Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wailea, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 5:59PM Thursday October 18, 2018 4:06 PM HST (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 320 Pm Hst Thu Oct 18 2018
Tonight..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered heavy showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 6 feet. SWell south 3 feet.
PHZ100 320 Pm Hst Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge north of the islands will weaken through Friday as a front passes to the north of the area, then strengthen again on Saturday into next week. An upper level trough will move across the region from Friday and Saturday may result in locally heavy downpours and Thunderstorms. A large out of season south swell will spread across the area from Friday night through this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wailea, HI
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location: 20.7, -156.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 190144
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
344 pm hst Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Gentle to locally moderate trade winds will persist through the
next couple of days. Showers will remain focused across windward
slopes, while instability near the big island will likely trigger
leeward and interior showers and a few thunderstorms through this
afternoon. An upper level trough slowly passing overhead from
west to east on Friday through Sunday will produce unstable
conditions and bring a risk of thunderstorms to much of the
island chain. Trade winds will rebuild on Sunday and early next
week, though unstable conditions may linger over portions of the
state.

Discussion
A gentle to locally moderate trade wind flow remains in place,
along with moderately unstable conditions around the big island.

A slow-moving front sitting less than 500 miles north of kauai
has weakened the local pressure gradient and resulting trade
winds. A nearly stationary mid- to upper-level trough remains
overhead, sending high clouds over the eastern half of the state
and producing some instability. While low level ridging continues
to be strong enough to maintain modest stability over the western
half of the state, a stubborn pocket of moisture with precipitable
water values of 1.75 to 2 inches is contributing to instability
around the big island. This will continue fuel a diminishing
amount of showers and thunderstorms over interior big island
through the remainder of the afternoon. The rest of the state will
experience mainly windward showers through the night.

On Friday, trades will remain somewhat weak, and unstable
conditions will develop over much of the state. A shortwave aloft,
currently located about 500 miles northwest of kauai, will drop
into the mid- to upper-level trough already in place over the
islands. As the shortwave trough passes over the western end of
the state, 500 mb temps will approach -10c, but a lack of deep
moisture will likely inhibit thunderstorms from kauai to maui.

These islands will see continued windward rainfall with some
afternoon showers over leeward terrain. Lingering moisture around
the big island should trigger another round of afternoon
thunderstorms.

Gentle to moderate trades and unstable conditions will hold over
most the state Friday night and Saturday. The latest runs of the
gfs and ECMWF are showing some differences in the handling of the
mid- to upper- level trough. The GFS keeps the feature moving
eastward, while the ECMWF suggests that it will stall over the
central islands on Saturday. Expect unstable conditions to
persist. The trades will be strong enough to produce showers over
windward slopes. Thunderstorms could pop up anywhere during this
time, mainly over interior terrain during the day and windward
terrain at any time. With 0-6 km wind shear climbing to around 30
kt and ample instability, strong thunderstorms will be possible
over central and eastern portions of the island chain.

Building trade winds and decreased instability are expected on
Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF continue to differ on the upper level
features, so there is some uncertainty. The GFS pushes the now
cut-off mid- to upper-level low east of the big island, while the
ecmwf drifts the gradually weakening feature just southwest of
the state. The GFS solution would suggest lingering instability
over the big island and typical trade wind weather elsewhere. The
ecmwf solution points toward decreasing chances of heavy showers
and thunderstorms over most islands. For now, the forecast leans
heavily toward the gfs.

By Monday, trade winds will strengthen to locally breezy levels.

Uncertainty in the location of the low aloft remains, with the
ecmwf pointing toward a wetter and less stable pattern. Both the
gfs and ECMWF hint at deeper tropical moisture moving up from the
southeast Tuesday and Wednesday and potentially affecting the
southern end of the island chain.

Aviation
Light winds, combined with some instability over the big island,
have produced a few towering cumulus and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Ifr conditions are possible in and near thunderstorms,
with some improvement expected after sunset. Airmet sierra for
mountain obscuration was expanded to include all of the big
island this afternoon with the cloud buildup, but expect that to
be trimmed back, and possibly eliminated overnight.

Clouds have also increased over maui, so airmet sierra for
mountain obscuration was also expanded this afternoon to over the
whole island. Conditions should improve over maui overnight.

Winds will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours, and
thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon on the big
island. With the lighter winds, we could see additional clouds and
showers over all the islands tomorrow afternoon, which could
prompt additional airmets for mountain obscuration. Otherwise,VFR
conditions are expected.

Marine
Trade winds are forecast to remain weak through Friday night.

The trades may gradually strengthen from Saturday into next week.

The current forecast does not have small craft advisory (sca)
conditions over any of the coastal waters or channels through
Sunday night. SCA conditions may develop across the typically
windy waters adjacent to the islands of maui county and the big
island early next week.

Unstable atmospheric conditions are forecast to develop over
parts of the state beginning Friday night. This may cause locally
heavy downpours, and allow thunderstorms to form across some
areas this weekend. Mariners should monitor future weather
forecasts as this situation evolves.

The current north northwest swell will subside through this
weekend. The weak trades will cause surf to slowly decrease along
most east facing shores through Friday. However, some east facing
shores with a northerly exposure may continue to see small
breakers from the north northwest swell energy during the next
couple of days.

A new long period south swell is expected to Friday and peak this
weekend. Based on the latest guidance, surf will likely reach the
advisory criteria along south facing shores starting Saturday.

There is also a possibility surf may approach the high surf
warning threshold along south facing shores this weekend, before
the swell begins to gradually decline early next week.

See the latest collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast for
oahu (srdhfo), which was updated Wednesday afternoon, for more
details on swells and surf.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion... Wroe
aviation... M ballard
marine... Foster


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 14 mi37 min NNW 7 G 8.9 77°F 1012.6 hPa
51205 22 mi37 min 81°F7 ft
51213 31 mi37 min 83°F2 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 83 mi37 min 80°F4 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI14 mi73 minNNE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1013 hPa

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN17NE11NE8NE12NE12
G18
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1 day agoNE9NE7--NE5NE3NE4NE4NE4NE3E6E6NE10E6E4NE6E8NE9NW9NE12
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2 days agoNE7NE7NE6E4NE6NE4NE7NE4N4N4N4NE7NE7NE5NE6E6NE11NE11NE13N14NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Makena, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Makena
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Thu -- 12:07 AM HST     0.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:15 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM HST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM HST     1.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:33 PM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:59 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:47 PM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.91.11.31.61.71.71.61.41.10.80.50.40.30.40.60.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii) (2)
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Kihei
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM HST     1.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:15 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 AM HST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:09 PM HST     2.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:59 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:57 PM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.210.80.70.70.91.21.51.822.121.81.410.70.40.30.40.60.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.