Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pole Ojea, PR
April 30, 2024 11:42 AM CST (17:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 5:54 PM Moonrise 10:42 PM Moonset 1:14 PM |
Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 300823 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 423 AM AST Tue Apr 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken in the next few days. Expect breezy northeasterly winds through at least midweek. From mid-week onwards, instability and moisture levels increase once again as a mid to upper level trough lingers over the western Atlantic and lighter east to southeast winds return. Coastal and marine conditions will remain hazardous through at least late Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...
Breezy conditions and scattered to locally numerous showers prevailed overnight as the remnants of an old front moved through the region. Observed rainfall amounts were from half an inch in Quebradillas to one inch in Naguabo and less than a quarter of an inch across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Minimum temperatures were from the mid-to-upper 70s across coastal areas to the mid-60s across the higher elevations. Wind gusts were just over 30 mph across the northeast coast of PR and in St. Thomas.
A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken during the next few days as it moves slowly into the Central Atlantic. The last couple of soundings indicated the presence of drier air above 700 mb. However, the remnants of the front have kept a moist layer at the lower levels. Similar conditions to previous days are expected, with breezy winds, cloudiness, and passing showers across the islands throughout the day. Also, afternoon showers with possible isolated thunderstorms could develop over portions of the interior and southwestern PR.
A wetter and unstable pattern is still expected to evolve on Wednesday and Thursday as an upper-level trough approaches the area from the west, and an induced surface trough develops north of the region. In response, moisture pooling and lighter winds can be expected, further enhancing shower and thunderstorm development across the local area. The main impacts are urban and small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Steering winds are expected to shift further from the S/SW on Thursday, increasing the potential for showers across San Juan and its vicinity.
High temperatures will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s along the coastal and urban areas and from the mid-to-upper 70s along the mountains and valleys. Minimum temperatures will range from the mid and upper 70s across coastal areas to the mid-60s in the higher elevations.
LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...
The latest model guidance continues to suggest wet and unstable weather conditions even through the end of the workweek, not only for the island of Puerto Rico but also for the U.S. Virgin Islands. This pattern should prevail as an upper-level trough approaches the area from the west, and an induced surface trough develops north of the region enhancing additional rainfall activity and allowing it to be the dominant feature throughout the long-term period. On Friday, a mid to upper level, yet maxima, should move across the area with winds around 70 knots. This yet maxima will allow the trough to deepen, enhancing the unstable conditions. By the weekend, expect the Precipitable Water (PW) values to range above normal climatological levels for this of the year to above two standard deviations. We foresee active afternoons each day with the potential increase in the frequency of showers and isolated thunderstorms. As a side note, heat indices across the lower elevations of the islands could likely range between 102 and 106 degrees on Friday and Saturday before the onset of afternoon convection.
Overall, the main hazards from Friday into the beginning of the workweek are the increased risk of flooding across the islands and the risk of mudslides, particularly in areas of steep terrain in Puerto Rico. Therefore, we encourage citizens and visitors to be aware of any additional updates in the forecast.
AVIATION
(06z) TAFS
Remnants of a weak front producing sct SHRA with max tops at FL120 will continue to cause -SHRA and brief MVFR cigs at TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ at times. TSRA could develop near TJPS this afternoon, but mostly VCTS expected thru 22z. ENE winds at 13-18 kt with stronger gusts near 30 kt will continue through the period.
MARINE
A sub tropical high pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh trade winds through at least Wednesday night. As a result, expect hazardous seas for small craft operators due to confused seas associated with the increasing winds and a northeasterly swell spreading across the local waters.
BEACH FORECAST
A northerly swell and stronger winds are resulting in High Risk of Rip Currents across beaches from Mayaguez to Fajardo, Culebra, and USVI through at least late Wednesday. For more information and details about the latest forecast please refer to the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU).
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001.
High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Wednesday night for AMZ711-712.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ716.
Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ723-741-742.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ726.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 423 AM AST Tue Apr 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken in the next few days. Expect breezy northeasterly winds through at least midweek. From mid-week onwards, instability and moisture levels increase once again as a mid to upper level trough lingers over the western Atlantic and lighter east to southeast winds return. Coastal and marine conditions will remain hazardous through at least late Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...
Breezy conditions and scattered to locally numerous showers prevailed overnight as the remnants of an old front moved through the region. Observed rainfall amounts were from half an inch in Quebradillas to one inch in Naguabo and less than a quarter of an inch across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Minimum temperatures were from the mid-to-upper 70s across coastal areas to the mid-60s across the higher elevations. Wind gusts were just over 30 mph across the northeast coast of PR and in St. Thomas.
A broad surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken during the next few days as it moves slowly into the Central Atlantic. The last couple of soundings indicated the presence of drier air above 700 mb. However, the remnants of the front have kept a moist layer at the lower levels. Similar conditions to previous days are expected, with breezy winds, cloudiness, and passing showers across the islands throughout the day. Also, afternoon showers with possible isolated thunderstorms could develop over portions of the interior and southwestern PR.
A wetter and unstable pattern is still expected to evolve on Wednesday and Thursday as an upper-level trough approaches the area from the west, and an induced surface trough develops north of the region. In response, moisture pooling and lighter winds can be expected, further enhancing shower and thunderstorm development across the local area. The main impacts are urban and small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Steering winds are expected to shift further from the S/SW on Thursday, increasing the potential for showers across San Juan and its vicinity.
High temperatures will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s along the coastal and urban areas and from the mid-to-upper 70s along the mountains and valleys. Minimum temperatures will range from the mid and upper 70s across coastal areas to the mid-60s in the higher elevations.
LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...
The latest model guidance continues to suggest wet and unstable weather conditions even through the end of the workweek, not only for the island of Puerto Rico but also for the U.S. Virgin Islands. This pattern should prevail as an upper-level trough approaches the area from the west, and an induced surface trough develops north of the region enhancing additional rainfall activity and allowing it to be the dominant feature throughout the long-term period. On Friday, a mid to upper level, yet maxima, should move across the area with winds around 70 knots. This yet maxima will allow the trough to deepen, enhancing the unstable conditions. By the weekend, expect the Precipitable Water (PW) values to range above normal climatological levels for this of the year to above two standard deviations. We foresee active afternoons each day with the potential increase in the frequency of showers and isolated thunderstorms. As a side note, heat indices across the lower elevations of the islands could likely range between 102 and 106 degrees on Friday and Saturday before the onset of afternoon convection.
Overall, the main hazards from Friday into the beginning of the workweek are the increased risk of flooding across the islands and the risk of mudslides, particularly in areas of steep terrain in Puerto Rico. Therefore, we encourage citizens and visitors to be aware of any additional updates in the forecast.
AVIATION
(06z) TAFS
Remnants of a weak front producing sct SHRA with max tops at FL120 will continue to cause -SHRA and brief MVFR cigs at TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ at times. TSRA could develop near TJPS this afternoon, but mostly VCTS expected thru 22z. ENE winds at 13-18 kt with stronger gusts near 30 kt will continue through the period.
MARINE
A sub tropical high pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh trade winds through at least Wednesday night. As a result, expect hazardous seas for small craft operators due to confused seas associated with the increasing winds and a northeasterly swell spreading across the local waters.
BEACH FORECAST
A northerly swell and stronger winds are resulting in High Risk of Rip Currents across beaches from Mayaguez to Fajardo, Culebra, and USVI through at least late Wednesday. For more information and details about the latest forecast please refer to the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU).
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001.
High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Wednesday night for AMZ711-712.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ716.
Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ723-741-742.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ726.
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