Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 6:57 PM Moonrise 3:47 PM   Moonset 3:12 AM

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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 402 Pm Ast Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and north 1 foot at 8 seconds. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms early this evening. Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds.Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds and north 1 foot at 8 seconds. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds and north 1 foot at 7 seconds. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds and north 1 foot at 7 seconds. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Scattered showers. Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Numerous showers in the afternoon. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Numerous showers. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Friday night - East winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ700 402 Pm Ast Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure across the central and northeast atlantic will result in moderate easterly winds through the rest of the weekend. Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated Thunderstorms could move from western puerto rico into the coastal waters each day.

FXCA62 TJSJ 192002 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 402 PM AST Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS

Hazy skies and warmer-than-normal conditions will persist through early next week, with limited afternoon shower and isolated thunderstorm development across western portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the local islands. A wet and unstable weather pattern continues to be expected by midweek of next week as a deep- layered trough approaches from the west and combines with tropical moisture. Tranquil marine conditions and a low rip current risk will prevail throughout the next few days.



SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday...

Stable weather conditions prevailed across the region during the early morning hours. As the day progressed, shower activity developed in the northeastern and interior sections, resulting in XX rain in XX, as indicated by Doppler Radar. Daytime temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the coastal areas, with heat indices of 105° to 110° in the northern coastal regions.

A variable weather pattern is expected as afternoon convection diminishes for the rest of the day. In the early evening hours, there is potential for shower activity across the coastal waters, streaming from the island's southeastern coast. By Monday, instability will slightly decrease as the upper-level trough dominating the area moves eastward. Although instability will remain with favorable conditions in the zonal flow, the islands can expect a convective pattern driven by local effects.

Upper-level conditions will rapidly deteriorate again by Tuesday as a deep upper trough sinking just over Cuba leaves the positive vorticity advection side over the region, facilitating cloud formation and shower activity. Although instability will be present for widespread shower activity, it will be localized in the afternoon hours across the interior and northwestern quadrant due to the southeasterly wind flow resulting from the broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...

From previous discussion issued at 414 AM AST Sun May 19 2024

A wet, unstable weather pattern is expected through the second half of the week as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin to then form a surface low in the western Atlantic by the weekend. The surface induced trough that is projected to form south of Hispanola on Wednesday night will cause an acceleration of the surface winds along with a rapid increase of moisture sourced from the ITCZ as the airmass moves northward in the eastern Caribbean. Winds will continue to veer towards a southerly direction by the end of the week as the low strengthens to the northwest of the area. Throughout this time the proximity of the low's mid to upper-level jet will maintain strong winds aloft which will increase the chance of thunderstorm activity as ventilation is enhanced. Conditions seem to calm through the weekend as this system moves further from the local area, however light surface wind flow and abundant moisture will allow diurnal heating and local effects to bring heavy rainfall during the afternoon hours.

Due to all of this, Wednesday through the weekend will consist of periods of heavy rainfall for mostly all of Puerto Rico and the USVI. Flash flooding due to continuous rainfall is possible through this event also strong thunderstorms are also likely to occur. Stay tuned for further updates as we approach these days.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

Brief MVFR conditions are possible due to SHRA and VCTS near TJBQ & TJSJ until 19/21Z. They will improve by resulting in VFR conditions for all the TAF sites. Winds will remain from the E-SE with sea breeze variations and diminishing, becoming VRB, and increasing again by 20/14Z. Tomorrow, another round of showers will result in VCSH and VCTS across northern TAF sites.



MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in moderate easterly winds through the rest of the weekend.
Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.



BEACH FORECAST

There is a low rip current risk for across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, life- threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. The risk will likely become moderate for southwestern Puerto Rico and St Croix starting Monday night.
In addition, with possible maximum heat indices between 102-107 degrees or higher, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be likely with prolonged exposure. Stay hydrated!



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-011.

VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...None.

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Mayaguez
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Sun -- 03:11 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:02 AM AST     0.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM AST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 PM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 PM AST     1.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Puerto Real
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:12 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:59 AM AST     0.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:54 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:23 AM AST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 PM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 PM AST     1.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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