Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Daguao, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:45 PM AST (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 432 Pm Ast Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the night. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
AMZ700 432 Pm Ast Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A light to moderate east southeast wind flow will continue across the local waters for the next several days. There is a chance for Thunderstorms across the western waters of puerto rico each afternoon through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daguao, PR
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location: 18.19, -65.62     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 221532
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1132 am ast Wed may 22 2019

Update Mid to upper level trough is positioned favorably for
thunderstorm development across puerto rico today. The latest
satellite imagery indicates some high clouds passing through, but
this has not completely inhibited surface based convection, as we
can observed clouds developing across the southern slopes and
clouds streaming off the luquillo mountain range. The latest high
resolution guidance still insists on shower and thunderstorm
development across the central sections into western pr. The 12z
sounding showed plenty of moisture but instability was marginal,
compared to the GFS forecast sounding which underestimated the
moisture but it overestimated the instability and energy. That
said, we decided to not make changes to the inherited forecast,
the showers and thunderstorms that are expected could cause urban
and small stream flooding.

Aviation Vfr conds until around 22 18z. Shra tsra expected in
the early afternoon hours across pr, and tjsj, tjbq, tjmz could
observe vcsh vcts. Tempo MVFR conds is possible across tjbq and
tjmz this afternoon. Winds will be from the ese at around 15kt
today, with sea breeze variations and occasional gusts.

Marine Tranquil marine conditions expected for the rest of
today with seas up to 4 feet and winds up to 15 knots. There is a
moderate risk of rip currents for some of the beaches of northern
puerto rico, otherwise there is a low risk of rip currents.

Prev discussion issued 500 am ast Wed may 22 2019
synopsis...

unstable weather conditions will persist through at least Thursday
due to the proximity of a mid- to upper-level trough. This feature
along with plenty of moisture will result in rounds of showers
and thunderstorm each day, especially during the afternoon hours.

A slight improvement is expected Friday and Saturday. Once again,
a trof pattern combined with abundant tropical moisture will
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the
islands by the next week.

Short term... Today through Friday...

a light to moderate east to southeast wind flow will prevail across
the region supported by a surface ridge extending southwestward over
the central atlantic. At mid to upper levels, a southeastward
propagating trough will continue to sink into the northeastern
caribbean. As this feature approaches the forecast area, favorable
conditions aloft will persist under a divergence pattern and
increased instability. These conditions along with plenty tropical
moisture--model precipitable water estimates between 1.5 and 2.0
inches--will result in enhanced shower and thunderstorm development
with peak intensity and areal coverage expected on Thursday.

Overnight and morning showers are expected to stream over the waters
into portions of eastern and southern puerto rico, as well as over
the u.S. Virgin islands. As the day progresses, the bulk of this
activity is forecast to shift and cluster along the interior and
western sectors of puerto rico. Showers and isolated thunderstorm
are also expected to move over the san juan metropolitan area and
the u.S. Virgin islands. Rainfall accumulations are forecast to peak
around an inch and a half with isolated higher amounts today, but
the potential for widespread activity will result in rainfall totals
up to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts on Thursday. As a
result, there is an increasing potential for urban and small streams
flooding, as well as mudslides in areas near steep terrain,
particularly on Thursday.

A slight improvement is expected on Friday, but afternoon convection
will once again affect the northwestern quadrant of puerto rico.

Long term... Saturday through Wednesday...

although weather conditions should improve somewhat on Saturday,
early morning showers across eastern pr and the us virgin islands
followed by afternoon convection along and west of the cordillera
central should not be ruled out.

Global models continues to suggest an amplifying trough
interacting with deep tropical moisture early next week, Sunday
through Tuesday. Precipitable water values could range between 1.8
and 2.2 inches through this period. GFS chiclets look reasonable
consistent during the last few runs. Therefore, if these
solutions are correct, unsettle weather conditions could be
expected the first part of the upcoming week. Confidence is
increasing somewhat but continues low-moderate, because still
far in the forecast time. Please continue to monitor the latest
forecast updates during the next several days.

Model guidances continues to suggest a tropical wave moving across
the local caribbean waters by Wednesday.

Aviation... MainlyVFR conds expected through 22 16z. However, brief
shra will result in vcsh across the leeward and usvi terminals.

Enhanced afternoon convection will result in vcsh vcts with bkn at
fl030-050 at tjmz tjbq between 22 17z and 23 02z, where MVFR
conditions are possible. Light and variable winds will continue,
turning from the ese at 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations and
occasional gusts after 22 14z.

Marine... Across the regional waters and local passages, seas are
expected to remain at 5 feet or less. East to southeast winds
will continue between 10 to 15 knots. There is a low risk of rip
currents, except for the north-central beaches of puerto rico
where the risk is moderate.

Mariners can expect isolated thunderstorms each afternoon mainly
across the western coastal waters of puerto rico. Shower and
thunderstorm activity could increase across the region between
Sunday and Tuesday of the upcoming week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 89 77 88 77 40 40 40 40
stt 88 78 86 77 40 40 40 40

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ja
long term... .99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41056 10 mi46 min E 9.7 G 14 82°F 82°F1013.2 hPa (-1.5)
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 10 mi34 min ESE 7 G 11 82°F 85°F1014.3 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 15 mi28 min 87°F 74°F
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 19 mi34 min 90°F 85°F1014.3 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 32 mi46 min E 16 G 18 82°F 82°F3 ft1012.9 hPa (-1.7)
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 32 mi28 min E 9.9 G 19 82°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 36 mi61 min E 7 87°F 1015 hPa72°F
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 38 mi34 min 82°F 1013.9 hPa
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 46 mi46 min E 9.7 G 12 82°F 82°F3 ft1013 hPa (-1.6)
LAMV3 48 mi28 min 82°F 85°F

Wind History for Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR26 mi50 minENE 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F73°F67%1013.6 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico
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Roosevelt Roads
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Wed -- 05:47 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM AST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:57 AM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:12 AM AST     0.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 PM AST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:27 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.100.20.50.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current (2)
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Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:05 AM AST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:14 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:47 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM AST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:57 AM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:37 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:19 PM AST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:21 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:55 PM AST     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:25 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:27 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.70.40.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.10.40.50.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.