Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 6:52 PM Moonrise 12:32 PM   Moonset 12:57 AM

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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 400 Pm Ast Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and north 2 feet at 9 seconds. Isolated showers this evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and north 2 feet at 10 seconds. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and north 2 feet at 8 seconds. Scattered showers in the evening. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 6 seconds and north 2 feet at 9 seconds. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds and north 2 feet at 9 seconds. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and north 2 feet at 9 seconds. Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Sunday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Scattered showers in the morning. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet.

AMZ700 400 Pm Ast Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure across the western and central atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds for the upcoming days. Therefore, tranquil marine conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and Thunderstorms could move from western puerto rico into the waters each afternoon.

FXCA62 TJSJ 152135 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 535 PM AST Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS...

A typical weather pattern is forecasted for the next several days, featuring afternoon showers across the interior and western sections of the island. An increase in shower activity is expected for the upcoming workweek due to the arrival of abundant tropical moisture and instability facilitated by a mid to upper-level trough. Residents and visitors are urged to stay tuned for further updates for the upcoming workweek.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday...

Similar to the past few days, calm conditions prevailed during the morning hours followed by convection in the early afternoon hours across the interior and southwest quadrant of Puerto Rico. According to radar estimates, at the moment between 1 to 1.5 inches of rain have fallen in municipalities such as Añasco, San German, Juana Diaz, and Adjuntas. The rest of the areas have seen half-inch or less to zero rain. Not many changes are expected for tonight's period, showers should continue to fade after sunset allowing generally calm weather conditions with easterly winds around 5 to 10 mph.

The short-term forecast remains on track. According to the latest models, a mid to upper-level high-pressure system will continue to spread eastward across the region from the western to southwestern Atlantic, while another surface high pressure moves in the western and central Atlantic. Moisture levels should remain within the normal range, between 1.5 and 1.8 inches of precipitable water tomorrow through Friday. Winds become more easterly to southeastern as an easterly disturbance approaches the forecast area along with an upper trough crossing the western Atlantic next Friday.
This could result in more favorable conditions for the development of rain in the afternoon hours and possible isolated thunderstorms.
Due to the change in wind flow, showers could concentrate in the northeast quadrant and interior of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. In addition, that will favor the warm temperatures to continue, with daytime temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas and heat indices may range between 100-107 degrees Fahrenheit during the afternoon hours. Residents and visitors to the islands are encouraged to stay hydrated and limit direct sun exposure when possible.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 431 AM AST Wed May 15 2024/

A surface high pressure system extending from the central Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region in the initial phase of the long-term forecast. These winds will carry patches of tropical moisture to the local islands, enhancing the likelihood of shower formation, particularly in the afternoon. Most showers are anticipated to develop across the interior, the northwestern quadrant, and the San Juan metro area.
Some sections of the islands may experience clear skies in the mornings, coupled with available moisture, which could elevate heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat for the northern coastal area of Puerto Rico.

Instability is expected to increase by late Sunday and persist throughout the forecast period as a mid to upper-level trough moves from the western Atlantic. According to guidance from global models such as the GFS and ECMWF, the strongest and most favorable side of the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough)
and its associated jet stream will cover the local islands from Monday through Wednesday. With aloft instability and colder temperatures at mid-levels, abundant tropical moisture will be present at the surface, with precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding climatological norms by over 2 inches. Consequently, a wet period is forecasted for all the islands, characterized by morning shower activity followed by widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Residents and visitors should anticipate periods of heavy showers and an increased risk of flooding from Tuesday through Wednesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period. SHRA are expected to linger across the Cordillera Central through 22Z, with mountain obscuration possible. VCTS are possible for TJPS during this period as well, and brief periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are possible. VCSH are also expected for the USVI terminals after 22Z. Winds will be from the E below 10 knots tonight, increasing to 10-12 kts after 16/14Z.

MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Central Atlantic will continue to promote light to moderate easterly winds across the region. With this pattern, seas will remain up to 4 feet across all the local waters and passages.
These conditions will prevail across the local waters during the period. Similar tranquil marine conditions are expected for the coastal areas, where the risk for rip currents will remain low for the next five days or so.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Boca De Cangrejos
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Wed -- 12:57 AM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 AM AST     1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM AST     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:05 AM AST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:26 PM AST     0.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM AST     0.29 feet Low Tide
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Boca De Cangrejos, Isla Verde, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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