Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nanawale Estates, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:21PM Sunday February 17, 2019 5:01 PM HST (03:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:39PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 345 Pm Hst Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through early Monday morning...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. North swell 8 feet and northwest 6 feet. Isolated showers through the night.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less then 3 feet in the afternoon. North swell 7 feet and northwest 6 feet. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 5 feet and northwest 6 feet. Frequent heavy showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. North swell 4 feet and northwest 5 to 6 feet. Frequent heavy showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northeast swell 4 feet and northwest 5 feet. Frequent showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming east 10 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 feet. Northeast swell 3 feet and northwest 4 to 5 feet. Frequent showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northeast swell 3 feet and northwest 4 feet. Showers likely.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northeast swell 3 feet and northwest 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 10 knots in the morning becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell northwest 3 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 345 Pm Hst Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A low well north of the area will move west at 10 kt through Monday. A trough extending southwest from the low over the coastal waters will move northwest slowly. Another trough is expected to develop over area waters on Tuesday and will bring unsettled weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nanawale Estates, HI
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location: 19.49, -154.81     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 180201
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
401 pm hst Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Showery conditions and north winds will diminish across the
western end of the state into tonight as low pressure moves north
of the islands. Drier conditions and light and variable winds
already in place on the big island will temporarily move to maui
county. A return to wet and unsettled conditions is expected late
Monday through at least Tuesday for the big island and maui
county, where a plume of deep tropical moisture is forecast to
setup. A decrease in shower activity is expected over most of the
state during the second part of the work week.

Discussion
A wet northerly flow remains in place over the western half of
the state this afternoon, while drier conditions and light and
variable winds are holding on the big island. A surface low
centered nearly 375 miles north of the big island is responsible
for the contrasting weather regimes, and a persistent broad upper
level trough parked across the region is maintaining some
instability.

A moist northerly flow with precipitable water (pw) values around
1.25 inches is streaming over kauai, oahu, molokai and to a lesser
degree on maui, where light to moderate showers have deposited
generally less than a half inch of rainfall along windward and
north facing slopes in the past 12 hours. However, a few interior
kauai gages have measured in excess of 2 inches during this time,
with a couple of sites picking up more than 4 inches. While
streams across northern kauai are elevated, the risk of flooding
will remain low, even though showers will persist through much of
the night. Expect similar shower activity to remain focused over
north facing slopes of oahu, molokai, and maui through the
evening, with a marked decrease in showers overnight as the
northerly flow fades.

The big island will remain under a mainly dry, light and variable
wind regime tonight. Expect land breezes to clear out most of the
island during the evening.

Early Monday will serve as a transition period, marking the end
of the recent, extended spell of breezy and cool conditions. The
surface low will move westward and pass a couple hundred miles
north of kauai on Monday. This will slacken the local pressure
gradient and cause winds to go light and variable state-wide. The
persistent upper level trough that has dominated our weather for
more than a week will begin to strengthen once again. This will
lead to increased instability, especially near the core of the
reinvigorated mid to upper level low setting up just west of
kauai. As a result, a few heavy showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm, may develop over the interior of kauai and oahu in
the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear morning conditions will
give way to sea breezes with afternoon clouds and spotty showers.

Wet and unstable conditions will develop over the eastern half of
the state Monday night and persist through at least Tuesday. The
weather feature of concern is a deep plume of tropical moisture
currently sitting 300 to 600 miles east of the big island. As the
surface low to our north drifts westward, this broad zone of
convergent southerly flow with pw values around 2 inches will
spread over the big island and maui. The upper level trough
centered just west of the islands will sharpen, setting up a
region of divergence over the plume of deep moisture. Chances for
heavy, flooding rainfall and thunderstorms look very high for the
big island and maui at this time, while islands to the west of the
plume remain under an unstable land and sea breeze regime. A flash
flood watch has been issued for the big island and maui county
starting at 6 pm hst Monday. Strong winds and winter weather are
expected over the high summits of the big island, though snow
levels will be much higher (11,000 to 12,000 ft) which will likely
eliminate any chance of winter for the haleakala summit on maui. A
wind advisory and winter weather watch has been posted for the big
island summits.

Although this plume of moisture may linger over the far eastern end
of the state into Wednesday, conditions should begin to gradually
improve. Guidance suggests the upper and surface low to the west
ejecting northward with a weak surface ridge nosing in to the
north of islands. Pws may hover around an inch to 1.4 inches near
the big island. Winds could transition back out of the north to
northeast Thursday through Friday in the light to moderate range.

Though confidence is not high in the extended forecast, it looks
like somewhat dry trade wind weather for most of the state with
wetter conditions on windward big island.

Aviation
A complex low pressure system with a primary center about 320 nm
north of the big island will continue to spread clouds and
showers across the smaller islands. A trough of low pressure
extends southward from the low across western maui and is forecast
to move slowly northwestward over the next twenty four hours.

Light and variable surface winds lie to the east of the trough
while locally brisk northwest winds lie to the west of the trough.

A weak sea breeze regime has established itself over the big
island. Cumulus build-ups over the island's interior and leeward
coast are expected to dissipate after sunset. Mostly clear skies
should prevail across the big island by late evening and persist
through most of Monday.

For the smaller islands, clouds and showers will favor island
interiors through early evening then north through northwest
coasts after midnight. Radar indicates MAX tops up to 16 kft
indicating the potential for brief locally heavy downpours.

Airmet sierra is expected to remain necessary over kauai and oahu
through the evening hours.

The radar derived low level winds from the south kauai radar
indicate north winds at summit level up to 25 kt but weakening.

Airmet tango will likely be canceled towards evening.

Marine
A surface low about 320 nm N of big island is forecast to begin
tracking west tonight through Monday. A trough extends southwest
of the low to near maui. There will be fresh to strong north
winds west of the trough and light to moderate variable winds
east of the trough. As the trough shifts west over the next few
days, another trough will develop south of the state and lift
north and over the state on Tuesday. Fresh to strong southeast
winds will spread over the eastern offshore waters, but are not
expected to reach most hawaiian coastal waters. The only exception
is for coastal waters near the big island where they may see
periods of fresh to strong southeast winds.

Local nearshore buoys exposed to the northeast swell continue to
show significant wave heights between 10 and 14 feet with a period
of about 12 seconds. Surf should begin to gradually decline
tonight but will remain at high surf advisory (hsa) levels along
north facing shores and at high surf warning (hsw) levels along
east facing shores (where the threshold is lower) through tonight.

A new west-northwest swell is currently peaking this evening and
will gradually subside through the middle of the week. Models are
hinting at a mid-period east swell building middle of this week.

This may bring advisory level surf to east facing shores later
this week. No significant northwest swells are expected this
week.

A small craft advisory (sca) is in effect through early Monday
morning for most hawaiian waters, mainly for the large seas
associated with the northeast swell, however winds will remain
above SCA levels for the first half of the night across waters
around kauai county. The combination of the west-northwest swell
and the north east swell will likely continue to produce seas
above the 10 feet SCA threshold for most windward waters and
western coastal waters through Monday. So the SCA will likely be
extended later tonight. Seas should drop below the 10 feet
threshold for many areas by Tuesday.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 am hst Monday for north facing shores
of the big island, maui, molokai, oahu, kauai, and niihau.

High surf warning until 6 am hst Monday for east facing shores of
the big island, maui, molokai, oahu, kauai, and niihau.

Flash flood watch from 6 pm hst Monday evening through Tuesday
afternoon for the big island, maui, molokai, lanai, and kahoolawe.

Wind advisory until 6 am hst Wednesday for big island summits.

Winter storm watch from 6 pm hst Monday evening through late
Tuesday night for big island summits.

Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Monday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-
oahu windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi channel-maui
county windward waters-pailolo channel-alenuihaha channel-big
island windward waters-big island southeast waters.

Discussion... Wroe
aviation... Bedal
marine... Kino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 21 mi31 min N 6 G 9.9 73°F 75°F1012.4 hPa
51206 22 mi45 min 77°F12 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI21 mi68 minN 510.00 miOvercast73°F64°F76%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5NW4SW4N4CalmS5SW4SW4SW5SW5SW4CalmSW4SW5CalmE4N8NE9NE10N8NE8N5N6
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W4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW3SW3SW5SW7SW4SW6SW5SW5S3S4NE7N10N9N8N9N9N7
2 days agoNW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:42 AM HST     2.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:09 AM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:52 AM HST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:43 PM HST     1.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:17 PM HST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.92.62.21.610.50.20.10.30.611.31.31.20.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:05 AM HST     2.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:09 AM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM HST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:38 PM HST     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:42 PM HST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.72.92.82.41.81.20.70.40.40.60.91.21.51.51.30.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.30.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.