Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keokea, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:56PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 6:01 AM HST (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:45PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 327 Am Hst Tue Oct 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through early Thursday morning...
Today..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. SWell south 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Isolated showers in the evening.
Wednesday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
PHZ100 327 Am Hst Tue Oct 23 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge north of the islands will maintain trade winds through the end of the work week. The trades are expected to be locally strong into mid-week due to a weak surface trough passing south of the islands.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keokea, HI
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location: 20.67, -156.34     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 231403
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
403 am hst Tue oct 23 2018

Synopsis
A surface ridge north of the islands will maintain locally breezy
trade winds into mid-week. A rather tranquil trade wind weather
pattern is also expected to persist across most of the state this
week. However, enhanced moisture just upstream of the eastern end
of the state is spreading toward the big island. As a result,
showers are expected to increase along the windward sides of the
big island and maui starting tonight. The trade winds will weaken
slightly on Thursday and Friday, followed by stronger trades on
Saturday. The flow will begin to turn southeasterly late Sunday
and Monday, with the potential for much wetter conditions
developing across much of the island chain early next week.

Discussion
A 1020 mb surface high is centered near 27n 170w, or about 480
miles east of midway atoll. A surface ridge extends from this
feature through a point about 450 miles north of honolulu.

Elsewhere, a weak elongated surface trough is evident around 370
miles southeast of hilo. The hawaiian islands remain sandwiched
between these systems, which is producing a relatively tight
pressure gradient across the region early this morning. As a
result, locally breezy trade winds persist across the state.

Aloft, weak middle to upper tropospheric troughing remains just
east of the big island. The low-level trade wind inversion has
become established around 6 or 7 thousand feet according to the
morning balloon soundings at hilo and lihue. But it appears to be
relatively weak.

A lingering area of slightly enhanced moisture is evident just
northeast of maui. There is also a large area of enhanced
moisture about 50 or 60 miles east and southeast of the big
island. Relatively dry air is over the western end of the state.

Low clouds and showers continue to move down across the windward
waters adjacent to maui county this morning. These clouds and
showers are affecting windward sections of maui and molokai.

Additional low clouds and showers are moving into the the puna and
hilo districts of the big island. A few low clouds with embedded
isolated showers have also been moving into the windward sides of
oahu, while kauai appears to be rather dry at the moment.

The latest output from the forecast models continues to show the
surface ridge will remain north of the state into mid-week before
it begins to weaken. At the same time, the weak surface trough
southeast of the big island will move slowly westward. This will
likely keep locally breezy trade winds in place through Wednesday.

The models also appear to show a middle tropospheric ridge nosing
in from the west over the islands during the next couple of days.

This may lead to slightly more stable atmospheric conditions,
with the trade wind inversion continuing to become a little
better defined. However, the area of enhanced moisture just
upstream of the big island, including along the northern fringes
of the weak surface trough described above, will likely spread
across parts of the state later today and tonight. There remains
some uncertainty in how much of this moisture will reach the
smaller islands. The latest forecast indicates that low clouds
and showers will increase over the windward big island, and
possibly maui, from tonight into Wednesday.

As the current ridge north of the region weakens later this week,
the trades will become somewhat lighter on Thursday and Friday.

At the same time, a new subtropical ridge is expected to develop
far northwest and north of the state behind a weakening front that
will push down from the north-northwest. The models do not appear
to bring this frontal boundary into the islands, but low-level
moisture convergence associated with the frontal remnants may get
close to kauai this weekend. The higher pressure to the north of
the area will cause the trades to strengthen on Saturday.

A significant change in the weather pattern appears to be likely
starting later this weekend. The surface high north of the islands
will move rapidly eastward on Sunday. At the same time, the
forecast models indicate a large low pressure area will likely
develop far northwest of the state. This will result in the
background flow across the region becoming southeasterly from
late Sunday into Monday. This scenario would allow the deep
tropical moisture located south and southeast of the state to
eventually reach the islands. It is still too early to know
exactly how this potentially wetter weather pattern may affect the
islands early next week. For now, we believe the low-level
convergence will initially increase near kauai therefore,
rainfall chances are highest there on Monday. The wet weather
then appears to spread across most of the rest of the state
Monday night and Tuesday.

Aviation
A high pressure ridge north of the islands will continue to
provide moderate trade winds to the area for the next couple of
days. Passing low clouds and showers carried by the winds will
affect mainly windward and mountain areas, bringing brief MVFR
ceiling. OtherwiseVFR conditions are expected.

No airmet currently is in effect. Airmet tango may be posted
later today or Wednesday as trade winds may strengthen enough for
low-level mechanical turbulence to develop over mountains and
south through west sections of all islands

Marine
A small craft advisory remains in effect for the windier areas
near maui and the big island through Wednesday night. The pressure
gradient over the islands should weaken Wednesday night as the
weak trough passing south of the region weakens.

The high surf advisory for south facing shores has been extended
through Wednesday afternoon. South swell is expected to decline
today and tonight, with marginal advisory level surf expected
today. However, a new long-period south-southwest swell is
expected to arrive Wednesday, which could keep surf at advisory
levels along south facing shores through Wednesday afternoon. A
reinforcing south swell arriving Friday will likely keep surf
elevated along south facing shores as we head into the weekend.

Surf along remaining shores is expected to remain below advisory
levels through the end of the work week. Rough surf along east
facing shores will increase slightly during the next few days due
to the locally strong trade winds. A moderate north-northwest
swell arriving today is expected to peak tonight or Wednesday.

This swell will slowly decline Wednesday night. A reinforcing
north-northwest swell arriving Thursday will maintain moderate
surf along most north and west facing shores through early
Saturday. A new north-northwest swell arriving late Saturday will
likely cause surf to build along most north and west facing shores
from Saturday night through Sunday.

See the latest collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast
for oahu (srdhfo) for additional details on surf and swells.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm hst Wednesday evening for south
facing shores of all hawaiian islands.

Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Thursday for maalaea bay-
pailolo channel-alenuihaha channel-big island leeward waters-big
island southeast waters.

Discussion... Houston
aviation... Hui
marine... Powell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 17 mi32 min NNE 8.9 G 11 78°F 1013.9 hPa
51205 24 mi32 min 81°F5 ft
51213 36 mi32 min 82°F5 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 88 mi32 min 80°F6 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI17 mi68 minENE 610.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Makena, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Makena
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:46 AM HST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:24 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:55 AM HST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:36 PM HST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.51.71.71.61.310.70.50.40.50.711.21.41.41.310.70.30.10.10.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii)
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Kihei
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:21 AM HST     2.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:24 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:14 AM HST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM HST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:55 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:09 PM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.61.92.12.11.81.40.90.60.40.40.711.31.61.81.71.51.10.60.20.10.20.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.