Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Puako, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 5:55PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:00 AM HST (20:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ121 Alenuihaha Channel- 945 Am Hst Thu Oct 18 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers late in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers in the evening. Scattered showers after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. SWell south 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell north 5 feet and south 3 feet. Isolated showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell north 5 feet and south 4 feet. Isolated showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered heavy showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Mixed swell north 5 feet and south 4 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms and isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Mixed swell north 3 to 4 feet and south 4 feet. Isolated showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Mixed swell north 3 feet and south 4 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 945 Am Hst Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge north of the islands will weaken through Friday as a front passes to the north of the area. Surface high pressure will gradually build northwest of the islands from this weekend into early next week. An upper-level trough moving across the region from Friday through this weekend may result in locally heavy downpours and Thunderstorms. A large out of season south swell will spread across the area from Friday through this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puako, HI
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location: 20.04, -155.83     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 181334
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
334 am hst Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Light to moderate trades will continue through the remainder of
the work week. The trades will then strengthen to moderate levels
over the weekend and possibly reach locally breezy levels next
week as high pressure builds north of the islands. Clouds and
showers associated with and old front will linger near the big
island and maui through the weekend, keeping a showery trade wind
pattern in place. Meanwhile, drier conditions should prevail
across the western half of the state with mainly windward and
mauka showers through Saturday, with a more showery trade wind
pattern expected Sunday through early next week. A disturbance
aloft will bring unstable conditions and the potential for heavy
rain and thunderstorms to maui and the big island Friday night
through Sunday as well, which could continue into early next week.

Discussion
Currently at the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure is
centered around 500 miles north of honolulu, and is driving light
to moderate trade winds across the island chain early this
morning. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front is located around 450
miles northwest of kauai. Aloft, an upper level trough is evident
in water vapor imagery over kauai, with a sharper and more potent
shortwave trough digging southward around 400 miles north-
northwest of kauai. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the state, with cloud cover most
prevalent over windward sections of oahu eastward to the big
island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward
areas, with shower coverage the highest across maui county and
the big island. A few showers are also making the trip over the
terrain into leeward areas of the smaller islands, with a few
showers near the coast of leeward big island as well. Main short
term concern revolves around the potential for some locally heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms associated with a digging upper level
trough over the weekend.

The ridge of high pressure north of the state will continue to
erode over the next couple of days as a cold front passes by well
to the north of the island chain. Light to moderate trades are
expected to prevail today, then ease slightly tonight through
Friday night with local land and sea breezes possible in some of
the more sheltered areas. A ridge of high pressure will then
become re-established north of the state over the weekend,
bringing a return of moderate trade winds, with the trades
strengthening to moderate and locally breezy levels early next
week.

As for sensible weather details, a plume of deep moisture
associated with the remnants of an old front, will linger over the
big island through the weekend and possibly into early next week.

In the near term through Friday, showery trade wind weather is
expected to persist over the big island, with drier trade wind
weather expected across the smaller islands. Clouds and showers
will favor windward and mauka areas, but we should see some
interior and leeward shower development as a result of the
weakening trades, particularly on Friday. Additionally, with the
airmass remaining unstable over the big island, will keep a
slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon.

The models are advertising quite a different scenario than they
were 24 hours ago during the weekend and into early next week.

Both the GFS and ECMWF now show a sharp upper trough digging
southward over the western islands Friday night, then closing off
over the central and eastern islands Saturday through Sunday. The
models to differing degrees, then show the weakness aloft
lingering over on in the vicinity of the island chain through the
first half of next week.

Deep moisture associated with the frontal remnants is expected to
linger over the eastern end of the state through the middle of
next week, so this should keep a showery trade wind pattern in
place here. Across the western islands the moisture won't be quite
as deep through Saturday night, so expect the shower coverage to
not be as great here at least initially. This will likely change
on Sunday as the deeper moisture begins to lift back across
western islands, making for a more showery trade wind pattern
which could continue through the middle of next week.

The upper trough low overhead could also create a fairly unstable
airmass Friday night through Sunday, particularly across maui
county and the big island. The main hazards would likely be heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms. We'll need to monitor model trends
closely over the next couple days however, as there is the
potential that we could see some severe weather particularly
Saturday afternoon and evening as the coldest air aloft rotates
overhead. At this time the main severe weather threats, if they
materialize, appear to be strong gusty winds and hail.

Aviation
Light to occasionally moderate trade winds will continue across
the island chain through the day. Brief to tempo MVFR conditions
will mainly affect windward and mauka sections over all isles.

This will especially be the case over the big island, and, to a
lesser extent, maui and molokai. Low level remnant moisture from
an old front will affect those isles. ElsewhereVFR will hold
sway.

An airmet for mountain obscuration remains in effect for the
windward areas of the big island.

Marine
Trade winds are forecast to remain weak through Friday night.

The trades may gradually strengthen from Saturday into early next
week. The current forecast does not have small craft advisory
(sca) conditions over any of the coastal waters or channels
through Sunday night. SCA conditions may develop across the
typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of maui county and
the big island early next week.

Unstable atmospheric conditions are forecast to develop over
parts of the state toward the end of the work week. This may
cause locally heavy downpours, and allow thunderstorms to form
across some areas from Friday night into this weekend. Mariners
should monitor future weather forecasts as this situation evolves.

The current north-northwest swell is gradually declining early
this morning. Therefore, the high surf advisory (hsa) has been
cancelled. The north-northwest swell will continue to slowly
subside through this weekend. The weak trades will cause surf to
slowly decrease along most east facing shores. However, some east
facing shores with a northerly exposure may continue to see small
breakers from the north-northwest swell energy during the next
couple of days.

A new long-period south swell arriving Friday, is expected to
peak this weekend. Based on the latest guidance, surf will likely
reach the hsa criteria along south facing shores starting Saturday.

There is also a possibility surf may approach the high surf
warning threshold along south facing shores this weekend, before
the swell begins to gradually decline early next week.

See the latest collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast for
oahu (srdhfo), which was updated earlier Wednesday afternoon, for
more details on swells and surf.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion... Jelsema
aviation... Kinel
marine... Houston


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWHH1 0 mi31 min WNW 7 G 8
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 46 mi43 min NW 6 G 8 74°F 81°F1015.6 hPa
51206 49 mi34 min 80°F6 ft
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 68 mi31 min NW 6 G 8.9

Wind History for Kawaihae, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bradshaw Army Air Field / Hawaii, HI23 mi4.1 hrsSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds52°F50°F94%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from HSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmSW3------------W4W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE4
1 day agoSE4CalmS3CalmW7W8W7W8W8W8W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE3SE3SE3----
2 days agoSE4CalmW3W4W6W7W6W9W5W7W3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE4SE3CalmSE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Kawaihae, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kailua Kona, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.