Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leilani Estates, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:43PM Sunday December 9, 2018 10:47 PM HST (08:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 830 Pm Hst Sun Dec 9 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through early Wednesday morning...
Rest of tonight..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. North swell 11 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. North swell 8 feet. Scattered showers in the morning.
Monday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 6 to 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 to 8 feet. Northwest swell 5 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 830 Pm Hst Sun Dec 9 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A couple of highs will build to the north of the island chain through the week, keeping strong trade winds blowing across the marine area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leilani Estates, HI
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location: 19.4, -154.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 100641
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
841 pm hst Sun dec 9 2018

Synopsis
A series of high pressure systems moving through the central
pacific this week will bring breezy to locally windy trade winds
across the islands through Friday. Expect periods of showers for
the next five days, mainly over windward and mountain areas with
brief periods of leeward rainfall. Wind speeds will decrease by
next weekend as the ridge north of the islands weakens in response
to a cold front approaching the hawaiian islands from the
northwest.

Discussion
The GOES satellite imagery this evening shows bands of unstable
clouds moving in with the breezy trade winds across the state. The
strongest of these cloud and shower bands has developed upstream
of kauai and oahu with an enhanced period of showers forecast
through the overnight hours for both islands.

The latest forecast models continue to show a zonal west to east
jet stream pattern across the north pacific basin. This
progressive pattern will lead to a series of high pressure systems
moving across the pacific this week maintaining a strong high
pressure gradient across the state with breezy to windy trade
winds forecast for all islands. Wind speeds will strengthen on
Monday as high pressure builds across the island chain. A wind
advisory remains in effect until Monday evening for lanai, maui
central valley, big island kohala mountains and from volcano to
south point.

An upper level trough is observed on the mid to upper level water
vapor satellite imagery. This upper trough will likely produce
enough lift to keep wet trade winds around the hawaiian islands
through much of the week. Model forecast cross sections show the
through Friday as strong trade winds and upper level forcing
combine to keep the hawaiian islands in a wet and windy weather
pattern. The highest chances for showers will tend to favor
windward and mauka sections of each island with some of the
stronger showers drifting over leeward areas.

Long range forecast model solutions show the ridge north of the
islands weakening over the upcoming weekend as another cold front
approaches hawaii from the northwest. The weakening high pressure
ridge will decrease regional pressure gradients and wind speeds
each day.

Aviation
With moderate to strong trade winds in place, clouds and moisture
will continue banking against the windward slopes on all islands.

This will cause the windward mauka areas to experience passing
MVFR conditions through tonight and Sunday for all islands,
especially the big island and kauai. Airmet sierra for mountain
obscuration is currently in effect for windward slopes of kauai
and oahu. The winds may remain strong enough overnight to allow a
few showers to leak over in leeward areas.

Moderate to strong winds will stay in place for the next few days
until the high northwest of the state shifts to the east. Until
that happens expect low-level turbulence across the state south
through west of the mountains on each island. Airmet tango remains
in effect for low-level turbulence below 8,000ft and strong
surface winds greater than 30 kt. Conditions are expected to
persist through at least Sunday afternoon.

Marine
A series of highs building to the north of the state will keep
strong trade winds blowing across the coastal waters through the
week. A slight increase in trade winds is expected on Monday as
the first of the highs strengthens to the north of the islands.

The trades are then expected to ease a bit during the middle of
the week as a cold front passes by north of the state. The second
in the series of highs will then build in for the end of the work
week, increasing the trade winds once again. This high is then
forecast to weaken north of the state next weekend, allowing the
trade winds to ease into the moderate to locally breezy range.

A gale warning remains in effect for the alenuihaha channel
through Monday night, and this may eventually need to be extended
through Tuesday. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all
the other coastal waters through Tuesday night, and this will
likely need to be extended through Friday due to winds, seas, or a
combination of the two.

Buoys and satellite altimeter data indicate that the current nnw
swell is on the decline, so we should see surf begin to respond
later tonight across north and west facing shores where the high
surf warning (hsw) remains in effect. The hsw will likely be
transitioned to a high surf advisory (hsa) Monday morning, with
surf likely to drop below the hsa level by Monday afternoon.

Another long-period northwest swell is due in on Tuesday and
could peak near hsa levels on Wednesday. Several smaller NW and n
swells are expected towards the end of the week.

Surf is on the rise along east facing shores of most islands and
is expected to remain elevated through the week due to strong
trades driving an increase in short-period wind waves. A high surf
advisory (hsa) remains in effect for east facing shores and will
likely be extended through at least the middle of the week later
tonight.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf warning until 6 am hst Monday for niihau-kauai
windward-kauai leeward-oahu north shore-oahu koolau-olomana-
molokai-maui windward west-maui central valley-windward
haleakala-big island north and east.

High surf advisory until 6 am hst Monday for waianae coast-south
big island.

Wind advisory until 6 pm hst Monday for lanai-kahoolawe-maui
central valley-south big island-big island north and east-kohala.

Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Wednesday for kauai
northwest waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-
kauai channel-oahu windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi
channel-maui county windward waters-maui county leeward waters-
maalaea bay-pailolo channel-big island windward waters-big
island leeward waters-big island southeast waters.

Gale warning until 6 am hst Tuesday for alenuihaha channel.

Discussion... Bohlin
aviation... Bedal
marine... Jelsema


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 24 mi47 min NE 8 G 12 75°F 77°F1021.9 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI23 mi54 minENE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW3W5NW9W5NW3W5NE5NW8CalmN5CalmNE10NE11NE9NW6N8N9N10NE7NE9NE6NE5NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:01 AM HST     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:45 PM HST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:13 PM HST     1.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:03 PM HST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.31.82.22.62.72.62.31.91.410.60.40.40.60.811.21.10.90.70.50.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:13 AM HST     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:05 PM HST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM HST     1.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:26 PM HST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.62.22.62.82.72.421.51.10.90.80.811.21.31.31.20.90.60.30.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.