Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Captain Cook, HI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 6:19PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:07 PM HST (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ123 Big Island Leeward Waters- 922 Pm Hst Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of tonight..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 6 feet. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers late in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 7 feet. SWell south 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Thursday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 7 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 15 knots near south point. Wind waves 6 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 15 knots near south point. Wind waves 5 feet.
Saturday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 5 feet.
Sunday..West of the big island, winds variable less than 10 knots becoming south 10 knots after midnight. NEar south point, east winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 15 knots near south point. Wind waves 5 to 6 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 922 Pm Hst Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface trough will move across the island chain from east to west tonight and Thursday. In its wake, easterly trades will strengthen beginning Thursday afternoon across the eastern islands and Thursday night across the western end of the state, with moderate to strong trades then continuing into the weekend. Winds will likely weaken slightly and shift around to the southeast late Sunday through early next week as an area of low pressure forms several hundred miles northwest of kauai.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Captain Cook, HI
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location: 19.46, -155.96     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 200627
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
827 pm hst Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak surface trough will move slowly westward across the area
through Thursday. Winds will remain light, which will allow local
nighttime land breezes and afternoon sea breezes to develop. An
increase in showers is expected as the trough passes. Trade winds
will return by Friday, and will persist through this weekend. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop northwest of the
islands early next week, which will again cause the winds to
become lighter, and shift to a southeasterly direction. Clouds and
showers may increase over the western end of the state by the
middle of next week.

Discussion
The southern end of weak north to south oriented surface trough
is evident just north of the hawaiian islands appears to be
drifting slowly westward. The close proximity of this feature to
the state is causing the winds to remain light. This is allowing
local nighttime land breezes to develop early this evening over
most of the islands as daytime heating is ending.

Increased moisture is evident east and southeast of the trough
axis. Showers continue to move into the windward big island and
eastern maui early this evening. The presence of this humid air
mass may cause isolated thunderstorms to develop tonight over the
coastal and upslope sections of the windward and interior big
island. The land breezes are expected to keep the remainder of the
state west of maui mostly dry through early Thursday morning.

The forecast guidance indicates the light wind regime will persist
Thursday. As a result, we anticipate local afternoon sea breeze
circulations will develop over most islands. In addition, the
higher moisture values may spread westward, which could aid in the
development of showers over interior and mauka areas, as well as
over some leeward sections. Daytime heating combined with lingering
moisture over the eastern end of the state may allow a few
thunderstorms to develop over the kona slopes and interior
sections of the big island Thursday afternoon. By Thursday
evening, we expect the local nighttime land breezes will begin to
clear out most of the showers from interior and leeward areas of
the state. Isolated showers may continue over some windward facing
slopes Thursday night.

As the surface trough shifts away from the region, we expect
surface high pressure will build north and northeast of the state.

This will tighten the pressure gradient across the region, which
will cause the trade winds to return. In addition, a drier air
mass will also filter in from east to west across the state. This
will result in brief trade showers over some windward and mauka
areas, but most leeward sections of the smaller islands will be
relatively dry this weekend.

Beginning early next week, an area of low pressure is forecast to
develop northwest of the islands. This will cause the pressure
gradient to relax over the region, which will result in light
winds once again. In addition, the winds will shift out of the
east-south or southeast. The forecast models continue to show
some variations in the location of the area of low pressure, as
well the areal coverage of its associated moisture field.

Depending on the proximity of these features to the state, there
could be an increase in rainfall chances over the western end of
the island chain starting around the middle of next week. However,
it is still too early to forecast with any confidence that this
will occur. Regardless of the chances of rain, expect very warm
and muggy conditions to develop starting early next week. Note
that with the lack of any significant volcanic emissions on the
big island, we are not including any volcanic haze in our forecast
for the smaller islands next week.

Aviation
Light to moderate ese low-level flow near the big island and maui
will bring clouds and showers to E and SE facing slopes and
adjacent waters overnight and Thursday as moisture increases.

Periods of MVFR vis cig are expected, with a slight chance of an
overnight thunderstorm. Coverage may increase to the point that
airmet sierra for mountain obscuration becomes warranted.

A light wind regime and a drier air mass from molokai to kauai
will allow overnight land breezes to clear skies over land, with
little in the way of showers over adjacent waters.VFR conditions
will prevail through Thursday morning.

As moisture spreads NW over the smaller islands on Thursday, and
afternoon sea breezes lead to convergence over the islands,
clouds and showers are expected over interior and upslope areas
of all islands. Some of the showers could be briefly heavy,
especially over interior big island.

Marine
A surface trough will move across the island chain from the east
to west tonight and Thursday. In its wake, easterly trades will
strengthen beginning Thursday afternoon across the eastern islands
and Thursday night across the western end of the state. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds will be possible across some of
the typically windy waters around maui and the big island Thursday
afternoon into the weekend. Winds will likely shift around to the
southeast late Sunday through early next week as an area of low
pressure forms several hundred miles northwest of kauai.

Surf will remain below advisory levels along all shores through
early next week. The current south swell will remain near the
summer average tonight, then slowly subside Thursday through
Friday. As trade winds rebuild late Thursday and Friday, rough,
short-period surf will briefly rise above the summer average
along east facing shores, then drop during the weekend. Elsewhere,
no significant swells are expected.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion... Houston
aviation... Birchard
marine... Jelsema


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWHH1 40 mi44 min N 5.1 G 8.9 82°F 83°F1013.1 hPa
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 51 mi56 min S 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 79°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Kawaihae, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kailua / Kona, Keahole Airport, HI13 mi75 minSE 1010.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from HKO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------NE3NW9NW11NW12W86W7W10W8SW8S11S12S11S14SE11SE10SE5
1 day agoE5E3CalmE3NE5E3NE4E4S4SW5S11S11SW10S8W7SW7N7NE6CalmSE6SW5SE8SE6SE8
2 days agoNE4NE5NE5E5Calm4NE9E34SE9S11S15S12S11SW11SW9NE13SW6NE15NE17
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Tide / Current Tables for Kailua Kona, Big Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Kailua Kona, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.