Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Makena, HI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday June 20, 2019 3:10 AM HST (13:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 915 Pm Hst Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 knots becoming southwest 10 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 10 knots veering south in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
PHZ100 915 Pm Hst Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Ridge of high pressure will shift southward into the area Friday through the weekend as low pressure develops along a trough to the northwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Makena, HI
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location: 20.6, -156.6     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 200713 cca
afdhfo
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service honolulu hi
913 pm hst Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will focus showers mainly across windward
areas through Thursday. Winds will weaken and shift to the
southeast from Friday through the weekend, leading to daytime sea
breezes, spotty interior showers, and more muggy conditions. Trade
winds may try and return early next week, but will likely remain
lighter than normal for early summer.

Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1033 mb high is centered around 1800
miles northeast of honolulu, while a weak surface trough remains
nearly stationary several hundred miles northwest of kauai. Aloft,
upper level ridging remains over the islands, with a broad upper
level trough northwest of the state. Infrared satellite imagery
shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a few
pockets of enhanced cloud cover over windward slopes and leeward
sections of the big island. Radar imagery shows very little shower
activity, with nothing more than isolated coverage. Main short
term concerns revolve around the diminishing trades and rainfall
chances over the next couple days.

Model solutions are in good agreement showing the upper level
trough northwest of the islands, amplifying and cutting off into
a closed upper low over the next couple days. This is expected to
result in the surface trough northwest of the islands sharpening
up with a surface low developing along the trough. Locally, this
will lead to the winds shifting around to the southeast and
decreasing through the rest of the work week and over the
upcoming weekend. The trades appear to hold on through Thursday at
moderate strength, then a sea and land breeze pattern will likely
develop in the shadow of the islands Friday through the weekend.

There is some disagreement regarding the potential return of trade
winds next week, with the ECMWF suggesting the trades may
redevelop by Monday, while the GFS keeps a lighter wind regime in
place through the middle of next week. Regardless of which model
is followed, it appears that winds will remain lighter than normal
through the middle of next week as the semi-permanent surface
trough continues to meander several hundred miles northwest of
the state.

As for weather details, expect a fairly dry trade wind pattern to
hold in place tonight and Thursday, with a few showers mainly
affecting windward and mauka areas. As the trades diminish and
the low level boundary layer flow shifts around to the southeast,
speed convergence could result in a few more showers Thursday
night and Friday. Showers are expected to favor windward and mauka
areas and locations near the coast Thursday night and Friday
morning, and interior and leeward areas during the afternoon
hours Friday. A fairly dry pattern should then hold in place
Friday night through the weekend, with a few showers possible near
the coast at night and a few showers developing over the island
interiors each afternoon. Details become a bit more unclear next
week, but with the lighter wind regime and potential for returning
trades, showers should favor windward and mauka areas during the
day and interior and leeward areas during the afternoon and
evening hours. No significant rainfall is expected through the
forecast period.

Aviation
A 1033 mb surface high will continue to sit stagnant far to the
northeast of the state. This will allow for moderate easterly
trade winds to persist across the islands. The atmosphere will
remain mostly dry and mostly stable. Limited shower activity will
be focused along windward slopes and coasts. Partial clearing
expected along leeward portions of the big island overnight.

No airmets currently in effect or anticipated at this time.

Marine
Fresh to strong trades will hold tonight, then begin to weaken
Thursday through Friday as the ridge shifts southward into the
area in response to low pressure developing along an old frontal
boundary several hundred nautical miles northwest of kauai. This
transition will allow the low-level flow to shift out of the
southeast direction, likely giving way to localized land and sea
breeze conditions near the coasts Friday through the weekend.

Forecast confidence begins to lower early next week due to
notable model differences. The ECMWF depicts a return of moderate
to fresh trades, while the GFS continues to show the light wind
regime.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through early
next week with mainly a combination of short-period southeast
trade wind energy and overlapping background southerly swells
moving through.

For the long range, guidance is advertising a gale- to storm-
force low passing south to southeast of new zealand over the
upcoming weekend with seas forecast to reach the 35 to 45 ft
range. If this scenario materializes, a decent south swell will
become a possibility locally at the end of the month through the
first couple days in july.

Small to moderate short-period surf will hold along east facing
shores through Thursday, then trend down Friday as the trades
ease. An upward trend, however, is anticipated over the weekend as
a moderate period (10-12 seconds) northeast swell from a pocket
of strong breezes that has setup within the 040-060 degree band
relative to the islands moves through. Heights should remain
below the advisory level for east facing shores through the peak
this weekend.

Fire weather
Fuel conditions are drier than normal, with the keetch-byram
drought index (kbdi) already over the red flag warning threshold
of 600. Conditions at hnl reached red flag criteria briefly today,
sustained winds of 20+ mph and relative humidity values less than
or equal to 45 percent, but did not last for the required 2
consecutive hours. While we're still not expected to reach all
the red flag thresholds on Thursday (wind will likely be the
limiting factor), conditions will be dry and somewhat gusty, which
bring increased fire danger. Decreasing winds and increasing rh
vales from Friday onward will diminish those concerns a bit.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Thursday for pailolo channel-
alenuihaha channel-big island leeward waters-big island
southeast waters.

Discussion... Jelsema
aviation... Bedal
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 22 mi59 min NE 7 G 9.9 77°F 1014.7 hPa
51213 24 mi41 min 82°F4 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 80 mi41 min 79°F5 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lanai City, Lanai Airport, HI22 mi75 minNE 510.00 miOvercast70°F69°F97%1014.3 hPa
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI23 mi77 minENE 710.00 miOvercast77°F64°F66%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HNY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6N9E8E6E5W4SW4W7W55--N7NE21NE18NE14NE13NE14--NE4NE7NE4NE4NE6N9
2 days agoE4NE3CalmNE7N6W5NW6--W9SW11W11SW10W11NW10NW6NW4N3CalmCalmW4W6NW5CalmW5

Tide / Current Tables for Kuheia Bay, Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii
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Kuheia Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM HST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:59 AM HST     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:45 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:45 AM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM HST     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.30.50.60.70.60.50.30.10.10.20.40.81.21.722.22.221.61.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Smuggler Cove, Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii
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Smuggler Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:38 AM HST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM HST     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:57 AM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 PM HST     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.30.50.70.70.60.50.30.10.10.20.40.81.21.722.22.221.61.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.