Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manele, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:17PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:42 AM HST (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ118 Maui County Leeward Waters- 925 Pm Hst Wed Jan 23 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 7 feet and east 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 knots backing northwest in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 6 feet and east 4 feet.
Thursday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming north 10 knots after midnight. Wind waves 3 feet in the evening then 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 5 feet and east 4 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Friday..North winds 10 knots rising to 20 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 6 feet and east 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers in the morning.
Friday night..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less then 4 feet after midnight. Northwest swell 6 feet and east 3 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet and east 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet and east 3 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 4 to 5 feet and east 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 4 to 5 feet and east 3 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 925 Pm Hst Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A cold front will approach through the day Thursday, then move down the island chain Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build north of the state over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manele, HI
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location: 20.67, -157.6     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 240643
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
830 pm hst Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A ridge will remain nearly stationary near kauai through Thursday,
with fair weather and light to gentle winds over the area. A front
from the northwest will reach kauai on Friday, then continue
southeast, past the big island by late Saturday, bringing clouds and
showers.

Discussion
Fair weather prevails across the state this evening, as airmass
remains dry and somewhat stable under an upper level ridge. There is
a persistent surface ridge near kauai, bringing gentle easterly
trade winds to the big island and maui, and light southeast winds
for the western islands. Latest satellite imagery revealed some high
clouds over maui county, with some low clouds and showers carried
by the easterly winds reaching windward big island and maui.

Overall, the rather tranquil weather will continue through rest of
the evening into early Thursday morning.

The islands should experience more fair weather on Thursday, as
little changes are expected to the weather features in the island
vicinity. Therefore, light east to southeast background winds will
persist, with afternoon clouds and possibly some showers over the
islands under the sea breezes and some clearing overnight under the
land breezes. Some low clouds carried by the easterly winds will
reach windward big island and maui, bringing some showers. Rainfall
amounts will be limited as airmass will stay dry and stable.

A front from the northwest will reach kauai on Friday, then
continuing southeast down the island chain and advancing pass the
big island by Saturday night. A band of showery low clouds along the
front will bring widespread showers to windward areas and even
reaching leeward areas of the smaller islands as well, but the
clouds will be too shallow to bring much rain to the leeward areas.

A surface high behind the front will provide breezy northeast winds
and cooler temperatures over the area. Latest forecast solutions do
differ on how long the breezy weather will last, as GFS now has the
winds turning more east and weaker by Sunday while the older ecmwf
has much stronger northerly winds.

Aviation
A surface ridge just north of the hawaiian islands will continue
to produce light and variable winds with land and sea breezes in
a stable atmosphere.VFR conditions remain in the forecast.

Marine
Light to moderate east to southeast winds will continue through
Thursday as a cold front approaches. Pockets of moderate to fresh
breezes will be likely through this time in the typically windier
areas with southeast winds (hamakua coast windward maui south point
waters). Light winds with overnight land and daytime sea breeze
conditions near the coasts will prevail over the oahu and kauai
waters. Winds will quickly shift out of the north and increase into
the fresh to strong category through the day Friday as the cold
front advances down the island chain. A more typical trade wind
pattern will return over the weekend as high pressure builds north
of the state. Small craft advisory conditions due to a combination
of strong winds following the front and a reinforcing large swell
expected Thursday night through Friday will likely continue for
exposed waters through Saturday. Forecast uncertainty increases
Sunday into early next week due to model differences shown. The
ecmwf shows moderate northerly winds filling back in, while the gfs
depicts light to moderate trades.

Surf along north and west facing shores came up through the day due
to a large west-northwest (300 deg) swell that filled in from a
distant storm across the northwest pacific earlier in the week.

Although the swell ended up coming in later than predicted, it is
converging near the predicted peak this evening at the buoys. This
source will hold into Thursday, then slowly begin to lower late
Thursday through Friday.

A similar long-period reinforcement out of the same direction (300-
310 deg) is expected Thursday night through Friday from a large
swath of gale- to storm-force winds focused at the islands from the
northwest pacific Tuesday Tuesday night. Altimetry data showed seas
associated with this source reaching the 30-40 ft range within 1500
nm of the islands Tuesday near the head of the fetch. Guidance is
picking up on this well, but depicting different arrival times
(ecmwf-wave later than GFS wavewatch iii). Will make small
adjustments to the official forecast to account for this
uncertainty. A gradual downward trend is expected through the
weekend.

The current small craft and high surf advisories will be extended
through Friday night due to a combination of the reinforcing swell
and strong northerly winds expected behind the front Friday. Surf
will near warning levels around the peak once again Thursday night
into Friday along exposed north and west facing shores, especially
for kauai.

Surf along east facing shores will remain up through Friday despite
the lighter winds locally. This groundswell out of 080-090 deg is
from a recent pocket of fresh to strong winds upstream of the state
that has filled in. This source should gradually begin to fade over
the weekend. Guidance is also depicting a moderate to large short
period north-northeast (020 deg) swell filling over the weekend from
a large swath of nearby northerly winds following the front (highest
likely over the eastern end of the state this weekend).

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm hst Thursday for north and west facing
shores of niihau, kauai, oahu and molokai, north facing shores of
maui and west facing shores of the big island of hawaii.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm Thursday for waters around kauai,
and oahu windward waters, maui county windward waters and the big
island windward waters.

Discussion... Hui
aviation... Bohlin
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51213 32 mi42 min 78°F5 ft
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 46 mi42 min N 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 76°F1017.6 hPa (-0.3)
51211 47 mi72 min 76°F2 ft

Wind History for Honolulu, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lanai City, Lanai Airport, HI35 mi46 minno data10.00 mi68°F66°F93%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from HNY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE5E4NE5E6E6--N7N7N7NE10S8W8SW7W7N7NE9E5E6S4NE3N4----
1 day agoNE7E5E4E5N5NW10N8
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NE7S10--SW10W10W106NE13NE12SE6SE5----N5N8--Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Kaumalapau, Lanai Island, Hawaii
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Kaumalapau
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:42 AM HST     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:48 PM HST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM HST     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:23 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.611.522.22.32.11.71.20.70.30-00.10.40.711.21.31.10.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kolo, Molokai Island, Hawaii
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Kolo
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:45 AM HST     2.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:11 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:46 PM HST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM HST     1.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:24 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.511.41.822.11.91.61.10.70.30-00.10.30.60.911.110.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.