Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
El Combate, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:04PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:46 PM AST (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ741 Mona Passage Southward To 17n- 1024 Am Ast Thu May 23 2019
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. North swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers. Isolated Thunderstorms.
AMZ700 1024 Am Ast Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A light to moderate east southeast wind flow will continue across the local waters for the next several days. There is a chance for isolated Thunderstorms across the regional waters during the afternoon and overnight hours. Seas will increase up to 5 feet across the atlantic waters and passages on Saturday due to a small northerly swell. A second northerly swell is forecast to arrive across the atlantic waters by early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Combate, PR
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location: 18.09, -67.94     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 231620
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1220 pm ast Thu may 23 2019

Update
Considerable amounts of mid to upper level clouds continued across
the region with isolated to scattered showers developing and moving
westward across the region accompanying the aforementioned low level
trough. Expect sufficient breaks in mid to upper level cloudiness
during the afternoon and evening hours to support afternoon convection.

In addition, the instability aloft due to the proximity of the upper
trough and subtropical jet will maintain an unstable conditions aloft
to favor enhanced convection during the afternoon across portions
of the islands. The main activity should be focused mainly over the
interior and northern half of pr including west interior. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in and around the
san juan metro area into the evening hours as well as in the eastern
interior and portions of the usvi during the late afternoon and evening.

No changes to the inherited short term package and reasoning at this
time.

Aviation update No change to previous avn discussion.VFR
conds during the prd. Bkn- ovc lyrs nr fl100... Fl250. Sct-bkn
lyrs nr fl030... Fl050. Shra isold tsra ovr ctrl mtn range of pr
and ovr coastal waters en route btw islands.

Marine update No change to previous marine discussion. Seas
will continue at 5 feet or less and winds 10-15 knots. Isolated
thunderstorms development is still expected over the coastal
waters during the afternoon and overnight hours. Areas of locally
heavy rains and brief gusty winds will remain possible with the
thunderstorm activity.

Prev discussion issued 508 am ast Thu may 23 2019
synopsis...

a mid- to upper-level low northwest of the islands will dominate
the local weather conditions through the upcoming weekend. This
feature along with plenty of tropical moisture will enhance the
formation of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. As this
feature moves eastward, weather conditions should improve
somewhat Friday and Saturday. However, locally induced showers
and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon.

Short term... Today through Saturday...

a light to moderate east to southeast wind flow will prevail across
the region. A mid to upper level southeastward propagating trough
will continue to sink across the western atlantic and remain north
of the region through the short term forecast period. As this
feature approaches the forecast area, favorable conditions with a
divergence pattern aloft will persist today. These conditions
combined with plenty tropical moisture--model precipitable water
estimates between 1.7 and 2.0 inches--will result in enhanced shower
and thunderstorm development. However, a layer of mid to upper level
clouds could significantly reduce the impact of these conditions
and limit the intensity and areal coverage of this activity.

Overall, overnight and morning showers are expected to stream over
the waters into portions of eastern and southern puerto rico, as
well as over the u.S. Virgin islands. As the day progresses, the
bulk of this activity is forecast to shift and cluster along the
interior and western sectors of puerto rico. Showers and isolated
thunderstorm are possible over the san juan metropolitan area, the
u.S. Virgin islands and local waters. Rainfall accumulations are
forecast to peak between 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts. As
a result, there is a potential for urban and small streams flooding,
as well as mudslides in areas near steep terrain.

Conditions aloft are to gradually turn unfavorable as the mid to
upper level trough continues to drift eastward and away from the
region on Friday into the weekend. Although conditions are expected
to improve during this period, afternoon convection is still
expected to develop and affect the interior and western sectors of
puerto rico each day. Rainfall accumulations are forecast to peak
at around an inch on Friday and half an inch on Saturday with
isolated higher amounts. Given that soils are saturated, the
potential for urban and small stream flooding will continue,
particularly across the northwestern quadrant of puerto rico.

Long term... Sunday through Thursday...

model guidances continue to show plenty of tropical moisture next
week. However, model guidance is now backing-up about the final
position of the amplifying trough aloft. Although pw values could
peak between 1.7 and 2.2 inches, the upper-level dynamic could
fade-away during that period. Confidence is low to moderate due to
inconsistencies in the previous solutions. But, if model guidance
is correct, shower and thunderstorm activity will be associated
to low level convergence, and local and diurnal effects through
at least Tuesday.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off to the south of the
islands by Wednesday. Then, another mid- to upper-level trough is
forecast to amplify from the northwest near the islands by
Thursday, which could interact with the lingering tropical
moisture.

Aviation... MainlyVFR conds expected through at least 23 16z.

However, brief shra will result in vcsh at tjsj tist tisx tncm tkpk.

Enhanced afternoon convection will result in vcsh vcts with bkn
to ovc at fl025-030 at tjmz tjbq tjps between 23 16z and 03 06z,
where MVFR conditions are possible. Light and variable winds will
continue, turning from the ese at 10-15 kt with sea breeze
variations and occasional gusts after 23 14z.

Marine...

mariners can expect seas of 5 feet or less across the regional
waters. East to southeast winds will prevail at 10 to 15 knots,
although local effects will promote higher winds up to 20 knots
each afternoon. A northerly swell will move across the atlantic
waters next week. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for
the north facing beaches of puerto rico.

Thunderstorm formation are expected across the western coastal
waters of puerto rico this afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 88 78 88 78 40 40 40 40
stt 87 78 86 77 40 40 20 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ram
long term... .Ds


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MISP4 - 9759938 - Mona Island, PR 0 mi28 min 85°F 83°F1014.5 hPa
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 40 mi46 min 83°F1 ft
PTRP4 41 mi16 min NNW 2.9 G 6 86°F
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 42 mi34 min 83°F 84°F1014.5 hPa
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 48 mi34 min SSE 9.9 G 14 83°F 84°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Mayaguez, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JMZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------E6E5E8E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
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Thu -- 05:53 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM AST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:56 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:25 AM AST     0.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM AST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.30.40.50.50.40.30.20-0-00.10.30.50.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
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Mayaguez
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:53 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM AST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:56 AM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:28 AM AST     0.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM AST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.310.70.50.30.30.30.50.60.70.70.60.40.20.1-0-00.10.30.711.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.