Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wainaku, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday October 19, 2017 4:21 AM HST (14:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:15AMMoonset 6:17PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 328 Am Hst Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 3 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 5 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. North swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. North swell 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. North swell 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 5 to 7 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 5 to 7 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 328 Am Hst Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will remain north of the waters through Friday, then weaken and shift eastward over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wainaku, HI
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location: 19.73, -155.06     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 191410
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
410 am hst Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
Strong and gusty trades will continue today due to a surface high
located far north of the islands. The winds are expected to start
trending down on Friday as the high begins to weaken as it moves
southeastward. Winds will continue to decrease through the
weekend, with light winds expected Sunday and Monday. Clouds and
showers will remain focused over windward and mauka areas through
the weekend, with the trades carrying some brief showers to
leeward sections of the smaller islands through Friday night.

Discussion
The tight pressure gradient south of a 1033 mb surface high
centered near 37n 159w, or about 1100 miles north of honolulu, is
maintaining very strong and gusty trade winds across the main
hawaiian islands early this morning. Water vapor imagery shows
significant subsidence aloft directly above the islands, which is
indicative of stable atmospheric conditions. This is primarily
due to a mid-tropospheric ridge, which is nosing in from the
northwest across the state. Loops of infrared satellite imagery
show scattered to broken low clouds being transported into the
islands by the robust low-level trade wind flow. Radar
reflectivity data indicate scattered showers embedded within many
of these clouds. Some of these low clouds and showers are being
transported over to leeward sections of the smaller islands.

The very strong and gusty trade winds will require the wind
advisory to remain in effect for portions of maui county and the
big island through this afternoon. The strongest winds and gusts
are expected through passes, across ridges and over higher
terrain. The winds on the big island summits remain relatively
light, but we will be monitoring observations from mount haleakala
in case they reach the summit wind advisory criteria later
today.

The forecast guidance indicates the surface high will move toward
the southeast, and gradually weaken from tonight through Friday.

This will likely cause the trades to weaken to breezy speeds by
the end of the work week. Shower bearing clouds transported by the
trades will continue to be focused over windward and mauka areas
through Friday. The low-level flow will continue to carry a few
showers to leeward sections of some of the smaller islands. The
leeward big island will have clouds and a chance of showers each
afternoon and evening, with clearing at night. Rainfall totals are
expected to remain relatively light.

As we head into the weekend, the weakened surface high moves east
to a position far northeast of the state. This will result in
additional weakening of the pressure gradient over the islands
through Saturday night. By Sunday, a front approaching the islands
from northwest will likely cause the winds to shift to a
southeasterly direction. On Monday as the front moves closer, the
winds may turn more southerly. Additional moisture is expected to
spread over the islands in this low-level southeasterly and
southerly flow. As the winds shift, they will also weaken,
allowing for some local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land
breezes to become established. Also, volcanic haze (or "vog"),
will likely spread up from sources on the big island across most
of the state starting later this weekend, and continuing into
early next week.

By Tuesday the front may push down over the western islands, with
cloudy skies and widespread rainfall ahead of and along the
boundary. Since an upper level trough is expected to pass
somewhere north of hawaii from Monday through Tuesday night, there
may also be increased atmospheric instability. These unstable
conditions combined with the enhanced moisture may result in
periods of locally heavy rainfall early next week.

Aviation
Windy conditions will continue today and tonight, then will
weaken through the weekend. Airmet tango is in effect for tempo
moderate low level turbulence across leeward portions of all
islands and will continue through at least tonight.

Scattered showers embedded in the trade winds will stream over the
state. Most clouds and showers will favor the windward and
mountain areas, but some showers will make it to the leeward areas
under the strong trades. Expect primarilyVFR conditions, with
brief MVFR CIGS vis within the passing showers.

Marine
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through Friday
due to strong- to gale-force trade winds and rough seas. Latest
buoy observations around the islands reflect this and are holding
within the 8 to 10 ft range. Even higher seas up to 10 to 13 ft
are likely occurring over the windier channel waters. Small craft
advisory headlines will remain likely through Friday over all
waters due to a combination of winds and seas (10 ft). Gale
conditions are expected to hold over the pailolo and alenuihaha
channels through the day today.

The latest guidance lines up well with the current pattern and
depicts a weakness within the ridge axis developing north of the
islands over the upcoming weekend. This weakness will be in response
to a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest and a weak
surface trough approaching from the east. Trade winds are forecast
to respond and gradually trend down late Saturday through Sunday.

Seas will drop below advisory-levels (10 ft) through this time.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the rest of
the week due to strong trades locally and upstream of the islands.

The high surf advisory for east facing shores will hold through
Friday. A downward trend is expected over the upcoming weekend
due to the aforementioned weakness developing within the ridge and
a weak trough moving into the area from the east.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Friday with
mainly short-period and small south-southeast energy continuing. An
upward trend is expected once again over the upcoming weekend due to
the recent active trend over the southern pacific within hawaii's
swell window near new zealand. Altimetry and ascat data showed a
gale- to storm-force low passing quickly from west to east south
of new zealand this past weekend with seas peaking southeast of
new zealand around 40 ft on Sunday. Wavewatch iii and ecmwf-wave
solutions reflect this and show long-period energy arriving
locally Saturday, peaking Sunday, then slowly trending down early
next week out of 190-200 deg. Surf will possibly reach advisory
levels once again Sunday through Monday.

Up north, trade wind energy wrapping into the typical locations are
expected to continue to generate surf into the weekend. A long-
period north-northwest (340 deg) swell is expected to fill in and
peak tonight through Friday before slowly easing over the
upcoming weekend. Surf heights are expected to remain below
advisory levels through the peak Friday.

A larger reinforcement out of the northwest (330 deg) is forecast to
arrive Sunday and peak Sunday night into Monday. Recent satellite
data showed a good sized area of gale- to storm-force west-northwest
winds focused toward the islands within the 310-320 deg directional
band over the far northwest pacific near the kuril islands.

Altimetry data from a pass directly over this batch of storm-force
winds showed peak seas up to 26 ft today. No major differences
are shown with regard to the swell arrival time Sunday (ecmwf-
wave advertising a slightly later by a few hours). Surf heights
may end up reaching advisory levels along north and west facing
shores through the peak of this swell.

For the long range or outlook through next week, the active pattern
across the northern pacific is expected to continue, which should
correspond to back-to-back north-northwest swell events Tuesday
through midweek. Additionally, a long-period westerly swell from
typhoon lan in the far western pacific can't be ruled out by
midweek. More on the details in later packages as conditions
evolve.

Fire weather
The kbdi at honolulu remains at 576, which is still below the 600
critical threshold. With minimal rainfall expected at hnl over
the next several days, the kbdi will continue to slowly climb.

Gusty trade winds are expected to continue with low afternoon
relative humidity. While the gusty winds and low relative
humidity may meet the red flag warning criteria, the kbdi is
currently the limiting factor. That being said, some leeward areas
across the state may already be experiencing critically dry
conditions. The combination of dry and windy weather each
afternoon is expected to remain through the end of the work week,
before winds ease and humidities begin to rise somewhat this
weekend.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm hst Friday for east facing shores
of kauai, oahu, molokai, maui, the big island.

Wind advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for lanai-kahoolawe-
big island north and east-kohala.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst Friday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-
oahu windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi channel-maui
county windward waters-maui county leeward waters-maalaea bay-
big island windward waters-big island leeward waters-big island
southeast waters.

Gale warning until 6 pm hst this evening for the pailolo and
alenuihaha channels.

Discussion fire weather... Houston
aviation... Foster
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 0 mi52 min NW 8 G 9.9 75°F 79°F1018 hPa
51206 6 mi55 min 80°F7 ft
KWHH1 46 mi52 min ESE 5.1 G 8.9 79°F 80°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI1 mi29 minW 610.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3NW7W5NW8N9N6N9N8NE7
G18
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W6W7SW4SW43CalmW8CalmW6
1 day agoNE8NE10NE8E11N7N10NE7N11NE8
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2 days agoCalmE6NE7NE4N8NE9NE15NE11NE11N8NE8
G29
W8CalmW43N5SE6SE9N5W6W8W4CalmNE8

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kunio Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
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Thu -- 02:53 AM HST     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM HST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:12 AM HST     New Moon
Thu -- 02:40 PM HST     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:17 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:52 PM HST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.12.42.62.421.40.90.60.40.60.91.41.82.12.221.510.40.1-0.10.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kawaihae, Big Island, Hawaii
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Kawaihae
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:49 AM HST     2.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:19 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM HST     New Moon
Thu -- 10:04 AM HST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM HST     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:56 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:20 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:46 PM HST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.21.722.11.91.61.10.60.30.20.30.60.91.31.51.61.41.10.70.30-0.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.