Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 6:52 PM Moonrise 2:09 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM

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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 508 Am Ast Fri May 17 2024
Today - East winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds. Isolated showers. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Sunday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Tuesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

AMZ700 508 Am Ast Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure across the central and northeast atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds through the weekend. Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated Thunderstorms could move from western puerto rico into the coastal waters each day.

FXCA62 TJSJ 170854 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 454 AM AST Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure spread across the central and northeast Atlantic will maintain a light easterly wind flow becoming more southeasterly later today an over the weekend. Passing showers will continue across the local waters and reach portions of the north and east coastal areas during the rest of the morning hours. Afternoon showers will likely develop across the central interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Mostly sunny and fair weather skies are forecast elsewhere but few showers cannot be ruled out around the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend but with another round of Saharan dust forecast to spread across the region. The potential for afternoon shower development will however continue in isolated areas each day.

SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday

Calm weather conditions prevailed during the night and early morning hours. Doppler radar showed a few passing showers affecting the local waters and streaming across the southeastern sections of Puerto Rico, with most showers occurring from Patillas to Maunabo.
Since the shower activity was relatively shallow, rainfall accumulations remained insignificant. Overnight temperatures were a little warmer, especially across the coastal areas, ranging in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and mid-70s across the mountains.

The short-term forecast remains on track. The interaction between two surface high pressures, one in the central Atlantic and the other over the western Atlantic, will continue to maintain a southeasterly wind flow across the islands. As a result, patches of tropical moisture will reach the islands daily. Although instability will slightly increase as an upper-level trough moves eastward into the area, the islands can expect an increase in afternoon shower coverage today. According to high-resolution models and the NMB model, the bulk of the showers today should be across the northwestern sections of Puerto Rico and some interior areas.
Additionally, the southeasterly wind flow, combined with clear skies and high water content, will increase heat index values, especially across the northern-central coastal areas and most urban and coastal regions. Residents and visitors can expect warm conditions with high chances of precipitation.

According to recent model guidelines, the high-resolution model continues to show increased shower activity for Saturday into Sunday. As suggested yesterday, this pattern will mainly be driven by the favorable side of an upper-level trough moving into the region, positioning a zonal flow over the area. This instability and the available moisture will enhance periods of strong showers during the afternoon each day. Additionally, according to the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model V5, a significant pulse of Saharan Air Layer will filter into the region, resulting in hazy skies across the islands. Given the expected conditions, the bulk of the showers should remain localized across the northwestern quadrant and the San Juan metro area, slightly limited by the presence of Saharan Dust on Sunday. A weakness in the pressure gradient will result in lighter to moderate winds, affecting the movement of afternoon showers.
Therefore, the island can experience minor flooding in urban areas, including small streams and arroyos.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

Surface high pressure system extending from the central and northeast Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region during the initial phase of the period. These winds will aid in transporting patches of tropical moisture to the region, and therefore increase the likelihood of shower development over land areas particularly during the afternoon hours. Shower development should be focused across portions of the interior and west to northwest sections of Puerto Rico as well as in isolated areas in the San Juan metro.
Mostly sunny skies and hot an humid conditions will persist through Monday. As a result these conditions will increasing maximum heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat especially for the northern coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands including the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Recent model guidance although there is some discrepancy between the them both point toward an increasing moist and unstable weather pattern with increased low level moisture convergence and instability aloft for most of the period. The GFS model guidance continued to be the most aggressive and suggests a wetter pattern during the period. It has so far initialized well with the present and ongoing pattern and continued to suggest the formation of a deep layered trough forecast to deepen and move across the western Atlantic while becoming amplified west of the region while moving eastward. So far the strongest divergence and most favorable side of the trough and its associated jet max should reach the forecast area by Tuesday and continue to affect the region through Thursday and Friday. With increasing instability along with cooler advective temperatures aloft and abundant tropical moisture convergence, the forecast layered precipitable water (PWAT) values are still expected to exceed 2 inches during the latter part of the period. Consequently, this wet and unstable period is forecast for the region, with the moderate to high probability of showers and thunderstorm development with areas of widespread rains likely, especially during the overnight and afternoon hours. The anticipated period of excessive and heavy rainfall will therefore increase the risk of urban and river flooding especially from Tuesday onwards with the most favorable impacts being Wednesday through Thursday but activity could continue thorough the end of the work week. Stay tuned and be prepared, as we will continue to monitor how this pattern unfolds and make the necessary adjustments to the long term forecast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites during the period.
Winds will increase by 16/15Z from the E-SE at 15 knots, with sea breeze variations. SHRA and VCTS are forecasted for the mountain areas, resulting in lower ceilings and VCTS and SHRA across TJPS and TJBQ. Winds will decrease by 17/23Z, becoming variable with land breeze variations.

MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in light to moderate east to southeast through the weekend. Overall, tranquil marine conditions are forecast throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop and move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.

BEACH FORECAST
There is a low rip current risk today across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The risk will likely remain low through the weekend. However, life-threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. In addition, with possible maximum heat indices between 102-107 degrees or higher, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be likely with prolonged exposure. Stay hydrated!



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ005.

VI...None.
AM...None.

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