Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naranjito, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 6:01PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:21 AM AST (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:21AMMoonset 4:52PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 341 Am Ast Tue Oct 17 2017
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet in the afternoon. And isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet in the evening. Scattered showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
AMZ700 341 Am Ast Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will bring periods heavy rain and locally enhanced winds/seas to the waters for the next couple of days. A small craft advisory is in effect for portions of the waters through late Tuesday night. Another tropical wave will approach the regional waters on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naranjito, PR
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location: 18.31, -66.18     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 170756
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
356 am ast Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Another tropical wave will bring moisture later this afternoon
and through Wednesday that will again cause urban and small stream
flooding, river rises and mudslides. Drying will begin on
Thursday and drier air will continue in place Friday through
Sunday night, ending the threat of flooding even while low-level
moisture allows scattered showers to form Saturday and Sunday. The
arrival of the drier air on Thursday will be heralded by a wind
surge.

Short term Today through Thursday...

puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands are now between two
tropical waves and most of the rain and even the low and middle
clouds over the area have dissipated. Ponce was reporting rain and
lower ceilings as of 3 am ast. The GFS and ECMWF both bring in
moisture from the next wave either this afternoon or later this
evening and ramp it up through 18 18z. This should lessen the
chances of flooding today with rainfall amounts being the least
today of any day Sunday through Wednesday (15-18). That said, lack
of early morning cloud cover is expected to enhance surface
heating and local convection, leading to locally heavy rainfall
this afternoon. Most local models and the GFS bring very high pops
to interior western and northwestern puerto rico this afternoon,
and although this did not happen as much yesterday there may be
more convection in the northwest today than yesterday. Also
convection and rain will likely still occur in the southeast flow
over the coastal foothills and slopes of southeast puerto rico
today. The 18 00z GFS has upper levels suppressing convection at
18 18z with an area of convergence, but returns to divergence of
respectable intensity on Wednesday reflecting the forecast of
better convection and rainfall amounts on Wednesday. Unfortunately
soils remain completely saturated due to the long period of light
and moderate rainfall that occurred over much of the southeast
two thirds of puerto rico so the threat of mudslides, even with
very modest amounts of additional rainfall, will continue today
and increase tomorrow. Although showers may arrive a little
earlier in the u.S. Virgin islands today, they are expected to
yield considerably less rainfall and widespread flooding is not
expected there.

Therefore the flash flood watch will continue for puerto rico
through Wednesday evening.

The transition to drier air occurs on Thursday. Local strong
thunderstorms may actually be more likely on Thursday over
northwest puerto rico in the southeast flow, but overall rainfall
amounts will be less and temperatures will generally be somewhat
warmer, mainly on the north coast. Thicknesses do begin to
decline into the weekend.

Long term Friday through Monday...

precipitable water in the GFS drops to as little as 1.1 inches on
Friday through Sunday and this should be enough to generate only
isolated thunderstorms. Then, the base of a 10 thousand foot band
of relative humidity of less than 10 percent is forecast to begin
just above the 700 mb level that should eliminate all but the most
robust convective parcels. Showers would also be short-lived.

Also, at upper levels, northwest flow with anti-cyclonic curvature
will persist Friday through Sunday to enhance subsidence and
often convergent flow. The GFS does bring in several shots of
divergence however and therefore cannot rule out local
thunderstorms in the west during the afternoons and scattered
light showers on the east coast during the mornings. This point is
confirmed by periods of 850 mb moisture above 80 percent over the
weekend and into next week, in spite of the weak moisture at 700
mb during the period. Shower activity will increase Monday but
Sunday through Wednesday of this week will likely be the wettest
period of the next 10 days.

Aviation
Low level moisture is abundant, but except for mtn obscurations
conditions are expected to beVFR at tjsj, tjbq, tist and tjmz
thru 18 16z. Tjps and tkpk will have periods of MVFR due to shra.

Aft 18 16z areas of ra shra tsra will increase, mainly over
interior southeast and northwest pr. Flow SE 15-25 kt sfc-fl120
bcmg southerly 5-20 kt to fl360. Sfc flow will bcm more ese aft
18 20z, but sea breeze influences will prevail.

Marine Southeast flow will keep the atlantic and caribbean
waters rough and choppy. Small craft advisory conditions will
continue in parts of the outer waters and anegada passage much of
the week. A wind surge beginning on Thursday will cause seas to
rise late in the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 88 81 86 83 50 40 30 20
stt 84 82 84 84 30 50 30 20

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... Flash flood watch through Wednesday evening for central interior-
culebra-eastern interior-mayaguez and vicinity-north
central-northeast-northwest-ponce and vicinity-san juan and
vicinity-southeast-southwest-vieques-western interior.

Vi... High rip current risk through this afternoon for st croix.

Am... Flash flood watch through Wednesday evening for coastal waters
of southwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm ast this evening for caribbean
waters of puerto rico from 10 nm to 17n-mona passage
southward to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Wednesday for anegada
passage southward to 17n-atlantic waters of puerto rico and
usvi from 10 nm to 19.5n.

Short term... 99
long term... .99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 11 mi51 min 84°F1015.4 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 12 mi51 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 82°F 1014.3 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 25 mi51 min 83°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 30 mi51 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 36 mi81 min E 14 G 16 84°F 85°F1013 hPa (+0.8)
41056 38 mi81 min ESE 14 G 18 83°F 4 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.3)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 47 mi51 min 82°F 84°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for San Juan, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR13 mi25 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F78°F94%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6CalmW4E3CalmCalmE11SE6SE3SE3S4SE3S9
G18
33NE3CalmNW3S3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalm
1 day agoSE3SE7S7S12
G21
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4E11E12S4SE4SE5SE5E6E5CalmNW3CalmCalmSE4Calm
2 days agoE6NE8NE9NE11
G16
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N9NE9N10NE7NE7NE7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4SW3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico
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San Juan
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Tue -- 12:56 AM AST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:20 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:18 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM AST     1.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:14 PM AST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:00 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:23 PM AST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.50.711.31.51.61.51.31.10.80.50.40.50.70.91.21.51.61.61.41.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for San Juan, Puerto Rico
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San Juan
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM AST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:20 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:18 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM AST     1.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:14 PM AST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:00 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:23 PM AST     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.50.711.31.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.40.50.70.91.21.51.61.61.41.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
carb_satellite

GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.