Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pole Ojea, PR
May 19, 2024 3:54 AM CST (09:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:16 AM Sunset 5:57 PM Moonrise 2:48 PM Moonset 3:03 AM |
FXCA62 TJSJ 190814 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 414 AM AST Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
For the rest of the weekend, the heat and the haze continue under a generally southeast surface flow. A wet, unstable weather pattern is expected through the second half of the week as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin. Tranquil marine conditions will prevail throughout the next few days. The risk of rip currents is low.
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...
A few showers managed to reach eastern Puerto Rico early in the morning, while an isolated thunderstorm was observed across the waters far away from land. The day will be similar to yesterday.
First of al, a high pressure over the eastern Atlantic maintains light trade winds from the southeast at the surface, with a more southerly component from 900 to 600 mb. This will maintain temperatures above normal, so hot conditions will prevail for the next several days. In fact, heat indices are expected to surpass 102 degrees across most of the coastal and urban areas in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands. The aerosol models show low concentrations of Saharan dust too, hence hazy skies are anticipated.
Additionally, a pocket of enhanced moisture should reach the islands today too, increasing the frequency of showers a little. However, the heaviest activity is anticipated for the interior, north-central and northwest, where showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to fire up later this afternoon. The risk for urban and small stream flooding is elevated.
For the rest of the week, the heat and the haze continue under a generally southeast surface flow. The wind flow does gain a southwesterly component at the mid levels in response of a deep- layered trough that will develop in the western Caribbean. The afternoon activity should develop again in the interior and northwest, but as the showers gain more altitude, they may move closer to the San Juan metro area.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...
A wet, unstable weather pattern is expected through the second half of the week as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin to then form a surface low in the western Atlantic by the weekend. The surface induced trough that is projected to form south of Hispanola on Wednesday night will cause an acceleration of the surface winds along with a rapid increase of moisture sourced from the ITCZ as the airmass moves northward in the eastern Caribbean. Winds will continue to veer towards a southerly direction by the end of the week as the low strengthens to the northwest of the area. Throughout this time the proximity of the low's mid to upper-level jet will maintain strong winds aloft which will increase the chance of thunderstorm activity as ventilation is enhanced. Conditions seem to calm through the weekend as this system moves further from the local area, however light surface wind flow and abundant moisture will allow diurnal heating and local effects to bring heavy rainfall during the afternoon hours.
Due to all of this, Wednesday through the weekend will consist of periods of heavy rainfall for mostly all of Puerto Rico and the USVI. Flash flooding due to continuous rainfall is possible through this event also strong thunderstorms are also likely to occur. Stay tuned for further updates as we approach these days.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA and isolated TSRA will move across the Caribbean waters, and could reach the USVI and TJSJ terminals at times. After 17Z, additional development expected, for the Cordillera Central and around TJBQ, where periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are possible. Winds will from the SE at 8-13 kts, with stronger wind gusts and sea breezes variations.
MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in moderate easterly winds through the rest of the weekend.
Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-011.
VI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 414 AM AST Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
For the rest of the weekend, the heat and the haze continue under a generally southeast surface flow. A wet, unstable weather pattern is expected through the second half of the week as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin. Tranquil marine conditions will prevail throughout the next few days. The risk of rip currents is low.
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...
A few showers managed to reach eastern Puerto Rico early in the morning, while an isolated thunderstorm was observed across the waters far away from land. The day will be similar to yesterday.
First of al, a high pressure over the eastern Atlantic maintains light trade winds from the southeast at the surface, with a more southerly component from 900 to 600 mb. This will maintain temperatures above normal, so hot conditions will prevail for the next several days. In fact, heat indices are expected to surpass 102 degrees across most of the coastal and urban areas in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands. The aerosol models show low concentrations of Saharan dust too, hence hazy skies are anticipated.
Additionally, a pocket of enhanced moisture should reach the islands today too, increasing the frequency of showers a little. However, the heaviest activity is anticipated for the interior, north-central and northwest, where showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to fire up later this afternoon. The risk for urban and small stream flooding is elevated.
For the rest of the week, the heat and the haze continue under a generally southeast surface flow. The wind flow does gain a southwesterly component at the mid levels in response of a deep- layered trough that will develop in the western Caribbean. The afternoon activity should develop again in the interior and northwest, but as the showers gain more altitude, they may move closer to the San Juan metro area.
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...
A wet, unstable weather pattern is expected through the second half of the week as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin to then form a surface low in the western Atlantic by the weekend. The surface induced trough that is projected to form south of Hispanola on Wednesday night will cause an acceleration of the surface winds along with a rapid increase of moisture sourced from the ITCZ as the airmass moves northward in the eastern Caribbean. Winds will continue to veer towards a southerly direction by the end of the week as the low strengthens to the northwest of the area. Throughout this time the proximity of the low's mid to upper-level jet will maintain strong winds aloft which will increase the chance of thunderstorm activity as ventilation is enhanced. Conditions seem to calm through the weekend as this system moves further from the local area, however light surface wind flow and abundant moisture will allow diurnal heating and local effects to bring heavy rainfall during the afternoon hours.
Due to all of this, Wednesday through the weekend will consist of periods of heavy rainfall for mostly all of Puerto Rico and the USVI. Flash flooding due to continuous rainfall is possible through this event also strong thunderstorms are also likely to occur. Stay tuned for further updates as we approach these days.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA and isolated TSRA will move across the Caribbean waters, and could reach the USVI and TJSJ terminals at times. After 17Z, additional development expected, for the Cordillera Central and around TJBQ, where periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are possible. Winds will from the SE at 8-13 kts, with stronger wind gusts and sea breezes variations.
MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in moderate easterly winds through the rest of the weekend.
Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-011.
VI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.
AM...None.
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Virgin,Islands/San,Juan/Cayey,PR
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