Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leilani Estates, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 6:34PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 9:07 PM HST (07:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 616 Pm Hst Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..East winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 6 ft. Scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 20 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 6 ft. Scattered showers in the morning...then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 6 ft. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 5 ft. Scattered showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 5 ft. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 9 ft increasing to 11 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers in the morning...then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 15 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. Northwest swell 11 ft. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Northwest swell 8 to 10 ft. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 20 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. Northwest swell 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 616 Pm Hst Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure northeast of the islands will shift east through midweek as a cold front passes far north of the state. High pressure will build north of the state over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leilani Estates, HI
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location: 19.4, -154.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 290625
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
825 pm hst Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A trade wind regime will persist through the upcoming weekend and
into the early part of next week as a ridge of high pressure
remains north of the islands. Showers embedded in the trade wind
flow will favor the windward and mountain. The frequency of these
showers will higher during the nights and mornings. The trades
will turn windy over the weekend and lasting through early next
week.

Discussion
The morning clouds and showers that affected some of the smaller
islands this morning gave way to a brief period of clouds across
the lee and interior sections early this afternoon. The trades
picked up enough by mid afternoon to disperse these clouds towards
evening. It was a rather wet morning in particularly the hilo
area of windward big island. Most of these showers have moved on.

The lee side of the big island is mainly cloudy but dry at sunset.

These clouds will gradually disperse during the evening hours.

During the overnight hours, the trade showers will be picking up
especially after midnight as a batch of low level moisture
approaches the big island from the east. Satellite imagery shows
the leading edge of this area 160 miles east of CAPE kumukahi at
sunset. Models have this shower area impacting windward big
islands in the next couple of hours before moving to as far as
molokai before dispersing by mid morning Wednesday.

On Wednesday, we will see a repeat of today as a tinge of
weakness in the trades will allow for a brief period of afternoon
clouds and isolated showers to form over the lee and interior
areas of the smaller islands. The models maintain this pattern
through Thursday as the last of this area of moisture finally
leaves the islands. This air mass will be followed by a pocket
of slightly drier air mass Friday and Friday night.

On Friday night, the surface high feeding the islands with the
gentle trades will be reinforced by another surface high. This
will take place some 1200 miles nne of the islands resulting in a
strong 1034 mb high. This translate in a boost in the trades to
moderate to strong speeds. At this time, there is a chance of a
wind advisory for the typically windy areas of places like the
waimea saddle on the big island and or lanai over the weekend.

This boost in the trades will be accompanied by an uptick in the
frequency of trade showers.

The weather pattern takes a change north of the islands Sunday
into Monday where the high is shoved off far to the east. This
will lead to a weaker trade wind flow by Tuesday. And with the
weaker trades, there will be fewer trade showers.

Aviation
With a broad surface high far northeast of the state, trade winds
will be light to moderate through Wednesday. Low clouds, with any
accompanying showers moving along on the trades, will mainly
affect windward and mauka sections on the individual isles, but
conditions overall will remainVFR.

There are no airmets currently in effect, and none are anticipated
through the nighttime hours.

Marine
Just over 1500 nm northwest of kauai near the date line (around 40n)
and a ridge axis extending westward from a 1030 mb high centered off
the coast of california to just north of the islands. A very strong
pressure gradient was depicted south of this low northwest of the
state, that was supported by an ascat pass earlier today where a
large area of strong west-northwest gales (focused within the 290 to
310 directional band relative to the islands) were shown out to
around 500 nm south-southwest from the low (leading edge of the
fetch was around 1300 nm northwest of the islands). According to the
latest altimeter passes, seas associated with this system have
dropped slightly from yesterday, but still upwards within the 28 to
33 ft range over the heart of the fetch region focused toward the
islands. Despite some small differences between solutions, the
latest model guidance is remaining in decent agreement with these
latest satellite trends and shows this system continuing on an
east-northeast track crossing the date line Tuesday night into
Wednesday around 40n.

A large west-northwest swell (290-310 deg) associated with this
system discussed above will result across the region, that should
reach the islands Thursday night, peak through the day Friday and
Friday night, then slowly ease over the weekend. Warning-level
surf and advisory-level seas will be expected Thursday night into
the weekend before trending down over exposed waters and beaches.

For timing, the ecmwf-wave, gfs-wavewatch iii and ensemble mean
solutions all remain in close agreement and depict seas ramping up
quickly around midnight Thursday night to small craft advisory
levels, peaking within the 10 to 14 ft range Friday, then slowly
easing through the weekend. A few of the ensemble solutions are
coming in slightly higher (by a couple of feet) at the northwest
buoys and converge at a peak near 15 ft Thursday night. If the
swell ends up coming in larger than predicted or later, warning-
level surf could continue into Saturday before dropping to
advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores. Surf
should dip below advisory levels Sunday.

Local winds and seas will likely remain below advisory levels
through Friday as the ridge of high pressure north of the state
slightly weakens in response to a cold front that is forecast to
approach the region later in the week, then stall and weaken north
and northwest of the area into the upcoming weekend. Advisory-
level trade winds will return across portions of the waters over
the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state behind this
front.

Prior to the arrival of the large swell expected Thursday night
through the weekend, surf along north and west facing shores will
hold at levels below the advisory criteria Wednesday through
Thursday due to a lingering northwest swell from earlier this week.

Will continue to monitor buoy observations overnight for an
expected small reinforcement out of the northwest (320 deg).

Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through
the week due to moderate to fresh onshore winds persisting. Surf
will begin to build over the weekend as the winds strengthen locally
and upstream of the islands and may near or reach advisory levels
along east facing shores by the end of the weekend and into early
next week.

A slight increase in surf along south facing shores will be possible
Thursday through Saturday due to a long-period swell (190 deg)
associated with recent activity across the southern pacific.

In addition to this southerly swell, wrap from the previously
discussed large west-northwest swell will add to the mix by Friday
at select spots along exposed southern facing beaches.

Hfo watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Discussion... Lau
aviation... Kinel
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 24 mi50 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 73°F 76°F1019.5 hPa
51206 26 mi56 min 77°F7 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI23 mi75 minSSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4SW4SW5SW8SW8SW7W9SW3SE6SW5W4W8E5E11
G14
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1 day agoW5SW7SW4SW5SW8SW4SW5SW7SW6S5SW6SW5S4SE7E11
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2 days agoW7SW5SW5W7SW8SW6SW5SW6SW5SW4NE5W10SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kunio Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:53 AM HST     2.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:08 AM HST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:37 PM HST     2.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:35 PM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:46 PM HST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.11.622.121.50.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.10.81.422.32.42.11.61.10.50.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Honuapo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Honuapo
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:31 AM HST     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM HST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM HST     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:19 PM HST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.81.31.82.12.11.81.30.60.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.411.72.22.42.321.40.80.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.