Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Culebra, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:43PM Friday November 16, 2018 12:45 PM AST (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1006 Am Ast Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Numerous showers.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 1006 Am Ast Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Surface high pressure over the central atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds during the next few days. A wind surge will enhance moisture transport across the local area today and Saturday, resulting in additional showers affecting the local waters. These brisk trade winds will maintain hazardous marine conditions through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Culebra, PR
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location: 18.02, -64.67     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 161538
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1138 am ast Fri nov 16 2018

Update
Minor changes were made to adjust the forecast with the expected
weather conditions. A wind surge will bring showers across the
islands today. The doppler radar detected showers across the
surrounding waters of the u.S. Virgin islands and across eastern
puerto rico. Rainfall accumulations across the virgin isles were
minimal. However, showers are spreading westward across mainland
puerto rico and are expected to increase in frequency and
intensity across the interior and northwest puerto rico during the
afternoon. Any additional heavy rains over already saturated
soils will likely result in urban and small stream flooding, flash
flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain today across
puerto rico.

Activity is expected to diminish overnight, leaving mostly clear
skies with little to no shower activity. By Saturday afternoon,
another surge of moisture will aid in afternoon convection across
west puerto rico.

Aviation
Shra will affect pr usvi-taf sites at times through this evening.

Shra should diminish across usvi terminals by mid-afternoon.

Mount obsc along the cordillera central is expected and shra tsra
will impact tjbq tjmz and the vcty of tjps tjsj thru 23z. Shra
will diminish over the flying area aft 17 23z. Sfc winds will be
e-ese at 15 to 20 knots and gusty near shra tsra, and also with
some sea breeze influences. The winds will become calm to light
and variable after 17 23z.

Marine
No change was made to the inherited marine forecast. Choppy seas
continues across the atlantic and caribbean offshore waters as
well as across the caribbean passages. As a result small craft
advisories will continue across most of the local waters through
this weekend. Mariner can expect seas between 5 and 8 feet and
easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots but locally higher in and
around shower and thunderstorm activity. Seas are expected between
2 and 6 feet across the west, and southern coastal areas of
puerto rico.

Beach goers should visit the surf zone forecast (srfsju and
cfwsju) for additional information about the risk of rip currents.

A high risk of rip currents continue for the north and east
facing beaches of puerto rico and st. Croix.

Prev discussion issued 532 am ast Fri nov 16 2018
synopsis... Low level moisture will increase somewhat across the
local islands today and Saturday as a wind surge propagates
across the northeast caribbean region. This feature will likely
increase showers activity across the u.S. Virgin islands and
puerto rico from time to time. A drying trend is forecast next
week as a mid-upper level ridge will bring drier and more stable
air aloft.

Short term... Today through Sunday...

high pressure weakens and settles into the central atlantic ocean
from out of maine yesterday. This will maintain easterly trade wind
flow that will be enhanced by a wind surge and pulse of moisture.

That moisture is visible as an arc of precipitable water of greater
than 2 inches that developed and moved into the leeward islands
overnight. The GFS is in agreement with model runs from yesterday--
at least qualitatively. It brings that higher moisture through
puerto rico today and tonight, with the best moisture over san juan
by 17 00z. The pulse of moisture and the low-level convergence the
wind surge will bring bodes well for showers to increase during the
day. Working against this, the GFS sounding does show a layer of
relatively dry air (less than 15 percent between 14-15 kft) at
16 18z with precipitable water still at a hefty 1.88 inches. This is
an increase from the 1.77 inches measured in the 16 00z sounding,
but the layer cuts the convective potential and limits instability
where the lapse rate becomes more stable, which will limit the
amounts of rain that fall when they fall. By 17 00z, however the
model is showing 1.97 inches of precipitable water and no less than
35 percent in the previously dry layer. Hence, most windward slopes
on the eastern part of puerto rico should get some rain before the
evening ends and nearly all of puerto rico is expected to get at
least a little rain before then. Western puerto rico will also see
very good chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms with the
heating allowed during the morning hours. Expect shower formation
there by 16 16z. Afternoon and evening rains across the u.S.

Virgin islands and puerto rico respectively, should end rather
abruptly as the model shows precipitable water dropping rapidly
overnight to only 1.2 inches.

Some showers are still possible over the eastern mountains of puerto
rico, but the rest of of the island should see a dry Saturday
morning. Then showers and a few thunderstorms become likely in west
northwest puerto rico with only isolated to scattered showers
elsewhere under a pulse of moisture more evident at 700 mb. The
drying trend continues into Sunday. Although some moisture is around
during the day, mid levels become quite dry. Most areas outside of
the general area just east of the rincon peninsula will see only
isolated showers Sunday afternoon. Then later in the afternoon the
gfs shows more moisture moving in from the southeast as fragmented
patches of low level moisture move through the area in rapid
succession. This will generate a few showers, but coverage should be
relatively sparse.

Upper level divergence aloft is very limited during the entire
period and most of the action that occurs will be dependent on
conditions in the lowest levels.

Long term... Monday through Thursday...

mid to upper level ridge will hold most of the next week, under
generally fair weather conditions. The drier and more stable air
mass at mid-levels will reduce the coverage of the showers and
the probability of thunderstorms. However, weak easterly
perturbation embedded in the trade winds will briefly enhance the
diurnal shower activity Monday and Wednesday when these
pertubations are forecast to move across the eastern caribbean.

The rest of the week expect typical weather conditions with brief
passing showers over eastern puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin
islands during the morning hours, followed by some afternoon
showers over western puerto rico. Winds will gradually diminish as
the week progresses due a weakening of the surface high pressure
over the north central atlantic. All in all, a drying trend and a
decrease in shower activity is forecast next week under the
influence of a mid-upper level ridge.

Aviation... In the leeward islands a band of moisture is moving through
bringing brief MVFR CIGS and light showers.VFR is expected there
aft arnd 16 18z till 17 06z. A band of moisture is moving into
the usvi, but MVFR conds are expected to be brief--if any-- with
sct shra till arnd 16 18z. Shra tsra will dvlp WRN and interior pr
aft arnd 16 16z with mtn obscurations and areas of MVFR ifr til
arnd 16 22z. Periods of shra are expected in most areas of pr till
arnd 17 00z. Sfc winds e- ese 10-18 knots with gusts to 26 kt
psbl. MAX winds blo fl540 will be 20-26 kt blo fl120 as a low
level wind surge pushes through the area.

Marine... Choppy seas will continue through the end of the week
as breezy conditions will likely prevail across the regional
waters. As a result, small craft advisories are in effect for most
of the local waters through Saturday, except for offshore
atlantic water where choppy conditions will prevail through
Sunday. Mariners can expected seas of 6-8 feet with occasional up
to 10 feet across the offshore waters and between 3-6 feet
elsewhere. Also, a high risk of rip currents continue for the
north facing beaches of puerto rico as well as the north and east
coast of st. Croix.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 77 87 77 88 30 30 20 20
stt 78 86 78 86 20 30 30 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through late tonight for northeast-
southeast.

High rip current risk through late Saturday night for north
central-northwest-san juan and vicinity-western interior.

Vi... High rip current risk through late tonight for st croix.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Saturday for st.Thomas... St.

John... And adjacent islands.

Am... Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Saturday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-caribbean waters of puerto rico from 10 nm
to 17n-coastal waters of northern puerto rico out 10 nm-
coastal waters of northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-
coastal waters of southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto
rico out 10 nm-mona passage southward to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Sunday for atlantic waters
of puerto rico and usvi from 10 nm to 19.5n.

Update... Cam
aviation... Cam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 17 mi45 min E 19 G 23 83°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.1)
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 19 mi33 min ENE 8 G 13 84°F 82°F
LAMV3 21 mi27 min 83°F 83°F
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 23 mi33 min SE 9.9 G 17 83°F 82°F1015.7 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 25 mi33 min 83°F 1015.1 hPa
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 39 mi33 min 84°F 83°F1015.1 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 43 mi33 min ESE 12 G 17 82°F 82°F1014.7 hPa
41056 45 mi45 min E 18 G 21 82°F 82°F1014.2 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Christiansted Harbor, St Croix, VI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR76 mi49 minESE 109.00 miLight Rain80°F77°F90%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13E8E7S4S5CalmS3CalmSE3CalmE4--3SE3E4CalmS3SE4E4E5E7E14E13E10
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G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Christiansted, St. Croix Island, Virgin Islands
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Christiansted
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Fri -- 12:29 AM AST     0.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:31 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:24 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM AST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:29 PM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:06 PM AST     0.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:10 PM AST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.50.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.80.80.70.60.60.60.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for St. Croix, Lime Tree Bay, Virgin Islands
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St. Croix
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:37 AM AST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:29 PM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:31 PM AST     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.