Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olowalu, HI
May 15, 2024 5:09 PM HST (03:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 6:57 PM Moonrise 12:43 PM Moonset 1:12 AM |
PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 329 Pm Hst Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Wave detail: south southwest 3 feet at 6 seconds. Scattered heavy showers. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - South winds to 15 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday night - South winds 7 to 10 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Scattered showers, mainly in the evening.
Friday - Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming southeast 7 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas to 3 feet in the morning, then to 2 feet or less.
Friday night - East winds 7 to 10 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less.
Saturday night - East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas to 3 feet.
Sunday - East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less.
Monday - East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
PHZ100 329 Pm Hst Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters - A cold front approaching the state from the west will advance eastward and stall over oahu by late Thursday. The front will then weaken shift westward Friday. Slight chance of Thunderstorms starting Wednesday night and continuing into the weekend.
FXHW60 PHFO 160159 AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 359 PM HST Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A kona low developing about 500 miles north of Kauai will intensify and meander around well northwest of the islands into next week. The low will turn our local winds southerly, pulling copious moisture from the deep tropics over the islands. The deep tropical moisture will converge along a frontal boundary and will produce a prolonged period of heavy rain over Oahu and possibly parts of Maui County tonight through Thursday. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concern. Significant flooding will be possible over Oahu over the next few days and the threat will shift towards Kauai on Friday. Other areas away from the main band could see spotty downpours and localized flooding problems as well. The weather over the Aloha State this weekend and beyond will depend highly on the later evolution and movement of the kona low far to our northwest.
DISCUSSION
The main changes with this forecast package was to increase the southerly winds for tonight and Thursday. Latest observations across the state have been showing wind gusts of around 25 mph this afternoon for the windier sites. With the winds expected to strengthen a notch on Thursday, strong southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph is now expected on Thursday. Select areas on our typical windward side of the island could see pockets of wind gusts of up to 40 mph. As of now, the winds are expected to be below wind advisory threshold, but with saturated soils, it will likely not take much for a small tree to knock over.
The forecast still remains on track with a multi-day heavy rain event mainly starting tonight over Oahu. Not everywhere across the state will see the heavy rain and flooding impacts, but in the areas that do see heavy rain, significant flooding will be possible. The best way to describe this event, is like a fire hose shooting water. A steady stream of rain will be concentrated along a band and latest guidance is coming into better agreement that the fire hose will be focused mainly over Oahu and eventually moving into Kauai on Friday.
For Oahu, latest satellite imagery is showing the heavy band of moisture developing southwest of Oahu. We have seen echo tops of over 30 k ft, which increases the potential for heavier rain rates tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms should really ramp up tonight over Oahu and confidence is high for the fire hose of rain to focus over Oahu tonight through the day Thursday and persisting through Thursday night. Initial rainfall estimates for Oahu is a widespread 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated pockets of 8 to 10 inches through Thursday night. The most likely area for the heaviest rainfall totals will be over leeward and mountain areas with the latest high res models suggesting the heaviest rain over the western half of the island. The time period for the heaviest rainfall rates should be starting around midnight tonight and persisting through Thursday with steady 1 inch per hour rates and pockets of 2 inch per hour rates. Heavier rates will be possible with any thunderstorms. Due to the widespread rain event, large rises should be expected over streams with plenty of run off across low lying areas. Weather conditions should gradually improve Friday, but will still remain quite showery. For the weekend, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the rain coverage on Oahu but the bulk of the moisture should be towards the western end of the state.
For Maui County, although the current forecast is for the fire house of rain to be focused over Oahu, a slight shift toward the east could bring steady periods of heavy rain over parts of Maui County. For now, we are expecting showers to continue to move in from the south tonight with an increase of moderate to locally heavy showers late tonight through Thursday night. The most likely area for the heavier showers will likely be from west Maui westward including Lanai and especially Molokai where they will be closer to the heavy bands of rain. Breezy east to east-southeast trades will fill in on Friday, which will bring stable conditions and drier conditions over leeward areas. Over on east Maui, passing showers will likely increase on Friday. Over the weekend, we will likely see breezy to locally strong easterly trades. Some low level moisture could linger around the area, which could bring some showery conditions over the windward areas at times.
For Big Island, confidence is high that the main moisture band will remain well west of the Big Island. Some spotty afternoon showers will continue to remain possible, especially over the slopes Thursday afternoon, but with 500 mb temperatures warming (-7C), the atmosphere should be too stable to produce heavy rain rates. Thus, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for the Big Island. Over Kau and Puna districts, steady south winds will likely bring showery weather to the area but intensities should remain light to moderate. As far as winds, we saw breezy southerly winds pick up today and will likely pick up another notch on Thursday. Some gusty winds will be possible on Thursday with wind gusts of up to 40 mph across select localized areas downwind of terrain over lower Puna and South Hilo districts.
For Kauai, showers are starting to increase this afternoon as the front approaches the island from the west. Some locally heavy downpours are expected through this evening, but the showers are moving fairly quick. As the frontal boundary moves through this evening, shower coverage should decrease for most areas tonight, and increase over north Kauai Thursday morning, where periods of moderate rain will be possible. Although it will be wet and showery at times through Thursday (mainly windward and mountain areas), the main heavy rain event will likely begin on Friday and could persist through the weekend. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this weekend as a vigorous shortwave trough swings through the area. Latest ECMWF is starting to suggest the heaviest bands of rain could shift just west of Kauai on Saturday.
Confidence remains fairly good for heavy bands of rain impacting Kauai Friday through Friday night, but there is still plenty of uncertainty for the weekend. Stay tuned for more details, but there is potential for a significant flooding event over Kauai starting from Friday and possibly through the weekend.
AVIATION
An active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week, especially as a kona low develops to the NNW of Kauai. SHRA and a few TS will bring the potential for periodic IFR/MVFR conds on and off throughout the period. The main focus for SHRA/TS will likely be around Oahu and Kauai today and tonight as the kona low taps into some tropical moisture to the south and pulls it up through the western half of the state. Moderate southerly winds are expected today with higher gusts possible within/near SHRA/TS, then winds will become light once again overnight.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for all of the smaller islands and windward Big Island for mtn obsc. Sierra may be needed for IFR conds later this evening.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for the entire area for mod turb btn FL300 and FL400. Tango may also been needed for turb blw 080 as the kona low gets closer and conditions deteriorate this evening.
MARINE
A low developing north of the main Hawaiian Islands will push a front, now just west of Kauai, eastward across the state until it stalls over Oahu late Thursday and weakens. The remnant will then drift west through the remainder of the week. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front.
A series of overlapping, long period south swells will maintain near to below average surf along south facing shores through the near term. Renewed energy from the south will fill in late tomorrow night, generating above average surf by Thursday. Surf will then remain elevated through the weekend. A small medium period northwest swell peaked today. By tonight, a short period northwest swell associated with the developing low will spread across the area and peak near to just below High Surf Advisory threshold Thursday into Friday. West facing shores will see a bump in surf through the week due to overlapping northwest and south swells wrapping into exposed areas. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below normal through the weekend.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI AND MAUI THROUGH FRIDAY-
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 359 PM HST Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A kona low developing about 500 miles north of Kauai will intensify and meander around well northwest of the islands into next week. The low will turn our local winds southerly, pulling copious moisture from the deep tropics over the islands. The deep tropical moisture will converge along a frontal boundary and will produce a prolonged period of heavy rain over Oahu and possibly parts of Maui County tonight through Thursday. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concern. Significant flooding will be possible over Oahu over the next few days and the threat will shift towards Kauai on Friday. Other areas away from the main band could see spotty downpours and localized flooding problems as well. The weather over the Aloha State this weekend and beyond will depend highly on the later evolution and movement of the kona low far to our northwest.
DISCUSSION
The main changes with this forecast package was to increase the southerly winds for tonight and Thursday. Latest observations across the state have been showing wind gusts of around 25 mph this afternoon for the windier sites. With the winds expected to strengthen a notch on Thursday, strong southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph is now expected on Thursday. Select areas on our typical windward side of the island could see pockets of wind gusts of up to 40 mph. As of now, the winds are expected to be below wind advisory threshold, but with saturated soils, it will likely not take much for a small tree to knock over.
The forecast still remains on track with a multi-day heavy rain event mainly starting tonight over Oahu. Not everywhere across the state will see the heavy rain and flooding impacts, but in the areas that do see heavy rain, significant flooding will be possible. The best way to describe this event, is like a fire hose shooting water. A steady stream of rain will be concentrated along a band and latest guidance is coming into better agreement that the fire hose will be focused mainly over Oahu and eventually moving into Kauai on Friday.
For Oahu, latest satellite imagery is showing the heavy band of moisture developing southwest of Oahu. We have seen echo tops of over 30 k ft, which increases the potential for heavier rain rates tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms should really ramp up tonight over Oahu and confidence is high for the fire hose of rain to focus over Oahu tonight through the day Thursday and persisting through Thursday night. Initial rainfall estimates for Oahu is a widespread 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated pockets of 8 to 10 inches through Thursday night. The most likely area for the heaviest rainfall totals will be over leeward and mountain areas with the latest high res models suggesting the heaviest rain over the western half of the island. The time period for the heaviest rainfall rates should be starting around midnight tonight and persisting through Thursday with steady 1 inch per hour rates and pockets of 2 inch per hour rates. Heavier rates will be possible with any thunderstorms. Due to the widespread rain event, large rises should be expected over streams with plenty of run off across low lying areas. Weather conditions should gradually improve Friday, but will still remain quite showery. For the weekend, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the rain coverage on Oahu but the bulk of the moisture should be towards the western end of the state.
For Maui County, although the current forecast is for the fire house of rain to be focused over Oahu, a slight shift toward the east could bring steady periods of heavy rain over parts of Maui County. For now, we are expecting showers to continue to move in from the south tonight with an increase of moderate to locally heavy showers late tonight through Thursday night. The most likely area for the heavier showers will likely be from west Maui westward including Lanai and especially Molokai where they will be closer to the heavy bands of rain. Breezy east to east-southeast trades will fill in on Friday, which will bring stable conditions and drier conditions over leeward areas. Over on east Maui, passing showers will likely increase on Friday. Over the weekend, we will likely see breezy to locally strong easterly trades. Some low level moisture could linger around the area, which could bring some showery conditions over the windward areas at times.
For Big Island, confidence is high that the main moisture band will remain well west of the Big Island. Some spotty afternoon showers will continue to remain possible, especially over the slopes Thursday afternoon, but with 500 mb temperatures warming (-7C), the atmosphere should be too stable to produce heavy rain rates. Thus, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for the Big Island. Over Kau and Puna districts, steady south winds will likely bring showery weather to the area but intensities should remain light to moderate. As far as winds, we saw breezy southerly winds pick up today and will likely pick up another notch on Thursday. Some gusty winds will be possible on Thursday with wind gusts of up to 40 mph across select localized areas downwind of terrain over lower Puna and South Hilo districts.
For Kauai, showers are starting to increase this afternoon as the front approaches the island from the west. Some locally heavy downpours are expected through this evening, but the showers are moving fairly quick. As the frontal boundary moves through this evening, shower coverage should decrease for most areas tonight, and increase over north Kauai Thursday morning, where periods of moderate rain will be possible. Although it will be wet and showery at times through Thursday (mainly windward and mountain areas), the main heavy rain event will likely begin on Friday and could persist through the weekend. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this weekend as a vigorous shortwave trough swings through the area. Latest ECMWF is starting to suggest the heaviest bands of rain could shift just west of Kauai on Saturday.
Confidence remains fairly good for heavy bands of rain impacting Kauai Friday through Friday night, but there is still plenty of uncertainty for the weekend. Stay tuned for more details, but there is potential for a significant flooding event over Kauai starting from Friday and possibly through the weekend.
AVIATION
An active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week, especially as a kona low develops to the NNW of Kauai. SHRA and a few TS will bring the potential for periodic IFR/MVFR conds on and off throughout the period. The main focus for SHRA/TS will likely be around Oahu and Kauai today and tonight as the kona low taps into some tropical moisture to the south and pulls it up through the western half of the state. Moderate southerly winds are expected today with higher gusts possible within/near SHRA/TS, then winds will become light once again overnight.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for all of the smaller islands and windward Big Island for mtn obsc. Sierra may be needed for IFR conds later this evening.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for the entire area for mod turb btn FL300 and FL400. Tango may also been needed for turb blw 080 as the kona low gets closer and conditions deteriorate this evening.
MARINE
A low developing north of the main Hawaiian Islands will push a front, now just west of Kauai, eastward across the state until it stalls over Oahu late Thursday and weakens. The remnant will then drift west through the remainder of the week. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front.
A series of overlapping, long period south swells will maintain near to below average surf along south facing shores through the near term. Renewed energy from the south will fill in late tomorrow night, generating above average surf by Thursday. Surf will then remain elevated through the weekend. A small medium period northwest swell peaked today. By tonight, a short period northwest swell associated with the developing low will spread across the area and peak near to just below High Surf Advisory threshold Thursday into Friday. West facing shores will see a bump in surf through the week due to overlapping northwest and south swells wrapping into exposed areas. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below normal through the weekend.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI AND MAUI THROUGH FRIDAY-
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| PHOG KAHULUI,HI | 15 sm | 15 min | SSW 15G24 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.86 | |
| PHNY LANAI,HI | 17 sm | 13 min | S 12 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.94 |
Kihei
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM HST Moonset
Wed -- 01:49 AM HST First Quarter
Wed -- 05:05 AM HST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM HST Sunrise
Wed -- 11:09 AM HST 1.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM HST Moonrise
Wed -- 03:31 PM HST 0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM HST Sunset
Wed -- 10:42 PM HST 1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM HST Moonset
Wed -- 01:49 AM HST First Quarter
Wed -- 05:05 AM HST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM HST Sunrise
Wed -- 11:09 AM HST 1.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM HST Moonrise
Wed -- 03:31 PM HST 0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM HST Sunset
Wed -- 10:42 PM HST 1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Kihei
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM HST Moonset
Wed -- 01:49 AM HST First Quarter
Wed -- 05:29 AM HST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM HST Sunrise
Wed -- 12:06 PM HST 0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM HST Moonrise
Wed -- 03:34 PM HST 0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM HST Sunset
Wed -- 10:49 PM HST 1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM HST Moonset
Wed -- 01:49 AM HST First Quarter
Wed -- 05:29 AM HST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM HST Sunrise
Wed -- 12:06 PM HST 0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM HST Moonrise
Wed -- 03:34 PM HST 0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM HST Sunset
Wed -- 10:49 PM HST 1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kihei, Maui (Hawaii) (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Molokai/Honolulu,HI
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