Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Jobos, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:48PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:30 PM AST (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 6:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1137 Am Ast Sat Nov 18 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the night. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 1137 Am Ast Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A frontal boundary and associated moisture will continue to linger across the local atlantic waters through the weekend to result in southerly winds and showers with Thunderstorms at times. A northerly swell is forecast to reach the atlantic waters through tonight. Easterly winds and a more stable air mass is expected across the local waters the next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jobos, PR
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location: 17.93, -66.16     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 181614
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1214 pm ast Sat nov 18 2017

Unsettled weather conditions will continue over the u.S. Virgin
islands and puerto rico through the rest of the weekend. Although
most of the islands are expected to receive rainfall activity, the
strongest activity is forecast mainly across the u.S. Virgin
islands, the southern and eastern sections of puerto rico as well
as across the san juan metro area. A more stable atmosphere is
forecast for the upcoming week.

Shra tsra will continue across the flying area through the
overnight hours. Vcsh vcts across the local terminals with tempo
MVFR conds at tjsj tist tjps tisx. Bkn ovc are likely and will be
mainly above fl050 but in near shra tsra could be near fl030.

Also, this activity could decrease vis at less than 4mi. Surface
winds will continue from the SW at 6 to 12 kt but gusty and vrb
near tsra.

A northerly swell is moving across the atlantic waters and
caribbean passages. Mariners can expect seas at 5 feet or less and
winds at less than 18 knots, but locally higher in and near shower
and thunderstorm activity.

Prev discussion issued 445 am ast Sat nov 18 2017
synopsis... A frontal boundary is expected to remain very close
to the region through the weekend to result in periods of showers
and thunderstorms. A mainly fair and stable weather pattern is
expected the upcoming week as a mid to upper level ridge builds
across the area.

Short term... Today through Monday...

as the frontal boundary continues very close to our local area to
the west, we will continue to be in the moist side of it. This means
that higher than normal moisture continues to be expected for today
and Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms under mostly cloudy skies are
expected across much of the local area. Showers and thunderstorms
have been observed all morning across the local waters and recently
some of them made their way into western pr, producing moderate to
heavy rainfall. The western sections of pr and the local waters are
expected to observe persistent rain through today with rainfall
activity gradually developing into eastern pr by the afternoon
hours. For that reason we have scattered to numerous showers with
isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for today and also on Sunday.

There is some disagreement amongst the high resolution guidance. The
wrf model is rather bullish on the amount of rainfall across puerto
rico today, which if it were to verify, we would have a very active
day. The nmm model, which performed beautifully yesterday, is much
less rainy but still shows some areas with significant rain. So we
decided to lean more on the nmm model since the WRF did terrible
yesterday and the nmm performed better, having said that, the truth
is that there is a real possibility for a very rainy day today and
that is why we decided to lean a bit more to the drier nmm model but
not as dry as the guidance was suggesting. There is a good chance
for urban and small stream flooding across many areas in puerto rico
today and on Sunday.

Weather is expected to start to improve on Monday, with most of the
significant rainfall staying across the local waters.

Long term... Tuesday through Sunday...

as a mid to upper level ridge strengthens across the forecast area
early the next work week, available moisture will quickly erode
with precipitable water values remaining near the normal range
through the forecast period. Under the ridge aloft and easterly
winds bringing those patches of low level moisture at times, expect
mainly fair and stable weather condition much of the next work
week with trade wind showers across usvi and E pr as well as some
locally induced afternoon showers across west areas of puerto rico
each day. Seasonable temperatures are also expected as easterly
winds will return to the area.

Aviation... Shra tsra expected to continue across the local area
today, causing vcsh vcts across the local terminals with tempo MVFR
conds possible at tjbq and tjmz since early in the morning. Cigs
will be mainly above fl120 before 18 16z... Except for tjbq and tjmz
which already have lower cigs... But for the rest of the terminals,
cigs are expected at fl050 and at times close to fl030 with
shra tsra. Winds will be mainly southwesterly, occasionally
westerly, generally at 10kt or less but gusty near tsra.

Marine... Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasionally seas up to 6 feet are
expected across the atlantic waters due to small northerly swell.

Elsewhere seas of 2 to 4 feet. Southerly winds around 10 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 87 78 86 77 70 50 50 30
stt 85 78 86 78 80 40 40 40

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... Flash flood watch until 2 pm ast this afternoon for northwest-
western interior.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Cam
long term... .99

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 4 mi105 min ESE 2.9 80°F 1009 hPa75°F
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 20 mi90 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 83°F 83°F1007.7 hPa (-2.4)
41053 - San Juan, PR 38 mi60 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 1007.1 hPa
41056 44 mi90 min S 9.7 G 14 79°F 3 ft1008.1 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Yabucoa Harbor, PR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3E1N2N1----------------------CalmCalmE2S2S4S5S6S6S8
1 day agoSW3SW31E2----------------------SW52S2NE1W2W3S3E2S6
2 days agoNE2SE2SE4------------------------NE2NE3E3S8

Tide / Current Tables for Las Mareas, Puerto Rico
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Las Mareas
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Sat -- 12:14 AM AST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM AST     New Moon
Sat -- 10:25 AM AST     0.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:47 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Arroyo, Puerto Rico
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Sat -- 06:31 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:31 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM AST     New Moon
Sat -- 11:48 AM AST     0.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:20 PM AST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:44 PM AST     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:52 PM AST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.