Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 6:52 PM Moonrise 4:38 AM   Moonset 5:33 PM

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AMZ745 Coastal Waters Of Southwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 402 Am Ast Mon May 6 2024
Today - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 6 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - East winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 6 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Tuesday - East winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 6 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Numerous showers in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 7 seconds and south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Scattered showers in the evening. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 8 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Numerous showers in the afternoon. Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 8 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet.Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ700 402 Am Ast Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high-pressure building across the western atlantic will push a surface trough further east away from the northeast caribbean, promoting light to moderate trade winds. From late Tuesday night onward, pulses of northeasterly swell will spread across the regional waters. Afternoon convection may result in strong Thunderstorms across the coastal sections of north and western pr each day.

FXCA62 TJSJ 060802 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 402 AM AST Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS

A surface high-pressure building across the Western Atlantic will promote the pooling of above-normal moisture content across the Northeast Caribbean through at least mid-week. A trough between the mid and upper levels will swing by late tonight through Thursday, enhancing the dynamic aloft. Due to the soil saturation across the islands and the much above-normal streamflows along PR's principal rivers, afternoon and evening convection may result in sudden urban and small stream flooding each day. Additionally, due to the high moisture content, places without no rain may experience above-normal heat indices (thus apparent temperatures)
surpassing 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

Pulses of northeasterly swells propagating across the Atlantic Ocean will arrive from Tuesday night through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening rip currents along the north—and east- facing beaches in PR and the USVI.

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday...

Last night, showers developed mostly in north-central Puerto Rico resulting in several Flood Advisories for municipalities in that area. Radar estimates recorded around 2 to 3 inches of rain in municipalities such as Arecibo, Barceloneta, Manati, Vega Baja, and Toa Alta, among others. Approximately, up to 5 inches of rain fell on northern coastal waters. Later, additional showers developed over the eastern sector of Puerto Rico leaving between 1 to 2 inches of rain. During the overnight period, calmer weather conditions dominated across most of the island and the USVI, while showers continued over Atlantic waters and eastern PR. Minimum temperatures have been in the mid and upper 70s across most coastal sites and in the mid and upper 60s along mountains and valleys.

The wet pattern will persist during this period. Plenty of moisture will remain present over the next couple of days with above than normal values of precipitable water (around 2.0 to 2.4 inches).
Based on the latest weather models, a high pressure establishing over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate winds mainly from the east at the surface, while an upper-level trough will move through mid-week keeping wet and unstable conditions continuing across our region. For today, the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests some shower activity could begin earlier across eastern sectors of Puerto Rico, and then concentrate over the interior and west central areas later. During the afternoons from today through midweek, showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the area within mainland Puerto Rico, but southern areas should receive minimal to no rain at all. Moisture levels are expected to peak next Tuesday, which models guidance suggests may be the most active day of the short-term period. Please note that due to saturated soils and much above normal river streamflows, any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could lead to dangerous flooding problems, as well as sudden mudslides and landslides in areas of steep terrain. For that reason, we encourage residents and visitors to remain weather-aware and informed about these potential hazards and to monitor the forecast for future updates.

Temperature-wise, they will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal/urban areas and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the higher terrains. Combined with above-than-normal moisture, heat indices may reach 100ºF across coastal/urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the period.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday

The mid to upper-level trough will continue moving away from the region on Thursday, leaving the islands in a less favorable position for organized convection. A mid to upper-level ridge will try to build over the Northeast Caribbean Friday into the weekend, which may further decrease local instability, potentially bringing relief from the current weather conditions.

At the surface, GFS Total Precipitable Water guidance suggests values returning to the typical values for this time of year from Thursday onward. However, patches of increased moisture may arrive occasionally. Regardless of whether we observe a mixture of sunshine and clouds each day, strong afternoon convection could develop due to local effects and sea breeze variations each day.
Additionally, due to the atypical high sea surface temperature, the advection of a cooler air mass across the warmer waters may result in frequent nighttime showers, reaching the windward sections each night.

Temperature-wise, combining high moisture content with the typical upper 80s to low 90s maximum air temperatures will result in heat indices between 100-107 Fahrenheit or even higher, especially during the daily maximum heating, across the USVI and PR's urban and coastal areas where no significant rain is observed.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)

Mostly VFR conditions expected for most TAF terminals this morning but VCSH should continue near TJSJ. The potential for VCTS and showers are expected to increase around 14Z across USVI and after 16- 18Z in PR sites. VCTS/TSRA may continue to promote tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions later today. E to NE surface winds at 10-15 kts, and then becoming lighter and more variable at night.

MARINE

A surface high-pressure building across the Western Atlantic will push a surface trough further east away from the Northeast Caribbean, promoting light to moderate trade winds. From late Tuesday night onward, pulses of northeasterly swell will spread across the regional waters. Afternoon convection may result in strong thunderstorms across the coastal sections of north and western PR each day.

BEACH FORECAST

Expect seas to be around 3 feet or less across most of the local beaches in the Atlantic, mainly from the east at 6 to 7 seconds, while across the Caribbean, seas will range up to 2 feet from the east at 6 seconds. Therefore, we expect a slight risk of strong rip currents through mid-week.

Pulses of northeast swells, with wave periods of 10 to 13 seconds, will increase the risk of rip currents between moderate and high from late Tuesday into next weekend across the north and east- facing beaches of PR and the USVI.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Puerto Real
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Mon -- 01:06 AM AST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:59 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:24 AM AST     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM AST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:51 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:32 PM AST     1.31 feet High Tide
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Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Magueyes Island
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Mon -- 04:38 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:04 PM AST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM AST     0.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Magueyes Island, Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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