Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tallaboa, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:52PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 3:10 AM AST (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:33AMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 919 Pm Ast Mon Nov 12 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Southeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Southeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 919 Pm Ast Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure moving over the western atlantic and an approaching tropical wave will result in an increase in winds and seas during the next few days. Shower and Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across the regional waters with the passage of the tropical wave. Hazardous seas are expected through the end of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tallaboa, PR
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location: 17.98, -66.76     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 130156
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
956 pm ast Mon nov 12 2018

Update A tropical wave just east of the leeward islands is
interacting with an upper level trough and this is resulting in
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the atlantic
waters. Under a northeast steering wind flow tonight, some of this
activity will move at times across the atlantic waters and over
portions of the islands. However, the bulk of the moisture
associated to the wave is forecast to move over the region between
late Tuesday night and through Wednesday. Breezy conditions are
expected tomorrow and on Wednesday with the passage of the wave.

Aviation MainlyVFR conds expected through at least 13 15z
across the local terminals. Shra tsra possible overnight btw the
leeward islands and the northern usvi terminals, this could cause
tempo MVFR cigs. Tsra possible btw 13 16z-22z across the interior
and western sections of pr, impacting mainly tjps tjmz. Latest
13 00z tjsj upper air sounding indicated east to northeast winds
at 8-24 kt blo fl120.

Marine Wind driven seas are expected to create hazardous marine
conditions for the next few days across the regional waters. Seas
should range in general between 6-8 feet and breezy trades between
15-25 kt with higher gusts are expected through midweek with the
passing of a tropical wave, currently located just east of the
leeward islands.

Prev discussion issued 456 pm ast Mon nov 12 2018
synopsis... The presence of abundant low level moisture with
favorable upper level dynamics will aid in the development of
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area
through the evening hours. Overnight and early morning showers
are expected to stream over the atlantic waters into coastal areas
of northern and eastern puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands.

This will be followed by afternoon convection over the local
islands on Tuesday. An approaching tropical wave will deteriorate
both weather and marine conditions starting late Tuesday night.

This weather pattern is expected to continue throughout the
workweek.

Short term... Tonight through Wednesday...

showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop and
drift west-southwestward over portions of the interior and
southwestern puerto rico, as well as downwind from EL yunque and
the local islands. This activity is expected to dissipate at
around or before sunset. In addition, showers are forecast to
continue streaming over the atlantic waters and move over coastal
areas of puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands through the
overnight and early morning hours. The afternoon weather pattern
will be similar to today's weather pattern, influenced by local
and diurnal effects under a west southwestward wind flow.

The national hurricane center continues to monitor a tropical
wave located about 200 miles east of the leeward islands, that is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance has now a 50 and 90 percent formation chance through
the next 48 hours and 5 days, respectively. So far, this system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next
several days. However, unfavorable environmental conditions and
land interaction will inhibit tropical cyclone formation before it
reaches the local area. Regardless of the evolution of this
system, model guidance continues to depict a wetter weather
pattern across the forecast area by late Tuesday night into
Thursday. Significant rainfall accumulations, gusty wind
conditions and hazardous marine conditions are expected as the
main impacts from this system as it moves across the forecast
area.

Long term... Thursday through Monday... Issued 504 am ast Mon nov
12 2018...

the active aforementioned tropical wave located east of the
lesser antilles is still forecast to develop and move north of the
islands by Thursday based on the most recent guidance from the
national hurricane center. There is a slight toss up between both
gfs and ECMWF model guidance about how much this system develops,
but so far the GFS has initialized fairly well based on present
weather pattern and the location of this feature. Most recent
guidance from the national hurricane center this feature suggests
a 70 percent chance of development in the next 5 days. Regardless
of how much this active wave develops during the next few days,
expect a much wetter and unstable weather pattern for the forecast
areas through at least Thursday or early Friday, as the deep
layered trough pattern is to develop and linger across the region
through the end of the work week. This expected scenario will
provide favorable upper level support with good divergence aloft
and extensive pooling of moisture and low level convergence due to
a moist and dominant southeasterly wind flow, forecast to
continue through the end of the week.

By Saturday and through the early part of the following week, a
mid to upper level ridge is then forecast to build across the
region once again. This change in the overall pattern will aid in
cutting off and suppressing widespread convective development. In
addition, the atlantic surface high pressure ridge is to build
north of the region and thus tighten the local pressure gradient.

This will lead to increasing easterly trade winds. By then,
periods of showers and thunderstorm activity if any, should be
limited to the overnight and early morning hours, followed by a
more typical limited afternoon convection each day. Somewhat
breezier conditions will also be possible during the latter part
of the period, therefore daytime afternoon shower activity may be
in the form of streamers and quick passing.

Aviation...VFR conds are prevailing across all terminal sites
with easterly winds of 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts up to 30 kts.

Shra iso tsra have started to develop over portions of eastern,
interior and western areas of puerto rico, and are affecting
terminals tjsj, tjmz and tjbq. This activity is expected to linger
until 12 23z. Sfc winds out of the east at 10 to 15 kts, then
winds turn to the north at 21 to 29 kft with winds ranging from 30
to 50 kts.

Marine... Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate this
evening through the rest of the work week with seas forecast to
increase to up to 8 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet. First across
the local outer atlantic and caribbean waters, as well as the
local passages. Then, spreading into coastal waters and mona
passage including portions of the outer caribbean waters later in
the week. Precautionary statements and small craft advisories
will therefore be in effect for most of the local waters starting
this evening and through most of the work week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 78 86 77 89 50 60 60 70
stt 78 88 78 87 50 60 60 70

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through Tuesday afternoon for culebra-
north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and vicinity-
southeast-western interior.

High rip current risk from 6 am ast Tuesday through Tuesday
afternoon for vieques.

Vi... High rip current risk through Tuesday afternoon for st croix-
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Am... Small craft advisory until 6 pm ast Tuesday for caribbean waters
of puerto rico from 10 nm to 17n.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 pm ast Wednesday for
coastal waters of northern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm ast Saturday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-atlantic waters of puerto rico and usvi
from 10 nm to 19.5n.

Small craft advisory until 6 am ast Thursday for coastal waters
of northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am ast Wednesday for
coastal waters of northwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-mona
passage southward to 17n.

Ds icp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 15 mi41 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 84°F1013.3 hPa
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 15 mi71 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 84°F 83°F3 ft1012 hPa (-1.1)
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 27 mi41 min 78°F 84°F1013.6 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 29 mi86 min NE 2.9 1015 hPa
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 35 mi41 min SE 5.1 G 6
PTRP4 37 mi26 min ENE 7 G 11 77°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 39 mi41 min 84°F4 ft
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 48 mi41 min E 16 G 19 81°F 83°F1013.9 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 49 mi41 min 80°F 74°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 49 mi41 min E 18 G 21 82°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------E5NE5NE5--Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Guanica, Puerto Rico
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Guánica
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Tue -- 03:27 AM AST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:00 PM AST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:00 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.20.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.50.60.70.70.80.80.80.70.70.70.70.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Ponce
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Tue -- 02:56 AM AST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:43 PM AST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:59 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.