Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lanai City, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:27PM Monday February 19, 2018 9:35 AM HST (19:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ118 Maui County Leeward Waters- 333 Am Hst Mon Feb 19 2018
Today..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 4 feet and east 3 feet. Haze. Scattered heavy showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds.
Tonight..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 4 feet and east 3 to 4 feet. Haze through the night. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered showers through the night.
Tuesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and east 4 feet. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and east 4 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Mixed swell northwest 4 feet and east 4 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 4 feet and east 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots veering east. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 4 to 5 feet and east 3 to 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots veering southeast. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 to 5 feet and east 4 to 5 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 333 Am Hst Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface trough near oahu will continue moving slowly westward today and tonight, then remain west of the state through midweek. Surface high pressure far northeast of the region will bring east to southeast winds over the waters to the east of the trough. Locally heavy downpours and isolated Thunderstorms will remain possible across the hawaiian waters today, then taper off to scattered lighter showers tonight and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lanai City, HI
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location: 20.78, -157     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 191328
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
328 am hst Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
The potential for flash flooding and strong thunderstorms will
continue today over the state as an upper disturbance and surface
trough remain in place. The threat will begin to diminish tonight
through Tuesday as the upper disturbance begins to lift north and
away from the state and some drier air begins to fill in from the
west. Light east to southeast winds, likely giving way to daytime
sea breezes and overnight land breezes, and isolated to scattered
showers will remain possible through midweek. A return of
unsettled weather will become a possibility once again Thursday
through the upcoming weekend as another upper low drops south into
the area.

Discussion
Although the widespread showers and storms that were impacting the
state yesterday afternoon into the overnight period have
diminished this morning, the potential for redevelopment still
exists today due to plenty of instability and moisture associated
with an upper trough and a broad surface trough located over the
state. Recent satellite and radar imagery showed thunderstorms
developing around the islands across the offshore waters as of
this discussion time, especially south of the big island within
100 miles. Provided the saturated soils from the activity
yesterday, additional heavy showers and storms could lead to
flooding in a short period of time. As a result, the flash flood
watch remains in effect through 6 pm hst today. At the summits,
the winter weather advisory also remains in effect through this
time (big island and haleakala), as well as a high wind advisory
(big island summits).

Tonight through midweek, the upper low impacting the local weather
is forecast to lift northeast and away from the state, allowing
the atmosphere to become more stable. Light east to southeast
winds are expected as a surface high will be centered to the
distant northeast, and the trough drifts and lingers to the
northwest of the islands. Daytime sea breezes and overnight land
breezes will result each day. The best chance for clouds and
showers will be through the afternoon periods over the interior
areas.

Thursday through the upcoming weekend, guidance remains in decent
agreement and suggests a return of unsettled weather setting up over
the state as another upper low drops south into the area. Plenty of
moisture is shown pooling northward over the state beginning late
Thursday through Friday (pws 1.5-1.8"). Provided the grounds already
being saturated from this event and last week, flash flooding
will become a concern through this extended period, as well as
strong thunderstorms. Additional fine tuning of the forecast for
this period will be likely over the next couple of days as
forecast confidence rises.

Aviation
With a slow-moving surface trough in the area, an upper trough
over the western part of the state, and plenty of low-level
moisture; the atmosphere continues to be unstable. Heavy showers
and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon today,
especially for the eastern isles. MVFR and isolated ifr conditions
may occur, so airmet sierra remains in effect for ifr, currently
for maui and the big island.

The trough aloft will also make turbulence likely. Airmet tango
remains in effect for turbulence above fl200.

The trough is also producing layered middle and high clouds. Light
icing will be possible in this cloudiness above the freezing
level.

Marine
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over
the hawaiian coastal waters today. Reduced visibilities, gusty
and shifting winds, frequent lightning, and possibly small hail
and waterspouts can be expected in any stronger thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm activity should shift northeast of the area tonight
and Tuesday, with drier weather and just scattered lighter showers
then expected through Wednesday.

Small to moderate northwest swells will continue through early
Tuesday, with surf remaining below advisory level along north and
west facing shores. However, a longer period northwest swell is
expected to spread down the island chain beginning Tuesday night
and peaking Wednesday. This may cause surf to approach advisory
level along some north and west facing shores, especially kauai
and niihau, during the peak of the event. This swell will
gradually subside Thursday, but another west-northwest swell is
expected Thursday night into Friday, then fading into the weekend.

A long fetch due to the flow around a surface high over the
northeastern pacific will send a short-period east swell into the
local waters during the next several days. This swell is forecast
to increase tonight and Tuesday, with resulting surf likely
reaching the advisory threshold of 8 feet along most east facing
shores Tuesday. This east swell is forecast to increase further
on Thursday and remain elevated into the weekend, with high surf
likely continuing along east facing shores.

Combined seas may increase to around 10 feet over most windward
waters starting late Wednesday due to the combination of west-
northwest and east swells, and local wind waves. A small craft
advisory may be needed from that time through the end of the work
week.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through this afternoon for niihau-kauai-oahu-
molokai-lanai-kahoolawe-maui-kona-south big island-big island
north and east-kohala-big island interior.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for
haleakala summit-big island summits.

Wind advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for big island summits.

Aviation... Kinel
marine... Jacobson
rest of discussion... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 29 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 6 71°F 77°F1014.7 hPa
51205 35 mi66 min 75°F7 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 57 mi62 min 74°F7 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lanai City, Lanai Airport, HI3 mi40 minNE 910.00 miFair69°F57°F68%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from HNY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS6S6N5NE27
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E8E10E13E12E10NE5N8N10N9E11E10NE9
1 day ago3SE7S10--SW8S10SW7NE6W9E7N7NE10NE6N3CalmNW3E4NE8E7E6SE4E6NE4S3
2 days ago4S53SW646W7W6W5NW4N3CalmNE3E3E3NE3E3E5CalmE4E3E7E54

Tide / Current Tables for Kaumalapau, Lanai Island, Hawaii
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Kaumalapau
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:13 AM HST     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:35 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:54 PM HST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:10 PM HST     1.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:09 PM HST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.611.31.61.81.71.51.10.70.30-00.10.30.711.31.41.41.20.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lahaina, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Lahaina
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:38 AM HST     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:13 PM HST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM HST     1.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:08 PM HST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.60.91.31.61.81.81.61.30.90.60.30.20.20.40.711.31.41.41.31.10.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.