Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fajardo, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:46PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 4:40 PM AST (20:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:12PMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 406 Pm Ast Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 406 Pm Ast Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure will build over the central atlantic during the next few days. An active tropical wave will continue to bring periods of showers and Thunderstorms across the regional waters through at least early Thursday morning. Hazardous seas are expected to continue through the end of the work week and into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fajardo, PR
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location: 18.33, -65.63     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 141530
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1130 am ast Wed nov 14 2018

Update
A tropical wave and an induce surface trough is causing hazardous
weather conditions across most of puerto rico this morning. Tjsj
doppler radar shows moderate to heavy rain across portions of
eastern, southeastern and interior areas of puerto, while the
northern and metro areas are seeing light to moderate rain. This
activity is progged to continue through the reminder of the
afternoon. Therefore due to saturated soils from yesterdays rain
and the moderate to heavy rain today urban and small stream
flooding as well as mudslides in higher train is likely today. In
addition, these showers and thunderstorms are producing frequent
lightning as well as gusty winds up to 30 mph.

Aviation
MVFRVFR conditions are prevailing across all terminal sites with
mvrf conds occurring due to +shra tsra. CIGS will continue to
fluctuate across the terminal sites as result of +shra tsra
today. Shra tsra will persist through the 15 00z TAF period.

Strong sfc winds out of the east ranging from 20 to 30 kts, winds
turn to the southeast at 09 to 020 kft with winds ranging from 16
to 30 kts.

Marine
Choppy marine conditions will continue today as a result of a
tropical wave and induce surface trough to the northeast of puerto
rico. Therefore a small craft advisory is in effect for most of
the local and outer waterways. Seas will range from 6 to 8 feet
with seas occasionally reaching 10 feet.

Prev discussion issued 529 am ast Wed nov 14 2018
synopsis... Unstable pattern associated with a surface trough and
an upper level low will continue to produce periods of heavy
rainfall across the local islands through Thursday. Conditions
will gradually improve Friday as mid-level high pressure ridge
will limit the coverage and the vertical development of the
showers. A moisture surge embedded in the trade winds will bring
some passing showers on Saturday.

Short term... Today through Friday...

the interaction of a low level trough over the area with an upper
level low spread from haiti to just west of saint croix and
abundant moisture will cause shower and thunderstorms to continue
across the area. Southeast flow of 20 to 30 knots will keep a flow
of moisture over the local area with southeast puerto rico
receiving a major portion of the rainfall, but with northwest
puerto rico receiving some afternoon showers due to local
convergence and heating. A dry slot at 700 mb will enter the area
around 15 12z, but will be followed by another band of good
moisture and a ribbon of moisture that will arrive from the east
southeast on Friday.

The low pressure in the upper levels appears to have disrupted the
formation of a tropical system and the national hurricane center
continues to give it a dismal chance of becoming a tropical storm in
the next 5 days. Also the wave has a classic inverted vee formation,
the first leg of which is over puerto rico and the atlantic waters
to the north. This is why saint thomas and saint croix received so
little rain overnight. The second leg should arrive tonight--or a
little earlier in the case of the u.S. Virgin islands. But after
this leg GOES by, the southeast flow that continues will bring bands
of high humidity through the area and more narrow bands of drier air
and subsidence that will keep shower formation likely through the
period.

A flash flood watch continues in effect for all of puerto rico and
the u.S. Virgin islands. Local rains of 1 to 4 inches, the exact
location being difficult to ascertain, are expected today through
Thursday and would produce flooding. Nevertheless, widespread
flooding is not expected.

Long term... Saturday through Tuesday...

another upper level low tutt will approach the region from the
east. This feature is forecast to remain over the leeward islands
keeping the local area on the stable side of the trough during
the weekend. However, a moisture surge embedded in the easterly
trade winds will bring showers and a couple of thunderstorms at
times during the weekend.

By early next week... Mid level ridge will hold and dominate the
local weather conditions. This will strengthen the trade wind cap
favoring a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity. Under
this pattern, fresh trade winds will carry some showers over the
usvi and eastern pr in the morning followed by the typical
afternoon convection over western pr.

Aviation... An upper lvl low and slowly migrating trough has produced
a wide area of rain, MVFR and mtn obscurations that covered the
eastern quarter of pr at 14 09z with only isolated showers over
other land areas. Sct-numr showers will persist over the atlantic
waters. Shra over land will dvlp after 14 14z and spread west. By
14 16z shra tsra are expected to dvlp ovr WRN and interior pr.

Shra tsra will also be present around the leeward islands.

Unsettled conds will prevail thru 16 18z in the fcst area. Sfc
winds ese 10-20 kt with some sea breeze influences aft 14 14z. Max
winds blo fl540 are ese-se and are all are blo fl100 at 15 to 25
kt.

Marine... Breezy conditions will likely prevail the rest of the
week, resulting in choppy conditions across most of the regional
waters. As a result, small craft advisories are in effect for most
of the local waters through at least the end of the work week. Seas
should range between 6-8 feet occasional up to 10 feet offshore,
and between 3-6 feet elsewhere.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 88 76 88 76 90 50 40 40
stt 86 76 86 78 70 40 50 50

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for culebra-
north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and vicinity-
southeast-western interior.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for central
interior-culebra-eastern interior-mayaguez and vicinity-
north central-northeast-northwest-ponce and vicinity-san
juan and vicinity-southeast-southwest-vieques-western
interior.

Vi... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for st croix.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for st croix-
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Am... Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for coastal waters
of southwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of
northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of southern
usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm ast Saturday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-atlantic waters of puerto rico and usvi
from 10 nm to 19.5n-caribbean waters of puerto rico from 10
nm to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 am ast Friday for coastal waters of
northern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of northern
usvi and culebra out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Friday for coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm-
mona passage southward to 17n.

Short term... Tw
long term... .Er


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41056 10 mi40 min E 12 G 16 82°F 83°F1012.9 hPa (-0.4)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 17 mi40 min 84°F 84°F1013.9 hPa (-0.7)
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 18 mi40 min E 5.1 G 8 82°F 83°F1013.4 hPa (-0.5)
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 22 mi40 min 84°F 76°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 27 mi40 min ESE 7 G 9.9 81°F 83°F1014 hPa (-0.7)
41053 - San Juan, PR 27 mi40 min ESE 9.7 G 14 82°F 83°F5 ft1012.9 hPa (-0.7)
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 38 mi40 min 83°F 1014 hPa (-0.5)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 41 mi55 min E 4.1 1015 hPa
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 46 mi40 min E 16 G 19 83°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.7)
LAMV3 48 mi40 min 82°F 84°F

Wind History for Fajardo, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR21 mi44 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E11SE5NE7SE5E5E7E5S3S3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmSE3E6E10
G18
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1 day agoE12NE10E8SE4NE9E12E11E8NE15
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2 days agoE5E9E7E7E7E4CalmS3E3CalmCalmE3CalmNE5CalmSE4E4E11
G18
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E8NE14E11E13NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Fajardo
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Wed -- 12:48 AM AST     0.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM AST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:12 PM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:00 PM AST     1.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM AST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:44 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.90.80.60.40.30.30.40.60.81.11.41.51.61.51.41.20.90.70.60.60.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current (2)
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Vieques Passage
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Wed -- 01:16 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:06 AM AST     0.48 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:28 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:53 AM AST     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:12 PM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:31 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:44 PM AST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:45 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:40 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:18 PM AST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:44 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.