Monday, December17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pole Ojea, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 5:22PM Monday December 17, 2018 10:22 AM CST (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pole Ojea, PR
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location: -39.86, -75.19     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 171515
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1115 am ast Mon dec 17 2018

Update
Mostly sunny skies and fair weather conditions will prevail across
the region today with limited or no shower activity expected in
and around the islands. Mid to upper level ridge will hold across
the region although slightly erode today as a short wave trough
will move across the west atlantic and north of the region. Upper
ridge is to build once again across the region by mid week to
maintain stable conditions aloft and limit convective development.

Surface high pressure located over the central atlantic will shift
into the eastern atlantic during the next few days, as a cold front
moves over the western atlantic and stalls well north of the region
by midweek. This will cause winds to diminish through at least Wednesday
night. Winds will again increase during the latter part of the week
as another surface high pressure builds over the western atlantic bringing
breezy conditions to the region. No change made to the inherited forecast
package and reasoning at this time. Mostly fair weather skies and overall
dry and stable conditions will prevail except for the occasional periods
of passing clouds and trade wind showers especially during the late
evening and early morning hours.

Aviation update Vfr conds durg entire prd. No change to
previous avn discussion.

Marine update Winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish
and subside during the rest of today and Tuesday. However, still
a slight chop over most of the offshore atlantic waters and
anegada passage today, therefore small craft operators should
exercise caution at least until later this afternoon. No change
to previous marine discussion.

Prev discussion issued 458 am ast Mon dec 17 2018
synopsis... Ridge aloft will keep a dry air mass over the region
throught the week. This will promote fair weather conditions
across puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands. No significant
rainfall is expected during the next several days. Winds will
diminish through mid week as a frontal boundary stalls north of
the region and a surface high over the central atlantic moves
further east. Another surface high behind the front will increase
winds once again during the second part of the week.

Short term... Today through Wednesday...

a dry and stable air mass is expected to prevail across the forecast
area today and Tuesday. Precipitable water values are expected to
range between 0.80 and 1.00 inches, which would be near 2 standard
deviations below normal for this time of the year. In addition,
relative humidity values between the 850 and 700 mb layer are
expected to be below 50%. These two factors alone suggest that the
environment will be very hostile for shower development. Therefore,
most areas across the region should experience rain-free conditions.

If any showers do manage to develop, the area that would most likely
see some activity would be across northwest pr during the afternoon
hours due to sea breeze influence and diurnal heating. Either way,
with the very dry air mass in place, any showers that do manage to
develop should be brief and lead to very light accumulations.

On Wednesday, a patch of low-level moisture embedded within the
trade wind flow is set to move over the region. Therefore, an
increase in shower activity is possible. However, given that the
synoptic pattern continues to feature a mid to upper-level ridge
maintaining the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere very dry, any
showers that do develop should be brief and lead to minor rainfall
accumulations.

Long term... Thursday through Monday...

an upper level ridge will continue to dominate the region through
the long term period. Another drier air mass is expected to move
from the east on Thursday and linger through Saturday morning,
keeping moisture below 850 mb. This will limit shower activity
across the islands. Moisture increases to 700 mb on Saturday
afternoon and continues through early next week. A return to light
passing showers across the usvi and eastern pr during the night
time and early morning hours, followed by diurnally induced
afternoon showers over western pr can be expected during this
period. However, no significant rainfall accumulations are
expected at the moment.

Aviation...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
terminals throughout the forecast period. A few shra may affect
tjbq and tjmz terminals after 17 16z. Low-level winds will be
mainly from the SE between 10 and 15 knots with sea breeze
variations developing after 17 14z.

Marine... Small crafts should exercise caution today due to seas
up to 6 feet across the atlantic waters and caribbean passages.

East to southeast winds will prevail between 10-15 kt. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish through Wednesday. A long period
northerly swell is expected to enter the atlantic waters during
the end of the work week. A surface high pressure will increase
winds once again on Thursday.

There is a risk o rip currents for the northern beaches of puerto
rico and culebra today due to a fading northerly swell.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 86 73 85 74 10 0 0 20
stt 87 72 87 74 10 0 10 20

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk until 6 pm ast this evening for culebra-
north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and vicinity-
southeast-western interior.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ram
long term... .Ram


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.