Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pole Ojea, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:57 AM CST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 12:48AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PR
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location: -39.86, -75.19     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 150148
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
948 pm ast Wed nov 14 2018

Update Tropical wave will continue to exit the region overnight
but a fairly moist southeasterly wind flow will prevail. This along
with the upper level trough which continued to slowly lift west
and north of the region will favor unstable conditions and result
in periods of showers and thunderstorms activity across the local
waters and portions of the islands through the morning hours.

Soil remain very saturated across the islands, and rivers and
small streams across much of puerto rico remain at high levels,
although some continue to slowly recede. However, any additional
heavy rainfall will only aggravate the situation and lead to rapid
river rises and urban and small stream flooding as well as minor
flooding in poor drainage areas. Mudslide and rockfall will also
remain a problem in areas of steep terrain due to the loose and
unstable soil. For this reason the flash flood watch will remain
in effect at least until Thursday. No changes made to the inherited
short term forecast package at this time.

Aviation update PrevailingVFR at local terminals but brief
MVFR en route btw local islands and psbl at tjsj tist tisx tncm tkpk
due to shra isold tsra til 15 12z. Mtn top obscr ovr ERN pr til
15 12z due to shra low cig. Sct-bkn lyrs nr fl025... Fl040... Fl100.

Isold tops nr fl250. Sfc winds less than 10 kts bcmg 15-20 kts with
ocnl hir gusts aft 15 14z. Low level wnds fm SE 15-25 kts blo
fl200... Bcmg fm W and incr W ht abv fl300.

Marine update Recent data from the surrounding and offshore
buoys continued to suggest choppy and hazardous seas as a tropical
wave continued to exit the regional waters and surface high pressure
ridge builds north of the forecast area. Seas offshore and over local
passages were between 8-10 feet and nearshore between 2-7 feet with
winds from the east at 15-20 kts and occasionally higher gusts.

Small craft advisories will continue for most of the local waters
overnight through Thursday morning. Small craft operators should
exercise caution elsewhere.

Prev discussion issued 521 pm ast Wed nov 14 2018
synopsis... A moist east to southeast wind flow behind the
passage of a tropical wave will continue to interact with an
upper level low. This will continue to result in scattered to
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorm development across
the region through at least Thursday. A mid level ridge will
build from the northeast during the end of the week, while an
upper level low builds on top of the ridge during the weekend.

At lower levels, pulses of moisture will continue to stream from
the east across the islands.

Short term... Today through Friday...

showers and thunderstorms affected much of the region today. The
heaviest rainfall amounts were in and around the southern and eastern
interior sections of puerto rico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain was
observed in general. A rain gage in caguas reported 4.72 inches
since midnight. Rivers across the eastern interior sections of
puerto rico remain high. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected early this evening across sections of
eastern puerto rico, this activity can result in quick rises along
the area rivers as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain.

Across the u.S. Virgin islands, there is still the potential for
showers to move at times through the overnight hours.

Although rainfall activity on Thursday is not expected to be as
widespread as it was today... Any additional heavy rains over
already saturated soils will likely result in flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Therefore, the flash flood
watch continues in effect through at least Thursday afternoon for
puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands. On Friday, although a mid
level ridge will influence the local weather conditions, a pulse
of low level moisture on an east to southeast steering wind flow
will aid in the development of scattered to locally numerous with
possible thunderstorms over northwestern puerto rico.

Long term... Saturday through Tuesday... Issued 529 am ast Wed nov 14 2018
another upper level low tutt will approach the region from the
east. This feature is forecast to remain over the leeward islands
keeping the local area on the stable side of the trough during
the weekend. However, a moisture surge embedded in the easterly
trade winds will bring showers and a couple of thunderstorms at
times during the weekend.

By early next week... Mid level ridge will hold and dominate the
local weather conditions. This will strengthen the trade wind cap
favoring a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity. Under
this pattern, fresh trade winds will carry some showers over the
usvi and eastern pr in the morning followed by the typical
afternoon convection over western pr.

Aviation... Shra tsra are moving across most of the local terminal sites, this
activity is forecast to continue through 15 02z TAF period. Mvrf vrf
conds are being observed as a result of +shra tsra near or over the
terminal sites. Sfc winds are out of the east at 15 to 25 kts, then
winds turn to the south at 008 to 019 kft with winds ranging from 10
to 20 kts.

Marine... Choppy marine conditions will continue tonight through
Thursday as a result of a tropical wave and a surface high pressure
ridge building north of the region. Therefore a small craft
advisories will remain in effect for most of the local and outer
waterways. Seas will range from 6 to 8 feet with seas occasionally
reaching 10 feet and east to southeast winds of 15-20 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 75 88 76 87 50 40 40 60
stt 76 86 78 86 50 50 50 40

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for central
interior-culebra-north central-northeast-northwest-san juan
and vicinity-southeast-western interior.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for central
interior-culebra-eastern interior-mayaguez and vicinity-
north central-northeast-northwest-ponce and vicinity-san
juan and vicinity-southeast-southwest-vieques-western

Vi... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for st croix.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for st croix-
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 6 am ast Saturday for
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Am... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for coastal
waters of southern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for coastal waters
of southwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of
northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of southern
usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Saturday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-caribbean waters of puerto rico from 10 nm
to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 am ast Friday for coastal waters of
northern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 am ast Sunday for atlantic waters
of puerto rico and usvi from 10 nm to 19.5n.

Small craft advisory until 6 am ast Saturday for coastal waters
of northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Friday for mona passage
southward to 17n.

Short term... Ram
long term... .Ds

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.