Saturday, November17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe-Guerra, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:17PM Saturday November 17, 2018 1:56 PM CST (19:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe-Guerra, TX
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location: 20.87, -105.44     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 171748 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1148 am cst Sat nov 17 2018

18z aviation update...

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Cloud cover will continue to increase through this taf
cycle. Initially,VFR conditions expected, however, cloud bases
will begin to drop into MVFR across all of deep south texas with
time. Isolated showers expected off and on before rain chances
increase during the day Sunday. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder
or two. Winds should remain generally around 10 knots or less out
of the south.

Prev discussion... Issued 356 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
short term (today through Sunday): an elongated 500 mb trough axis
will dig southwards into the central plains states today and sun.

The approach of this trough axis will push a cold front down into
southern tx late sun. Deeper layer moisture will pool ahead of this
elevated trough and cold front especially near the lower tx
coastline and extending out offshore in the western gulf of mex.

Since the 500 mb trough axis will likely be sheared out from west to
east across the central plains, the cold front will have some
difficulty clearing the rgv. Accordingly, the msl fields from the
short term guidance from the various model sets shows a strong
indication that coastal surface troffing will form up near the
lower tx coastline which will in turn help enhance the surface
convergence and the better pops QPF values across the marine areas
starting tonight and continuing into sun. Model blended pops
indicate chc pops starting tonight. The pops then increase and
become more widespread into Sun as the cold front pushes closer to
the rgv.

As the moisture levels increase and the low level WAA continues
through tonight and sun, the CAPE values will increase somewhat.

This will interact with the increasing low level convergence
associated with the approaching cold front to increase the risk of
some thunderstorms on sun. So will maintain a mention of isold t-
storms for tomorrow.

Low level CAA will be somewhat limited in behind the cold front on
sun. However the increasing cld cover and pcpn chcs will likely
lower the high temps some tomorrow. The NAM is the warmest for
highs tomorrow keeping the maxes in the lower 80s. The NAM met
numbers are also the outlier in comparison to the GFS and the ecmwf
numbers. So will lean closer to a blend of these two model sets
since the NAM is the odd model out.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday): an unsettled weather
pattern is expected through midweek. A weak cold front and surface
low pressure will move across deep south texas Sunday night into
Monday. However, models continue to differ on the timing and the
placement of the front and surface low pressure. The cold front is
expected to become stationary south of the rio grande river on
Monday as a coastal trough develops off the lower texas coast.

Overrunning should provide widespread rain across the area on Monday
and Monday night with the best rain chances along the coast. Higher
rain chances continue near the coast Tuesday into early Wednesday as
the coastal trough remains in place. A 500 mb shortwave trough
moves over texas on Wednesday with mid level ridging build over the
region. The coastal trough is expected to move northeast late
Wednesday into thanksgiving day. Lingering moisture may support
isolated showers along the coast thanksgiving day.

The GFS remains the warmest of the models for temperatures, the nam
is much colder, while the ECMWF is in the middle. Will lean towards
a combination of the latest superblend and previous forecast.

Thanksgiving day looks nice with mild temperatures and clearing

Marine (today through Sunday): a moderate SE surface flow will
prevail across the lower tx bay and gulf waters this weekend as
surface ridging prevails over the gulf of mex. Expect the swell
activity to increase steadily tonight into Sun possibly pushing into
scec borderline SCA criteria on sun. For know will not post up any
scas as overall confidence in the gulf conditions reaching sca
levels for an extended period of time is low.

Sunday night through Wednesday night... A weak cold front arrives
Sunday night into Monday morning. Elevated seas and moderate winds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front Sunday night and
continue through Tuesday night. A small craft advisory will be
possible across the lower texas gulf waters Sunday and Monday.

Marine conditions are expected to improve on Wednesday.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
aviation update... Frye-55

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
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Puerto Vallarta
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Sat -- 12:19 AM CST     0.31 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:05 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 AM CST     0.88 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:08 PM CST     0.41 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:55 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:19 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:38 PM CST     0.78 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.