Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leilani Estates, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 6:46PM Friday August 18, 2017 7:31 PM HST (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:56AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 337 Pm Hst Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Showers likely.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Showers likely.
Monday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Showers likely.
Tuesday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Showers likely.
Wednesday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. SWell southeast 3 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 337 Pm Hst Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface high will remain far northeast of the area. A low aloft will pass over the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leilani Estates, HI
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location: 19.4, -154.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 190137
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
337 pm hst Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Trade winds will decrease a bit as a weakness develops in the
ridge to our north, allowing development of local sea breezes
across leeward areas into early next week. Leeward areas will see
an increase in clouds and showers each afternoon and evening,
while diminished trade flow will continue to supply both to
windward and mauka areas. Moisture from an old tropical cyclone
will increase shower coverage and bring muggy conditions to the
islands late Saturday through the first half of next week. Expect
drier and windier conditions to return late next week as the ridge
rebuilds.

Discussion
Upper troughing along 150w is beginning to put a dent in the
surface subtropical ridge to our north and a recent ascat pass
showed that winds have begun to subside across local waters.

Satellite loop shows scattered to patchy broken low clouds
embedded within trade flow moving across the islands, with little
change noted upwind as far as 145w. Radar shows only isolated
showers moving across the islands within this cloud cover. Latest
soundings showed a dry and neutral airmass, with about an inch of
pw and near zero lifted index values. Strong inversions persist
between 6000 and 7000 feet. The upper trough to our north has yet
to raise the inversion or significantly destabilize our airmass.

Models show the upper trough to our north will dig southwestward
over the next few days, placing the base of the trough over the
islands, and the trough axis near kauai and oahu, by Sunday. This
roughly coincides with the arrival of an influx of moisture from
now-defunct jova and a general decrease in background trade flow.

While trade flow may rebound slightly Monday and Tuesday around
the big island, the overall statewide result will likely be
increased trade shower coverage across windward and mauka areas,
the introduction of afternoon sea breeze clouds and showers
across leeward areas, and an overall muggy feel to the air from
late Saturday through Tuesday. There is still noticeable model
disagreement concerning a potential thunderstorm threat on Monday.

Gfs continues to push enough cold air aloft southward to trigger
this threat across the western islands on Monday, but ECMWF keeps
this cold air too far west of the main islands to be threatening
during the same time frame. We will keep thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall out of the forecast for now, but will reconsider if and
when model solutions converge.

By Wednesday, both models show the subtropical ridge recovering,
with trade winds increasing back into the moderate to locally
breezy range once again. Drier conditions will move in as well.

Aviation
A ridge of high pressure north of the state will keep a moderate
to locally breezy trade wind flow in place through tonight, with
clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR
cigs may affect windward areas as showers move in with the trades,
particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

PredominantlyVFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through
00z Sunday.

No airmets are currently in effect. Airmet sierra may be needed
for mountain obscuration across some windward areas later
tonight.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
levels through the weekend as a trough aloft moves over the area
and helps weaken the pressure gradient. The trough may make
showers more active, and could even produce some thunderstorms
early next week. Wind speeds will increase again later next week.

Surf along all shores is expected to remain well below the high
surf advisory threshold. Surf along south facing shores is up a
bit due to a swell generated in the southern hemisphere. Surf
along the south facing shores will gradually subside over the
weekend.

The peak high tides for the month will occur over the next few days.

Water levels are running as much as a foot above the predicted
levels due to an eddy moving westward through hawaiian waters.

Coastal flooding is possible around the times of the high tides
through the weekend. See the special weather statement for more
details.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion... Powell
aviation... Jelsema
marine... Donaldson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 24 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 7 80°F 81°F1013.2 hPa
51206 26 mi34 min 81°F5 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI23 mi38 minNNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds79°F70°F74%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NW3NW3W63CalmW3SW3SW3SW4SW5SW5CalmN5N4N6N6N10N9NE9NE7NE7NE7NE3
1 day agoN9NW9W7W5W3SW4W3W4SW4SW5SW5S4CalmCalmE3N4NE8N8E9N10N9NE8NE6NE4
2 days agoW8W7SW4SW4SW4SW5SW5CalmCalmW5SW5SW3CalmNW4N5CalmN8NE6N9N8N8NE8N6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kunio Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM HST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM HST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM HST     2.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:45 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM HST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.61.41.10.70.2-0.2-0.3-0.20.20.91.62.32.832.82.51.91.30.80.50.50.61

Tide / Current Tables for Honuapo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Honuapo
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:35 AM HST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:04 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM HST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:46 PM HST     2.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM HST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.51.51.310.50-0.3-0.3-00.51.21.92.52.932.72.31.71.10.60.40.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.