passages, seas will
increase up to 6 feet. Moderate risk of rip currents continues for
the northern beaches of pr, culebra, vieques, and saint thomas
through Monday.

Prev discussion issued 510 pm ast Sun may 26 2019
synopsis... A light to moderate east to east-southeast wind flow
will prevail for the rest of the workweek. An easterly
perturbation will bring an increase in moisture at least until
Tuesday, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly
across the interior and western sections of pr. A mid to upper
level trough will arrive by midweek, increasing instability and
upper level support for additional thunderstorm development across
the region. A drier air mass will move over the area by the end
of the week.

Short term... Today through Tuesday...

locally numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms across
portions of the interior and western pr should diminish after
sunset. Between 1-3 inches of rain was estimated since noon today
across these areas and up to 2 inches over portions carolina, san
juan and trujillo alto. Scattered showers were observed from
streamers off the usvi and an isolated thunderstorm developed
just northwest of st. Croix. However, rainfall over land areas
across the usvi was minimal. Passing showers will gradually
increase tonight through Monday morning across the usvi and
eastern coastal sections of pr.

A weak easterly perturbation across the eastern caribbean will
increase the available low level moisture and promote light to
moderate east to southeast winds through the short term period.

This will aid in the development of locally induced afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the interior and
west northwest pr as well over the san juan metro area.

Therefore, the potential for urban and small stream flooding will
remain high each day. Across the usvi, scattered showers are
possible each day and similar to today, a brief thunderstorm or
two could develop off the western coastal waters of the islands.

Long term... Wednesday through Sunday... From prev discussion
a wetter and unsettled weather pattern is expected during the
long-term forecast period, but recent model guidance suggests
that this pattern will hold only on Wednesday and Thursday. This
will be the result of high moisture content across the region with
pw model estimated values ranging between 2.15 inches on
Wednesday morning to 1.93 inches on Thursday afternoon. In
addition, a series of southeasterly propagating mid to upper level
short-wave troughs will promote favorable upper level conditions--
a divergence pattern and increased instability aloft--during this
period. If models forecast unfolds, which so far they have been
fairly consistent, these conditions will support enhanced shower
and thunderstorms development while maintaining an elevated
potential for urban and small stream flooding across the local

A more seasonal weather pattern with overnight and morning
showers streaming over the waters into eastern puerto rico and the
u.S. Virgin islands, followed by locally induced afternoon
convection along the interior and western puerto rico is expected
to return on Friday and continue through the weekend.

Aviation...VFR conds durg entire prd except for isold shra ovr
regional waters and en route btw islands. Few tops nr fl240.

Aftn shra isold tsra mainly ovr ctrl and W pr and vcty
tjsj tjmz tjbq tjnr til 26 22z. Sfc wnds fm E 10-15 kts W sea breeze
variations and ocnl hir gusts... Bcmg lgt vrb aft 25 23z. No sig
operational wx impacts attm.

Marine... Seas from 3 to 5 feet are expected to continue until early
Monday. Then, by Monday evening, a northerly swell will increase
seas up to 6 feet across the atlantic waters and local passages.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern coast of
puerto rico, including vieques and culebra and for the northern
coast of st. Thomas. The risk will increase to high for Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 79 88 76 87 40 40 30 50
stt 78 86 77 86 30 30 20 40

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Gl
long term... .Gl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.