Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 5:16 PM

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FXUS64 KBRO 060520 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1220 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

While SPC continues to place much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in a general thunderstorm outlook for today, the atmospheric conditions are not favorable for showers and thunderstorms. Based on the morning sounding there is a strong cap that will prevent showers and thunderstorms from forming and the upper levels of the atmosphere are still very dry. While the surface flow from the southeast allows for plenty of moisture to move into the region, it will not be enough to overcome the cap and the dry air. As such the short term forecast period is currently expected to be rain free.

The main story for the short term forecast will be the above normal temperatures. The high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s, with the western parts of the area getting into the upper 90s. With skies expected to be party cloudy in the morning then turning to mostly by late in the morning, there is not much in terms of relief from the heat during the day. Meanwhile, areas along the coast and the beaches will be in the 80s. On the other hand, the overnight low temperatures for tonight and Monday night are expected to be in the 70s. Skies are expected to become more cloudy during the evening tonight and Monday night.

For those going to the beach, moderate seas will continue to produce a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through Monday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Heat will become more problematic in the long term. Temperatures have been running around 5 degrees above average lately, but differences from average Tuesday through Thursday could increase to a positive 10 degrees. A dryline will set up shop to the west, never really penetrating very far into the CWA, but at the same time moderate to fresh southeast breezes will pump high dew point (in the 70s) air inland, placing an upward stress on heat index values.

The mid-level pattern will remain rather zonal most of the week, but ridging will become more apparent heading into next weekend.
Weather systems will thus, for the most part, avoid this part of the world through the week, yielding a dry forecast. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail, with increased sunshine taking over each afternoon. Marginal heat advisory conditions could develop Tuesday, Wednesday, and again Thursday afternoons for portions of the CWA Though high temperatures will hit triple digits over inland sections Tuesday through Thursday, heat index values will be tempered a bit by drier air. Wildfire fuels are in transition (drying trend), but do not see any obvious fire weather threat days just yet. Relative humidity values will be in the teens and 20s out west Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but winds will be a skosh too light for critical fire weather thresholds. Nonetheless, some enhanced wildfire growth and spread will be possible.

A cold front will push into the area late next Thursday ahead of the building weekend ridge, with increasing clouds late, and that could be enough to trigger convection moving out of the Sierra Madre Orientals and into the Upper Valley late Thursday evening lingering into Friday. Scattered showers may persist into Friday as the front pushes offshore. By Saturday morning a coastal trough will form with a warm front extending out from there into the Gulf. Though the warm front will lose definition through Saturday, a second cold front will push south over Texas on Sunday providing a broader coverage of showery precip.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through early Monday morning across the region.
Conditions will gradually improve to VFR by late morning or early afternoon, with intermittent MVFR ceilings possible through the late afternoon hours at BRO. Southeast winds around 10-15 knots with gusts upwards of 20 knots will prevail through the period.
Otherwise, another round of stratus is expected Monday evening once again.

MARINE
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Light to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas are expected to persist along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to occur though Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday night...Moderate to fresh southeast breezes will prevail through the long term. With those winds will come moderate to occasionally higher wave heights. Thus, expect here and there small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions. Synoptically, high pressure over the North Gulf will interact with lower pressure upstream to maintain a gradient supportive of moderate to fresh winds. Winds will shift to northeast on Friday once a cold front pushes through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 92 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 97 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 99 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 83 78 85 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 90 76 93 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

Puerto Vallarta
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Sun -- 01:32 AM CST     -0.22 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:42 AM CST     0.92 meters High Tide
Sun -- 01:36 PM CST     -0.10 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:27 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:40 PM CST     1.05 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, Tide feet

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