Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 6:55 PM Moonrise 2:11 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM

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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 403 Pm Ast Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Isolated showers until early morning, then scattered showers late. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Saturday night - East winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Tuesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wednesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 403 Pm Ast Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure across the central and northeast atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds through the weekend. Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated Thunderstorms could move from western puerto rico into the coastal waters each day.

FXCA62 TJSJ 172015 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 415 PM AST Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS

Hazy skies due to suspended Saharan dust and hot weather conditions are expected through the weekend. However, shower development is also anticipated each afternoon across western portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the local islands. A wet and unstable weather pattern continues to be expected by midweek of next week as a deep- layered trough approaches from the west and combines with tropical moisture.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday

In the early afternoon, a streamer downwind of El Yunque developed, bringing moderate to heavy showers that briefly affected portions of Canovanas and Carolina. Later, convective activity emerged over the interior and western/northwestern regions of Puerto Rico. This activity was caused by marginal instability aloft, resulting from a weak mid-level trough combined with diurnal heating and sufficient low-level moisture. As the heating effects subside, the activity should diminish by this evening. Hot weather conditions prevailed today as well, with heat index values reaching above 105°F across coastal and urban areas of the local islands.

A similar weather pattern is expected through early in the weekend as the weak mid-level trough persists over the local area under an east-southeast steering wind flow. However, dry air intrusion at mid-to upper levels will limit the areal coverage of convective activity. The moisture content at lower levels will vary between 1.5 and 1.7 inches throughout the forecast period, remaining within the 50th and 75th percentiles of typical climatological levels, or adhering to seasonal norms.

Hi-res models do indicate more shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday as cold air advection at 500 mb cools temperatures to almost -7 degrees Celsius. Therefore, Saturday will be the wettest day of the short-term forecast, but activity will develop in a typical manner, with moisture content combining with sea breeze convergence and surface heating during the afternoon hours.
Therefore, showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the interior and western/northwestern regions of Puerto Rico.
Streamers downwind of El Yunque into the San Juan metro area and downwind of the smaller islands cannot be ruled out. A limited to elevated flooding threat will prevail in those areas with the heaviest showers. Sunday looks more stable as the weak mid-level trough erodes and is replaced by ridging aloft. Still, some isolated showers can develop in localized areas, particularly during the afternoon hours.

Hazy skies and hot weather conditions will persist as a wide area of suspended Saharan dust particulates continues to be advected over the local area, while southeasterly winds continue to bring warmer temperatures into the northeastern Caribbean. Heat advisories may be necessary each day, particularly across the coastal and urban areas.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 454 AM AST Fri May 17 2024/

Surface high pressure system extending from the central and northeast Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region during the initial phase of the period. These winds will aid in transporting patches of tropical moisture to the region, and therefore increase the likelihood of shower development over land areas particularly during the afternoon hours. Shower development should be focused across portions of the interior and west to northwest sections of Puerto Rico as well as in isolated areas in the San Juan metro.
Mostly sunny skies and hot an humid conditions will persist through Monday. As a result these conditions will increasing maximum heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat especially for the northern coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands including the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Recent model guidance although there is some discrepancy between the them both point toward an increasing moist and unstable weather pattern with increased low level moisture convergence and instability aloft for most of the period. The GFS model guidance continued to be the most aggressive and suggests a wetter pattern during the period. It has so far initialized well with the present and ongoing pattern and continued to suggest the formation of a deep layered trough forecast to deepen and move across the western Atlantic while becoming amplified west of the region while moving eastward. So far the strongest divergence and most favorable side of the trough and its associated jet max should reach the forecast area by Tuesday and continue to affect the region through Thursday and Friday. With increasing instability along with cooler advective temperatures aloft and abundant tropical moisture convergence, the forecast layered precipitable water (PWAT) values are still expected to exceed 2 inches during the latter part of the period. Consequently, this wet and unstable period is forecast for the region, with the moderate to high probability of showers and thunderstorm development with areas of widespread rains likely, especially during the overnight and afternoon hours. The anticipated period of excessive and heavy rainfall will therefore increase the risk of urban and river flooding especially from Tuesday onwards with the most favorable impacts being Wednesday through Thursday but activity could continue thorough the end of the work week. Stay tuned and be prepared, as we will continue to monitor how this pattern unfolds and make the necessary adjustments to the long term forecast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA/TSRA in and around TJBQ may cause tempo MVFR conditions thru 17/23z. Low-level winds will continue from the east-southeast at 10 kt or less, lighter land breeze variations expected overnight.

MARINE

A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in light to moderate east to southeast through the weekend. Overall, tranquil marine conditions are forecast throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop and move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.

BEACH FORECAST

There is a low rip current risk the rest of today across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The risk will likely remain low through the weekend. However, life-threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. In addition, with possible maximum heat indices between 102-107 degrees or higher, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be likely with prolonged exposure. Stay hydrated!

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ005.

VI...None.

AM...None.

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Guánica
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Fri -- 02:08 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:34 AM AST     0.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM AST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:11 PM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:03 PM AST     0.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:54 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM AST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guanica, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Playa de Ponce
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Fri -- 02:07 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:17 AM AST     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM AST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 PM AST     0.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:52 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:12 PM AST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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