Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Makena, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 6:21PM Sunday September 23, 2018 7:21 PM HST (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 5:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 330 Pm Hst Sun Sep 23 2018
Tonight..North winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots veering southwest in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 15 knots in the morning becoming variable less than 10 knots, then becoming north 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
PHZ100 330 Pm Hst Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. An area of low pressure far northwest of kauai will gradually move northeast and east through the middle of the week. Surface winds will be shifting to the southeast and become more southerly beginning Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Makena, HI
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location: 20.6, -156.6     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 240139
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
339 pm hst Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure northwest of kauai will lift to the northeast over
the next couple of days, bringing a weakening trough and
increasing moisture towards the western islands. Showers will
increase mainly over the western islands Monday night through
Tuesday. Weak, south winds and higher than normal dewpoints will
continue muggy conditions into the middle of the week.

Discussion
No major changes since this morning. Have made some tweaks to the
pop sky wx grids through Tuesday night, but no significant changes
to the flavor of the forecast.

The morning analysis puts the surface low of 1007 mb about 675
miles northwest of kauai, and shifts the surface ridge to the
northeast of the smaller islands. Wind speeds around the islands
have been light, with a south to southeast flow that can also be
noted in the low cloud movements on satellite. Satellite also
shows an abundance of clouds to the northwest of the kauai coastal
waters in association with the low and its associated trough. Some
isolated thunderstorms have been noted about 250 miles northwest
of kauai.

The afternoon soundings from lihue and hilo show lower
precipitable water (pw) values than the overnight soundings. Lihue
came in at 1.49 which is near normal for september, while hilo had
1.2 inches which is about 1 standard deviation on the dry side.

The big question over the next 36 to 48 hours is how much moisture
will reach kauai and the surrounding area.

The GFS remains the most aggressive with the latest run have more
than 2 inches of pw reaching kauai by Tuesday morning. The ecmwf
is still on the lower side, but does have some 2 inch values
reaching parts of the garden isle. Both models show 500 and 700
temperatures remaining near normal throughout, so will lack the
instability that would favor heavy rain or thunderstorms. That
being said, having noted thunderstorms in the area closer to the
low, will have to keep an eye on future runs.

The longer time range continues to show discrepancies in the
model runs. The ECMWF continues to build high pressure in to the
northwest behind the trough, returning a more typical trade wind
flow by the end of the work week. The GFS holds onto the trough
for a little longer, which would delay the onset of trades a day
or two.

Dewpoints have reached 70+ degrees at several reporting sites
across the state, and with the lighter winds, its increasingly
likely to feel a bit on the muggy side. Expect dewpoints to
increase a couple degrees Monday night and Tuesday, and linger in
the low to mid 70s through much of the work week. With winds
remaining on the light side, muggy conditions will continue. As
winds possibly pick up at the end of the week, we could see some
relief.

Aviation
Winds will continue to veer to the southeast across the state
tonight as a low pressure trough slowly approaches from the west.

Land and sea breezes will develop across many areas over the next
few nights afternoons.

Clouds and passing showers will remain mostly confined to the
windward and mauka areas tonight, with isolated brief MVFR
conditions possible. Some clouds and a few showers will linger
over interior leeward areas with the sea breeze into this
evening. Otherwise,VFR conditions will prevail. As the trough
edges closer to the state tonight, clouds and showers will begin
to increase over and around kauai with isol-sct MVFR conditions
at times.

No airmets are currently in effect, or expected through tonight.

Marine
An area of low pressure far northwest of kauai will continue to
move slowly northeast and east through the middle of the week.

In response, surface winds have been weakening and shifting
southeasterly. They will then become more southerly by Monday
night through Wednesday. This will also bring an increase in
showers, especially across the western coastal waters throughout
the week.

Surf will remain below advisory levels along all shores through the
middle of the week. Rough, short-period surf along east facing
shores will gradually decline throughout the work week as the
winds ease and shift. A north-northwest swell is expected late
this week, which may increase surf to near the advisory level
along north facing shores. Small, long-period southwest and south
swells will give surf along south facing shores a small boost
throughout the week, but remain well below advisory level.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion... M ballard
aviation... Ts
marine... Kinel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 22 mi40 min NE 15 G 18 79°F 1010.7 hPa
51213 24 mi52 min 83°F3 ft
51205 30 mi52 min 80°F5 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 80 mi52 min 80°F5 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lanai City, Lanai Airport, HI22 mi26 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1011.5 hPa
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI23 mi28 minENE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1011 hPa

Wind History from HNY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE12E6SE7NE4N8N6N8NE7NE10NE7E5E5S3W7W64W96W8W9W6NE10NE11
1 day agoN12N10--NE5NE4NE4E4NE4CalmNE5CalmNE7NE5CalmSE7E8
G14
3W9NW9NE13NE17NE15NE16NE14
2 days agoNE9N9N8NE4SE3N5CalmE4E3----N3CalmW5N6NW8NW6SW8456NW6N11NE13

Tide / Current Tables for Kuheia Bay, Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.