Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holualoa, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 5:54PM Friday October 19, 2018 4:07 AM HST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ123 Big Island Leeward Waters- 317 Am Hst Fri Oct 19 2018
Today..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 15 knots near south point. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and south 3 feet. Scattered showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West of the big island, north winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. NEar south point, east winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and south 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms and isolated showers.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 15 knots near south point. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and south 4 to 5 feet. Isolated showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered heavy showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 4 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and south 5 feet. Scattered heavy showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Isolated showers after midnight.
Sunday..West of the big island, north winds 10 knots in the morning becoming variable less than 10 knots. NEar south point, east winds 20 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet in the morning. SWell south 5 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Isolated showers through the day.
Sunday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 6 feet. SWell south 5 feet. Isolated showers through the night.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 7 feet. SWell south 4 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots west of the big island...east 20 knots near south point. Wind waves 8 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and south 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 317 Am Hst Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge north of the islands will remain weak today, then gradually strengthen from Saturday into next week. An upper-level disturbance will bring the threat of locally heavy showers and Thunderstorms the next couple of days, especially near the big island.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holualoa, HI
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location: 19.65, -156     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 191349
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
349 am hst Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
A rather light trade wind flow will persist through today before
a gradual strengthening takes hold tonight through Saturday. A
strong upper level disturbance will bring some unsettled weather
to most of the islands over the weekend, but especially targeting
the big island. This unsettled trade wind regime may linger into
next week.

Discussion
The kona area of the big island had an active evening with heavy
showers and thunderstorms, resulting in rainfall totals of up to
1.16 inches recorded at kona airport. Some of the blow-offs
spilled over to the summits of mauna kea and mauna loa with a
light dusting of snow at the higher elevations.

No real change to the reasoning behind the forecast. After the
overnight showers and thunderstorms in the kailua-kona area, we
suspect the weather will get more active especially over the big
island this afternoon and evening. Thus, we dished out a flash
flood watch for the big island that is good through 4 pm hst
Saturday afternoon.

The approaching upper level disturbance will deepen the already
establish upper trough over the islands. The deepened upper trough
will moving eastward tonight starting from kauai. In doing so,
the weather will be getting rather active area-wide with heavy
showers and a outside chance of a thunderstorm just about every
where across the main hawaiian islands. The upper trough pinches
off an upper low over the big island Saturday night and stays
there through Monday. This is per the latest 06z GFS run, which
is now siding with the ECMWF (ec) solution. The new ec run still
maintain its stance of an upper low over the big island through
Monday before moving westward to kauai by Wednesday. The gfs
outlook is much friendly too. The upper low trough continues to
linger around the big island or the eastern part of the island
chain, including maui, through at least Wednesday.

To probably make things look more bleak, the trades could be
carrying some tropical moisture to the islands toward the middle
of next week with the big island getting the brunt of the weather.

Currently, the smaller islands are in o.K. Shape with some minor
trade wind showers. Multilayered clouds cover all the islands but
kauai. The layered clouds are also passing through the big island
from the southwest, grazing the very top of the two summits at
13k feet in the process. There are a couple of thunderstorms, one
located just beyond the coastal waters some 50 mile out from the
kona coast. A couple of thunderstorms are noted 30 miles east of
cape kumukahi of the big island. Radar is just beginning to pick
up higher tops from showers elsewhere outside the big island
premise, a 25k foot top 20 miles south of hawaii kai oahu.

Aviation
Light trade winds will hold through the day and into tonight.

There will also be periods of daytime sea breezes and nighttime
land breezes because of the weak overall flow. Brief MVFR ceilings
and or visibilities will mainly affect windward and mauka
sections around the island chain, especially the big island where
remnant moisture from an old front lingers. Too, statewide
afternoon interior and leeward showers are possible when seas
breezes become established. And a slight chance of thunderstorms
will exist around the island of hawaii as well.

No airmets are currently in effect, though mountain obscurations
are possible with afternoon cloud buildups and showers.

Marine
The arrival of a significant long-period S swell is anticipated
today and tonight, with surf along S facing shores of all islands
building to advisory levels by Saturday. A high surf advisory has
been issued, with the swell expected to remain elevated for several
days. Peak surf heights with this long-lived swell could approach
the south shore high surf warning threshold (15 feet) over the
weekend, and buoy observations will be monitored to fine tune the
forecast. Elsewhere, surf heights will remain below advisory
levels for at least the next several days, although a new short-
period nnw swell is expected today. See the oahu surf discussion
(srdhfo) for additional details.

Light to locally moderate trade winds are expected through tonight,
with a gradual increase in NE trade winds Saturday as high pressure
builds NW of the islands. Winds should remain below small craft
advisory (sca) speeds through Sunday, with moderate to locally fresh
trade winds potentially requiring a SCA for the windier zones
early to mid next week. Uncertainty with this portion of the
forecast is due to forecast models increasing the low-level
pressure gradient as a tropical disturbance passes S of the
islands.

A persistent upper-level trough over the area will develop a cut-
off low this weekend, maintaining unstable conditions that will
bring the threat of locally heavy showers and or thunderstorms,
especially over big island waters.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm hst Monday for
niihau-kauai windward-kauai leeward-oahu south shore-waianae
coast-molokai-lanai makai-kahoolawe-maui leeward west-maui
central valley-windward haleakala-leeward haleakala-kona-south
big island-big island north and east-kohala.

Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for big island.

Lau kinel birchard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWHH1 28 mi38 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 83°F1011 hPa
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 50 mi56 min SW 4.1 G 8 73°F 81°F1012.1 hPa
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 90 mi38 min NNE 7 G 8 77°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Kawaihae, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kailua / Kona, Keahole Airport, HI0 mi15 minENE 310.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from HKO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE8NE6NE4NW8NW9NW10NW8W7SW9S9SW7SW7S6S6SW5SW5N7N3NE5NE4CalmNE4E3
1 day agoE3E53Calm6W7W9W9W8SW8SW9SW9S11S11S9SE7E7SE6E3W5N4N6NW9N8
2 days agoN3NE4E6E5SE7S9S11S12S11S11SW10SW8S7S9--SE4NE5E4CalmCalmE5E5NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kailua Kona, Big Island, Hawaii (2)
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Kailua Kona
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Fri -- 12:48 AM HST     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:05 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:59 AM HST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:26 PM HST     1.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:57 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM HST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.210.80.70.60.70.91.21.51.71.91.91.71.41.10.70.40.30.30.50.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for Napoopoo, Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Napoopoo
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:58 AM HST     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:05 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:09 AM HST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:36 PM HST     1.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:57 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM HST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.21.10.90.70.60.70.81.11.41.71.91.91.71.51.10.80.50.30.30.50.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.